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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Feb 20, 2023 • 33 tweets • 14 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The Feb 19-25 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NB, NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, ON
HIGH: NL, PEI, QC, SK
ELEVATED: AB, North

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. New surge/wave has started in multiple provinces. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast, which is p
Here's the link to the folder where you can find downloadable png and jpeg versions of all our graphics.

Shortform graphics are available in English et en francais.

Longform en francais a venir.

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
Here's the link to our full weekly Canadian COVID data report: covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
And here's where you can sign up to join any of our free, evening, anonymous (if you want) Zoom sessions.

Remember: No question is too small. No question is silly. YOU matter, and we're here to provide support.

covid19resources.ca/discussions/
Recommendations this week are still cautious, even for regions where forecast is currently ELEVATED or HIGH.

Why? Because waste water data are nearly 2 weeks old, but had started increasing in multiple places. Most Canadian provinces are likely now in or will soon enter a surge.
A key concern is that we're seeing increasing ICU admissions in the most recent 2 weeks of data compared to the preceding 2 weeks.

This is happening in multiple provinces, and in some it's quite a fast increase.

So, prudence is definitely warranted right now.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast, which is p
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
From @CDCgov:

About 1 in 5 adults have a health condition that might be related to their previous COVID-19 illness.

The best way to protect from long-lasting COVID symptoms is not getting COVID, and/or not getting it again. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Can has 3 smalle
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH

About 1 in every 103 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Newfoun
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH

About 1 in every 103 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~2X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~8X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 106 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Prince
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 106 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~10X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 31 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nova Sc
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 47 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for New Bru
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 47 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

QUEBEC

HIGH

About 1 in every 46 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Quebec,
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

QUEBEC

HIGH

About 1 in every 47 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 34 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Ontario
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 34 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~9X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

MANITOBA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 76 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Manitob
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

MANITOBA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 76 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

HIGH

About 1 in every 84 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Saskatc
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

HIGH

About 1 in every 84 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 70 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Alberta
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 70 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths: similar to lowest point This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 50 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for British
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 50 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~7X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NUNAVUT, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, YUKON

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 77 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the Nor
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NUV, NWT, YT

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 77 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
That's all folks.

I'm off to share this on Mastodon, then back to paper and grant writing.

Will check in again this evening.
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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
May 6
SCENARIO BASICS

This scenario is a one hour pickup basketball game at the rec centre gymnasium.

There are 5 or 6 groups of players bouncing and weaving around their respective nets.

The grandsons are joining a group and Nan sits in the bleachers watching. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: How safe is playing sports at the gym? Image: Two people in colourful jerseys and shorts, playing with a green basketball. One player is crouched with the ball, the other is guarding them. Text in a blue box on top left: 5 or 6 groups at the nets An hour of pickup basketball at the rec centre. Do I need to mask? How fresh is the air? Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: Man wearing N95 mask says: Activity Risks, Ask about air quality. Poor air, no mask $128*. G...
This Scenario Estimation can be used for various recreational activities as well.

The results here is for a gymnasium, a rec centre gym with high ceilings kind of space, that is 30’x30’ with 30’ ceilings.
The Estimation is for 30 people actively running around for an hour, after the facility has been open for several hours.

The scenario results can be leveraged to similar activities like a disco dance floor, and gyms that have weight rooms in them, as well.
Read 34 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Apr 14
Canadian COVID Forecast Apr 13-26, 2024

CANADA

MODERATE (no change)

About 1 in every 75 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Apr 13-26, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 3.55 About 1 of every 75 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 275,500-469,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.12X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 5.03X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 4.87X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 1.66X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR ...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Apr 13-26, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

MODERATE (no change)

About 1 in every 75 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~7X higher
-Deaths ~3X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Apr 13-26, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.46 About 1 of every 75 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,700-6,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.01X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 5.01X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 6.79X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 2.58X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 mon...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Apr 5
People have been asking about accounts to follow for H5N1 info.

Here are accounts that provide excellent, fast, thorough and judicious reporting and H5N1 discussions on Twitter geared toward people who are not technical experts

@HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett

cont'd...
@HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett @DelthiaRicks @weese_scott @deonandan @NGrandvaux @ProMED_mail (technical)

The wonderful @MackayIM is still here, but his account is now closed.
@HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett @DelthiaRicks @weese_scott @deonandan @NGrandvaux @ProMED_mail @MackayIM These are just a few people whose accounts I keep an eye on regularly to help me catch up/point me toward emerging info--they often share other good info and discussions.
Read 5 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Mar 31
Canadian COVID Forecast Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024

CANADA

MODERATE (no change)

About 1 in every 139 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~3X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.45 About 1 of every 139 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 68,900-249,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.12X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 3.19X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.15X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.09X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months W...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH (no change)

About 1 in every 151 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~5X higher
-Long COVID ~3X higher
-Hospitalizations ~8X higher
-Deaths ~6X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 6.12 About 1 of every 151 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 850-3,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.90X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 2.91X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 7.55X higher Deaths: HIGH; 5.91X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 mont...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Mar 17
Canadian COVID Forecast: Mar 16-29, 2024

SEVERE: SK
VERY HIGH: MB, NL
HIGH: CAN, AB, BC, NB, North, NS, ON, QC, PEI
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Mar 16-29, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 9.0 - HIGH Alberta: 6.8 - HIGH British Columbia: 9.4 - HIGH Manitoba: 13.0 - VERY HIGH New Brunswick: 8.5 - HIGH Newfoundland and Labrador: 11.2 - VERY HIGH North: 9.9 - HIGH Nova Scotia: 10.0 - HIGH Ontario: 8.2 - HIGH Prince Edward Island: 9.2 - HIGH Quebec: 8.6 - HIGH Saskatchewan: 16.1 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Forecast scores are gr...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score is the lowest it's been since the start of Omicron. About 1 in 47 people in Canada is currently infected. Forecast scores are dropping 7%/week for Canada (-15 to +3%/week for all regions). Graph showing estimated new daily infections for Canada, the provinces, and territories (15-day rolling averages) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 18 (Infections)
Read 16 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Feb 18
Canadian COVID Forecast: Feb 17-Mar 2, 2024

SEVERE: AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, NS, PEI, SK
VERY HIGH: CAN, North, ON, QC
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Feb 17-Mar 2, 2024 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 7.6 - VERY HIGH Alberta: 8.1 - SEVERE British Columbia: 9.2 - SEVERE Manitoba: 12.8 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 16.0 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 9.3 - SEVERE North: 7.6 - VERY HIGH Nova Scotia: 9.5 - SEVERE Ontario: 6.7 - VERY HIGH Prince Edward Island: 8.1 - SEVERE Quebec: 6.1 - VERY HIGH Saskatchewan: 9.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Ha...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

We're now seeing consistent decreases in most components of the Forecast (infections, healthcare system impact, deaths).

For the first time since August 2023, Canada and Ontario and Quebec have dropped below SEVERE.
Read 16 tweets

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