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NUFC. Data analysis and tactics.

Feb 22, 2023, 20 tweets

THREAD🧵: Loris Karius - A Chance for Redemption 🇩🇪

Yes, I’m making a thread on a player in preparation for what might be the only game he plays for us.

Karius has had an interesting story, and he's now likely to play an integral part for #NUFC on a day of huge importance.

Loris Karius is essentially remembered for one game, and one game only. His entire footballing career is unfairly defined by one performance as a 24 year-old, and his career has never really recovered from it.

The first error in that final was just a complete one-off moment, and the second one was a routine bit of handling which went wrong. It happens - especially considering that he was concussed at the time too.

Perhaps the period which settled his fate on Merseyside was actually the pre-season that followed where Karius looked so evidently shot of confidence.

A couple of big errors in friendlies saw him sent out on loan to Besiktas to regain some momentum.

He’s obviously much more than that whole situation though. To be starting in a Champions League final for Liverpool at 24 is clearly indicative of a goalkeeper who had gained the trust of his manager at the very highest level - and getting there requires genuine quality.

Loris Karius was snapped up as a 16 year-old by Man City, played for Germany at youth level, and was seen as one the national team's biggest goalkeeping prospects.

He had played 91 Bundesliga games at the age of 22, when he was given the no. 1 jersey for Liverpool.

If you read back through scouting reports from 2016, you’ll see loads of praise for him. “Excellent sweeper”, “brilliant reflexes” and “aerially dominant” were regular phrases to describe him.

That’s the real Loris Karius, and the one that has been forgotten.

Watching back through footage from his Mainz days, his time at Anfield, on loan at Besiktas, and even in the 45 minutes he played for us against Al-Hilal - there’s loads of truth in all of that.

His shot-stopping is satisfactory, and he possesses strong technical and positional fundamentals.

In his last PL season (17/18), Karius had a “goals prevented” (post-shot xG minus goals conceded) of -0.7, which put him 11th out of 27 GKs in the league.

Similarly, his save percentage is usually pretty solid. Obviously the quality of defence affects the quality of shots on target he faces, but the numbers stay consistent even in his Mainz and Besiktas says.

Karius is a solid but unspectacular shot-stopper.

I think the area of Karius' shot-stopping to be wary of is his handling - he'll occasionally fumble the ball first time, and pick it up on the rebound if possible.

With Rashford and Fernandes' ability to strike the ball from range with movement, this could be something to watch.

He was earmarked for his aggression from crosses upon signing for Liverpool, although on inspection of footage and numbers, that didn’t seem to always end well.

Pope is arguably the most aerially-dominant GK in the league, and this could be where we miss him the most.

An area where Karius really stands out is his sweeping, amassing the 2nd highest average distance of actions from goal in 17/18.

He’s quick out of his area to mop up behind the defensive line, which is a useful trait to have for any side.

Obviously there’s a risk in this, which increases the chance of errors, but that’s part of the role as Pope showed on Saturday.

Pope’s ability to sweep up is a huge part of our identity, and it’s good that we’ll have a GK who can replicate that.

Karius' ability with his feet is another bonus, and although he won’t be required to do anything fancy with the ball - it’s a useful quality to have.

Liverpool often played short from the back, and that’s reflected in Karius’ numbers.

Karius had the 3rd lowest Avg. Distance per Pass, indicating his ability to play short. Obviously that's part of what's been instructed of him, but it shows that Klopp trusted him to do it.

Also, he's quick to release the ball, which is useful for our counter-attacking threat.

And a final point, as it might come down to it - penalties. Karius has saved 16.7% of penalties in his career (average is around 11%), while de Gea has saved 8.1%.

That could be something that works in our favour if the game goes the distance.

I guess the point of all of this is to show that Loris Karius is more than that memorable sequence of events, and there’s still a player there - and here’s what we can expect of the man between our sticks on Sunday afternoon (unless Howe bins all of this and starts Gillespie 😅).

Karius’ story of promise, heartbreak, difficulties - and hopefully now redemption - is a fascinating one. He’s been through as much as anyone on a football pitch.

Reliving it all has made me appreciate it even more, and I’d love nothing more than for him to shine on Sunday.

The narrative around Loris Karius is as significant as it gets. The biggest game of the century for #NUFC, and we’ll have a keeper with an infamous record in finals making his debut.

But looking away from that, he’s an experienced and skilled goalkeeper. We can depend on him.

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