Market overview, key $SPX level to watch and info this week, CTA position info, general trends market, economic calendar, and various other info.
A short thread 🧵
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$SPX: As mentioned many times in previous tweets, 3950 has been held as a support from gamma, vanna, & as well as being 200 SMA. It all adds up from TA & PA perspective.
🔑 level to watch: $VIX- >22, bearish. 22-21 is chop. <20.60 for squeeze to 4040/4080.
RES @ 4065.
#SPY:
This is gamma (GEX) total profile for the next 2 expirations- mark 🔑 levels.
How to read this: MOST $$$ at $400 spy. (C/P). This means most hedging by MM.
Surprise? No. Major psych level & major 🧲 months!
Predominately bearish 395-390.
Less hedging aka dealers involvement these strikes, can suppress volatility unless $VIX pushes >21.80. And >22.30- big extreme moves.
In neg gamma , which means larger intraday moves with elevated $VIX.
IV drops- vanna kicks in, 🧲 to $400 spy , $spx 4010~.
$QQQ:
The tech indicator. Has shown quite a retrace since it’s run(due to CTA also being -12% short in January to net Long). CTA also net short here we stay below Friday’s high levels.
Apollo algo @_d3f4ult giving sell signal on 1H. Still holding and 🔑 watch $292.50/293
$DXY: Dollar on a vengeance?
Remember: $DXY is opposite of stock market. $DXY bullish is BAD for high beta (TECH QQQ), emerging markets and general all markets.
$YEN been approaching highs USD/YEN.
$EURO near lows. $DXY can be bullish here.
Good keep your 👀 on $DXY daily
$TNX: 10Y rate. I mention this a LOT.
What’s it mean? Rates rates rates.
This follows 10Y bonds, bullish 10Y= bearish $TLT.
Higher rates= more pain stocks due tighter lending standards.
“Plan laid out in pinned tweet”. Playing out perfectly 🙏🧲👀
Market economic calendar for this week:
* FEW fed speakers- god bless us! Lol
* Major vital data Thursday pre market. Friday semi quiet
Light week ahead compared to pasts but still vital to watch.
Credit: @TSDR_Trading .
What is this chart?
*Stock “breadth” > or < 40 DAY MA.
Notice over extension jan 3 to feb 2?
MA catching up.
Stocks leveraging patterns.
$TSLA and $APPL still strong, but energy death, financials etc.
As stock consolidate, MA catch up. 🔑 pivot
Master of matrix . @AlessioUrban
Lot going on here but quick summary for new folks:
Short term bearish. Long term bullish.
$VIX increasing
DEX negative short term. MM influence
-GEX negative, hence more volatility
Great tool to watch and learn from.
Key is to always adapt and learn and never let bias get in your way.
Play both sides. Sit it out.
I’m a bear. I’m a bull.
Biggest thing I am: learning & adapting.
Special shout-out everyone who puts in work to grow and learn.
Fib levels, supply demand etc 2 follow tmrw
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