The Architect Profile picture
Feb 27, 2023 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Market overview, key $SPX level to watch and info this week, CTA position info, general trends market, economic calendar, and various other info.

A short thread 🧵

Please ❤️ and 🔄 if you like this education information.
$SPX: As mentioned many times in previous tweets, 3950 has been held as a support from gamma, vanna, & as well as being 200 SMA. It all adds up from TA & PA perspective.
🔑 level to watch: $VIX- >22, bearish. 22-21 is chop. <20.60 for squeeze to 4040/4080.
RES @ 4065.
#SPY:

This is gamma (GEX) total profile for the next 2 expirations- mark 🔑 levels.
How to read this: MOST $$$ at $400 spy. (C/P). This means most hedging by MM.

Surprise? No. Major psych level & major 🧲 months!

Predominately bearish 395-390.
Less hedging aka dealers involvement these strikes, can suppress volatility unless $VIX pushes >21.80. And >22.30- big extreme moves.

In neg gamma , which means larger intraday moves with elevated $VIX.
IV drops- vanna kicks in, 🧲 to $400 spy , $spx 4010~.
$QQQ:
The tech indicator. Has shown quite a retrace since it’s run(due to CTA also being -12% short in January to net Long). CTA also net short here we stay below Friday’s high levels.

Apollo algo @_d3f4ult giving sell signal on 1H. Still holding and 🔑 watch $292.50/293
$DXY: Dollar on a vengeance?

Remember: $DXY is opposite of stock market. $DXY bullish is BAD for high beta (TECH QQQ), emerging markets and general all markets.

$YEN been approaching highs USD/YEN.
$EURO near lows. $DXY can be bullish here.

Good keep your 👀 on $DXY daily
$TNX: 10Y rate. I mention this a LOT.
What’s it mean? Rates rates rates.
This follows 10Y bonds, bullish 10Y= bearish $TLT.
Higher rates= more pain stocks due tighter lending standards.



“Plan laid out in pinned tweet”. Playing out perfectly 🙏🧲👀
Market economic calendar for this week:

* FEW fed speakers- god bless us! Lol
* Major vital data Thursday pre market. Friday semi quiet

Light week ahead compared to pasts but still vital to watch.
Credit: @TSDR_Trading .

What is this chart?
*Stock “breadth” > or < 40 DAY MA.
Notice over extension jan 3 to feb 2?
MA catching up.
Stocks leveraging patterns.

$TSLA and $APPL still strong, but energy death, financials etc.

As stock consolidate, MA catch up. 🔑 pivot
Master of matrix . @AlessioUrban

Lot going on here but quick summary for new folks:

Short term bearish. Long term bullish.
$VIX increasing
DEX negative short term. MM influence
-GEX negative, hence more volatility

Great tool to watch and learn from.
Key is to always adapt and learn and never let bias get in your way.
Play both sides. Sit it out.
I’m a bear. I’m a bull.

Biggest thing I am: learning & adapting.

Special shout-out everyone who puts in work to grow and learn.

Fib levels, supply demand etc 2 follow tmrw

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More from @astocks92

Mar 23
Thread Part 2:🧵 Building on previous thread with introductory break-down of "GREEKS"

How to analyze it when comes to:

Calls(Bought and Sold)

Puts(Bought and sold)

+ Above and Below Current Spot Price(X)

Table Cheat sheet!
JPM collar hedge(3/31) expiry explained!

🔽
🧵/2:

Quick Recap of Greeks:

Delta (Δ)

(+) for Calls, (-) for puts.

Closer to ±1 for ITM options, near 0 for OTM options.

Gamma (Γ)

Highest for ATM options (both calls and puts)
Lower for deep ITM and OTM options.
🧵/3:

Theta (Θ) (Time Decay)

Negative for long options, positive for short options
Magnitude increases as expiration approaches
ATM options= More Pronounced

Vanna (Sensitivity of Delta to Volatility)

Vanna (Sensitivity of Delta to Volatility)

(DVega/D Spot)

(+) for Long, (-) for Short options
Higher for ATM Options
Read 24 tweets
Mar 19
You Heard me talk about $VIX3M $VVIX

$UVXY and more.

What’s VIX term structure?

Why is it important?

Small 🧵

Must READ & SAVE Image
🧵/2:

VIX futures term structure chart represents the market's expectations for future volatility over the next several months.

Spot VIX is at 22 as of this moment ~
🧵/3:

Overall, the term structure suggests that while markets anticipate some stabilization, they still expect a relatively high level of volatility compared to historical norms.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 14
$SPX relief 😮‍💨 rally 🔜?

All the ⭐️ can align for a quick mechanical 🌊 ⬆️

$SPX 5565 level 🔑 with expiry 🔜

🧵 on what to watch for and what indicators tell you!

‼️‼️IMPORTANT INFO ℹ️
Thread 🧵 gives details but

*First: WATCHING $VIX

Also $VVIX and $VIX3M

Mechanical bid as kept volatility (long Vega) added in the system

Kept option premium ⬆️

NEED this start to come ⬇️, not just $VIX but $VVIX and $VIX3M
🧵/2:

Step 2:
$SPX 5565- JPM bought this puts so Market maker is short (opposite side).

Need $SPX sustain above ⬆️ 5565 and remain >5600 with STEP 1 cooling ⬇️

Drop in IV(VOL)= drop in Vega
Read 10 tweets
Mar 9
🗒️$SPY ran $10 ($SPX ~100) and your calls only did 60-80% (few days out)

or 40%~ 1+ week out

Most cases, this be 100%+

🧵on why profits were lower and what to look for next time in these "large intraday swings"

👇
🧵/2:

Options: Each option has a delta value, theta, and implied volatility
Also 2nd order Greeks but we are focusing on 1 for this thread

Implied Vol(IV):
🧵/3:

IV fluctuates based on "risk" market sees an option contract becoming ITM(in the money) and have to pay out to the transactional holder

Calls or Puts

As $VIX(measures spot volatility 30 days) increases or decreases, the term structure (IV highlighted in red) changes Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 22
🧵 Ever wonder why markets sometimes go completely crazy after options expiration? Buckle up - I'm about to explain why timing + volatility can create the perfect storm...
1/ First, let's talk about what happens during normal options expiration (OPEX).
Market makers are constantly hedging their positions to stay neutral.

It's like a carefully balanced dance.
.
2/ Two key players in this dance: Vanna (how delta responds to volatility changes) and Charm (how delta changes as time passes). These create stabilizing flows that help keep markets in check.
Read 17 tweets
Feb 12
 🧵 How I mastered GREAT win rate option trading.

Only focused on data. Charting turned off.

Success is not given overnight , it is a mindset.

Basic overview, strategies & guidance , most common mistakes!

Education ⬇️
Gamma: (GEX) , which is a dollar-denominated measure of option market-makers' hedging obligations.

Things to remember/bookmark:

▪️High GEX env = lot of hedging needed = liquidity is added(+ GEX) or subtracted (- GEX)

▪️+ GEX = + gamma = Long calls go 1.0(delta) as they become ITM

▪️ (-) GEX = long Puts go -1.0 as they become ITM

▪️+ GEX: IV(volatility is crushed), dips are bought, rips are sold. Liquidity is added . Moves are more controlled

▪️(-) GEX: IV expands (UP), dips and rips are executed in opposite manner- More unknown / faster more volatile moves

If you hear “+ gamma “ or “-“ gamma environment above  level, that’s what  means.

🧵/2
Delta: Measurement of change in option price as stock moves  or 

Between -1 and 1 for every option
-1 to 0 for Puts
0 to 1 for Calls

More “in the money” the strike moves to option, more value it gains, closer it gets to -1 for Puts or +1 for Calls

🧵 /3
Read 10 tweets

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