Market overview, key $SPX level to watch and info this week, CTA position info, general trends market, economic calendar, and various other info.
A short thread 🧵
Please ❤️ and 🔄 if you like this education information.
$SPX: As mentioned many times in previous tweets, 3950 has been held as a support from gamma, vanna, & as well as being 200 SMA. It all adds up from TA & PA perspective.
🔑 level to watch: $VIX- >22, bearish. 22-21 is chop. <20.60 for squeeze to 4040/4080.
RES @ 4065.
This is gamma (GEX) total profile for the next 2 expirations- mark 🔑 levels.
How to read this: MOST $$$ at $400 spy. (C/P). This means most hedging by MM.
Surprise? No. Major psych level & major 🧲 months!
Predominately bearish 395-390.
Less hedging aka dealers involvement these strikes, can suppress volatility unless $VIX pushes >21.80. And >22.30- big extreme moves.
In neg gamma , which means larger intraday moves with elevated $VIX.
IV drops- vanna kicks in, 🧲 to $400 spy , $spx 4010~.
$QQQ:
The tech indicator. Has shown quite a retrace since it’s run(due to CTA also being -12% short in January to net Long). CTA also net short here we stay below Friday’s high levels.
Apollo algo @_d3f4ult giving sell signal on 1H. Still holding and 🔑 watch $292.50/293
$DXY: Dollar on a vengeance?
Remember: $DXY is opposite of stock market. $DXY bullish is BAD for high beta (TECH QQQ), emerging markets and general all markets.
$YEN been approaching highs USD/YEN.
$EURO near lows. $DXY can be bullish here.
Good keep your 👀 on $DXY daily
$TNX: 10Y rate. I mention this a LOT.
What’s it mean? Rates rates rates.
This follows 10Y bonds, bullish 10Y= bearish $TLT.
Higher rates= more pain stocks due tighter lending standards.
Basic overview, strategies & guidance , most common mistakes!
Education ⬇️
Gamma: (GEX) , which is a dollar-denominated measure of option market-makers' hedging obligations.
Things to remember/bookmark:
▪️High GEX env = lot of hedging needed = liquidity is added(+ GEX) or subtracted (- GEX)
▪️+ GEX = + gamma = Long calls go 1.0(delta) as they become ITM
▪️(-) GEX = long Puts go -1.0 as they become ITM
+ GEX: IV(volatility is crushed), dips are bought, rips are sold. Liquidity is added . Moves are more controlled
(-) GEX: IV expands (UP), dips and rips are executed in opposite manner- More unknown / faster more volatile moves
If you hear “+ gamma “ or “-“ gamma environment above 🔑 level, that’s what ⬆️ means.
Delta: Measurement of change in option price as stock moves ⬆️ or ⬇️
▪️Between -1 and 1 for every option
▪️-1 to 0 for Puts
▪️0 to 1 for Calls
▪️More “in the money” the strike moves to option, more value it gains, closer it gets to -1 for Puts or +1 for Calls
▪️>90% options expire worthless. (Market makers and casino want you to lose; so find ways to have a value before option expires)
🧵THREADS of all THREADS.
Spreads: The EDU that skips 1000+ hours on YT, and books.
How to master what the "books" don't tell you.
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Level up the edu- 🧵⬇️
👉Defined Risk/Reward
👉Great for Low IV env
👉Volatility crush strategies exist as well
👉Best for sideways action(combination- Iron condor) 👉Theta(Contract price burn) works in YOUR favor-- Ie you collect Premium by selling the SPREADS
🧵
IRON CONDOR:
👉4 Options with same expiration date but different strike prices
👉2 options (Puts), 2 options (Calls)
👉Goal: Is for the stock to stay range-bound between 2 strikes(short side Call and Short side Put)
👉Inner options= Are called "bodies
👉Outer options=Are called "wings"
Fun stat: 90% traders do 0 Day options and <1 Week.. yet DONT understand basics of option?
🧵How to read each OPTION Greek.
Level up your EDU.
-How to see "options mis-priced" before PRICE moves?
Would you go play blackjack without knowing the rules?
Option basics:
-Changes in the price of the underlying.
-Time remaining until Expiration.
-Increase or decreases in implied volatility (IV).
-The premium of an option has two components:Intrinsic Value
Time (or Extrinsic) Value
Intrinsic value is only accumulated once price moves above the strike price of a call option or below the strike price of a put option.
Option pricing: The trifecta to start with is:
-Time
-Price
-Implied Volatility (not price or realized volatility)
Delta= Speed.
- price sensitivity of an option to changes in price is expressed by delta
- It is a %(MATH) that the option closes ITM
- Ranges from -1 to 1
- (-1)= ITM Put, (+1)= ITM Call
As time passes, Delta(chances) call going ITM decrease if Price remains constant OR goes opposite direction of option.
* Think of it like slowing down while driving a long trip
*Thus your delta goes towards 0 over time
Delta: Measurement of change in option price as stock moves ⬆️ or ⬇️
▪️Between -1 and 1 for every option
▪️-1 to 0 for Puts
▪️0 to 1 for Calls
▪️More “in the money” the strike moves to option, more value it gains, closer it gets to -1 for Puts or +1 for Calls
▪️>90% options… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…