Thread by @ArmedMaidan

Over 50% of Putin's army may now be KO'ed: my new Kyiv Post story

With >660K possible casualties, Moscow's disintegrating army may have just hit a desperate new milestone: It’s officially combat ineffective

kyivpost.com/post/14881

#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineRussianWar

Of ∼800,000 initial Russian invasion force and troops added later, Ukraine estimated 166,570 were killed as of 3/21

Based on Western estimates of a 3-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio for Russian losses in the war, that means ∼500,000 wounded, for a total of ∼666,000 casualties /2

Of the Russian wounded, based on calculations using data from previous wars and reports from the current war, I estimate 250,000 have returned to battle, 150,000 still getting medical care and 100,000 are permanently out of action 3/

This means nearly 420,000 Russian troops are dead or out of the fight, or 52% of the 800,000 total

A military unit that has lost over 50 percent of its personnel is commonly seen as needing to be withdrawn from battle because of a loss of combat effectiveness 4/

A 1997 US Army field manual says a unit with >50% losses is “combat ineffective” and “requires reconstitution before [its] next mission”

Soldiers may still be able to put up a fight, but not effectively as a cohesive military force

bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/sites.widener.…

5/

Based on the above data, Russia's army crossed the 50% threshold in mid-March, coinciding with reports of its offensive starting to peter out and Russia deciding to mobilize 400K more troops

It earlier crossed the threshold in October amid its catastrophic initial war losses 6/

Western estimates of Russian losses are lower than Ukrainian losses, but in my opinion they're implausibly low

An EU military official estimated them at 250,000 in mid-November, and they've remained in that range ever since - despite some of the heaviest fighting of the war 8/

Since mid-November, Ukraine's estimate of Russian losses has doubled.

Secondly, the 250,000 casualty estimate implies there are 650,000 Russian troops in and around Ukraine - about two times more than Western and Ukrainian officials believe are there 9/

Up to 350,000 RU troops are thought to be in and around Ukraine. Also, up to 97% of Putin's army is believed to be deployed to the war

Western estimates of RU losses don't add up with those figures and seem outdated or too conservative

Ukraine's figures are almost spot on 10/

Here's the whole thread all in one place

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1640025…

#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineRussianWar #RussianArmy