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Focusing on energy investing, #FIRE, churning credit cards, frequent flyer points, overseas travel and anything food related that doesn't involve offal and eggs

Mar 31, 2023, 5 tweets

NBF - Revisiting Liquids (Wet gas) Peers
-revisit the relative bias across our liquids peers:
$KEC, $KEL, $NVA, $PIPE, $POU (~250 mboe/
w/ $9-10b market cap
-recent management updates
~75% of CF in group from liquids (9% CFPS per $5 WTIΔ, 4% per $0.25 HH Δ)
1/x 🧵
#OOTT #COM

-Gas Resource Peer Comparables (Strip Pricing)
-2023e CFPS Sensitivities to +US$5/bbl WTI
-2023e WTI Breakeven Pricing (Strip Pricing) Including Hedging
-2024e/2023e Multiple Compression (Strip Pricing)
2/x

$KEL (OP & $7.50 TP)
$NVA (SP & $16 TP)
$KEC (OP & $25 TP)
$POU (OP & $37.50 TP)
3/x

$PIPE (SP & $4 TP)
-Montney Operator Map
-Breakeven Analysis (Ex-Hedging)
4/x

-Gas Pricing Sensitivity Analysis
-Montney Tear Sheet & Operator Map
4/x

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