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Focusing on energy investing, #FIRE, churning credit cards, frequent flyer points, overseas travel and anything food related that doesn't involve offal and eggs
Georges Cadoudal Profile picture 1 subscribed
Jan 13 11 tweets 6 min read
NBF - Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels (21 page report)
"2024 Outlook: Drive To Differentiate; If You Ain't First, You're Last"
1/11🧵
#COM #OOTT
Image 2/x
Key themes for 2024 - return of capital
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Apr 1, 2023 10 tweets 6 min read
DJ - Shaken, not stirred - 4Q22 review, and 2023/2024 estimates

Charts/tables edition 1/10 🧵

First up: 4Q22 Quarterly CFPS comparison

$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR
#COM #OOTT 2/x
2023-2024 capex
$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR
Mar 31, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
DJ - Shaken, not stirred—4Q22 review
-pullback a buying opportunity 1/x 🧵
Top picks:
$SU integrated
$TOU large cap gas
$ERF mid cap oil
$AAV mid cap gas
$SDE wet gas
$FRU royalty

$ARX.TO $CNQ $CVE $CPG $PEY.TO $PNE $TPZ $TVE $VET.TO $WCP $ATH $CR $HWX $NVA $IMO $MEG
#OOTT #COM 2/x
1. Cash flow continues to moderate but still provides robust returns
2. Staying on budget in 2023
3. Unbridled growth no more
4. Balance sheets are no longer a major issue for most companies
5. Is returning 100% of FCF the right number, or is it overkill?
Mar 31, 2023 5 tweets 4 min read
NBF - Revisiting Liquids (Wet gas) Peers
-revisit the relative bias across our liquids peers:
$KEC, $KEL, $NVA, $PIPE, $POU (~250 mboe/
w/ $9-10b market cap
-recent management updates
~75% of CF in group from liquids (9% CFPS per $5 WTIΔ, 4% per $0.25 HH Δ)
1/x 🧵
#OOTT #COM -Gas Resource Peer Comparables (Strip Pricing)
-2023e CFPS Sensitivities to +US$5/bbl WTI
-2023e WTI Breakeven Pricing (Strip Pricing) Including Hedging
-2024e/2023e Multiple Compression (Strip Pricing)
2/x
Mar 30, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
TD - Exploring Full-cycle Costs & Margins of Canadian E&Ps
-Which Companies Have the Lowest Full-cycle Costs?
gas $PEY.TO $AAV, oil $CPG $WCP
-Highest margins?
$PEY (cash cost), $SDE (F&D cost & tax pools), & $CPG (realized price & tax pools) then $ARX.TO
1/x 🧵
#COM #OOTT 2/x
2023E Full-cycle Cost – PDP F&D + Cash Expenses (ex. Hedging) at Strip

and

Full-cycle Cash Costs Relative to Commodity Mix
Mar 27, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
NBF - 2022's top Canadian wells by cumulative BOE and top AVG BOE/d production for Bakken, Cardium, Charlie Lake, Clearwater, Duvernay, Mississippian, Montney and Viking plays 🧵

$CPG still dominates the Bakken north of the 49th

#COM #OOTT Image Cardium

Led by $PEY.TO, Orlen, $CNQ, $SDE, $CVE, $WCP

Amazing diversity between gassy and liquidy! Image
Jan 18, 2023 14 tweets 5 min read
NBF - Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels - 13th Annual Energy Conference: Continuing Momentum

Summaries on: $AAV $BIR $CPG $HWX $KEC $PSK $SGY $TVE.TO $TPZ $VET.TO $WCP

Key themes:
-Inflation, Efficiencies and Inventory
1/14🧵
#COM #OOTT Key Themes (cont.)
-Complementing Inventory; Organically and M&A
-Emphasis for Return of Capital Remains
-Differentiation and Multiple Expansion?
2/x
Jan 15, 2023 15 tweets 6 min read
Peyto Exploration's next monthly dividend will be 11c and $1.32/year or a 9.8% yield. I've seen comparisons to $GXE.TO & $CJ.TO div, concerns on sustainability and concerns due to recent AECO/HH price drop. This report from TD shows it is sustainable.
1/x
#COM #OOTT $PEY $PEY.TO Netbacks and production rowing y/y
2/x
Jan 12, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
NBF - Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Report - Megathread
"2023 Outlook: Down, But Not Out"
Top 2023 ideas
Oil $CVE $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP
Gas $AAV $ARX $BIR $TOU
Themes
-Capex increase Y/Y
-Cash returns to rise
-M&A for inventory
-Historically discounted multiples
1/x
#COM #OOTT