Thread by @2lambro

Toxic but Profitable way to invest in an #IDO (Token Launch)

🔥 A thinking framework to valulate & invest in IDOs
with real example as always

using @LexerMarkets 's latest #DeFi project on @CamelotDEX launch as example

IDOs is a great way to capture a

🔹 Uptrend market,
🔹 Fork Season
🔹 My ETH L2 rotation thesis

but with limited capital n too many projects how should u analysis n invest?

🐑 Lambro got u!
its a bit toxic as a quick flip investor but profitable

This is a 3 step thinking framework before investing into an IDO

1️⃣ Why & what type of project are u investing?
2️⃣ Valuation is key
3️⃣ Ur Exit strategy

1️⃣ Why & what type of project are u investing?

Likely u won't find or invest into the next GMX
But Good ROI doesn't have to be best project

its about buying cheap n able to exit higher

Make sure u know why are u investing
be a toxic flipper 🤮 if it improves ur ROI 🤑

2️⃣ Valuation is key?
Example:
Perp Dex fork season

A great innovative project is raising at 50m fdv
A fork project is raising at 10m fdv

if the avg fdv of that Perp Dex is 50m

❓ Which one is more likely?
Going from 50m fdv to 100m fdv?
2x ur money

Going from 10m fdv to 30m fdv?
3x ur money

Its ok to go in both, but its about maximizing ur capital in a uptrend market

Im a ETH maxi, but i'd still buy a shitcoin that might 100x for trading

3️⃣ Ur Exit strategy
its about buying cheap n able to exit higher
if u bought cheaper but did not exit u still didnt make it.

heres a exit plan framework i use to think for short term IDOs

❓How much liquid token do u get from IDO?

❓What is the initial mcap?

❓Are there additional buy pressure on the token?

❓How much liquidity are there for the token?

👨‍🏫Using LEXER as reference

I will go through how i view its public sale
(full disclosure i invested in lexer in seed)

❓What is LEXER?
TLDR
GMX + GNS
so
more different asset to trade
more trading vol
more fees for token holders.

📍LEXER Valuation
1.34m 20m fdv

im not going to put GMX & gtrade coz im not a moon boy

Reference
Cap 32m mcap 38.4m fdv
MUX 39m mcap 50.1m fdv
UniDex 28.3m mcap 31.6m fdv
Level Finance 38.1 mcap 395m fdv
Metavault 6.1m mcap 25.8m fdv
Mummy Finance 7.5m mcap 48.7m fdv

📍Type of project & Valuation of LEXER

I like lexer's concept, idea of mixing different LP model to enable more things to trade, but before getting my hopium up. im not in it just for the tech.

Its a perp dex with interesting mechanics, comparing it with other small perp dex

📍My speculation
- arbitrum is still hot
- project is vetted by camelot
- it's initial mcap is only 1.34m even metavault is 6.1m lmao

📍Exit plan

Thoughts
- Public u get 50% liquid token n 50% vested over 24 months
- 50% of the fund raised will be used as DEX liquidity

If they raised 1m meaning there will be 500k worth of LP which is relatively thick LP for a 1.32m mcap token.

📍Conclusion
- Perp dex is still hot?

- Arbitrum is still hot

- low mcap compare to similar field

- camelot vetted team (although not all launchpad projects did well)

- One of the lower valuation launch on camelot

- 50% liquid token ( if it 2x ur vested token is basically free)

- Other public investors has 50% liquid token as well lol

- Private investors got cheaper valuation but only 10% initial unlock

- low mcap might be able to have a short term pump n exit to keep principle

Since im a seed investor in Lexer i won't comment action plan but this is my personal unbias thoughts if i was considering to join public sale

And frens, this is my thinking framework in IDO hope this provide value to u.

Since u have farm my knowledge, let me farm ur engagement,
like comment, follow me in all my social.

I tend to post stuff earlier there!

Another disclaimer,
i m not saying Lexer is a quick flip, the "toxic but profitable IDO strategy" is a click bait title.

As a seed round investor all i got is love for @dapandaETH and @LexerMarkets team!

Thanks for reading!
check out my other social for more early alpha

Toxic but profitable framework for IDO
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