Thread by @goldstone_tony

1/18 THOUGHT for the #Coronation W/E:

Our NHS is a "jewel in the crown" of UK. But pay in the NHS has been #RoyallyScrewed 👇

If you want to understand why nurses, junior doctors (& potentially consultants) are striking, start with this graph
Short🧵 pls read to end & share/RT

2/18 Firstly H/T @jburnmurdoch - the graph above was very much inspired by his excellent analysis & charts on NHS pay. This thread of his (which excluded consultants pay) is very much worth a read

@jburnmurdoch 3/18 But coming back to my chart you will see that measured against "consumer price index", pay versus that measure has completely failed to keep up inflation - with

Consultants ⬇️⬇️DOWN £38,764/yr
"Junior" docs (all gds) ⬇️⬇️DOWN £17,394/yr
Nurses DOWN ⬇️£5,146/yr

@jburnmurdoch 4/18 Its worth noting by the way that the term "junior" doctor includes all grades of doctors who may be 0-15 years after (5-6 years of) medical school - professionals who may be doing brain surgery independently & other complex tasks.

@jburnmurdoch 5/18 The most common come back when people talk about public sector pay is that "everyone has taken a hit" especially given high inflation, but as @JohnBMurdoch showed very nicely in his charts, NHS workers, especially junior doctors, have fared worst of all

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch 6/18 Adding in consultants to that chart, you can also see comparisons not only to "ALL workers in ALL sectors" (@ONS blue) but also perhaps a more apt comparator "professional, scientific & technical" (@ONS grey) .....

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS 7/18 Or since austerity was caused by the 2008 financial crisis whereby colleagues in the finance sector were able to create too much money, too quickly - lets add in the comparator of "Finance & Business Sector" (@ONS green line)

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS 8/18 Next Tuesday @CommonsHealth will be doing a topical evidence session considering the NHS strikes with @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA, @patcullen @rcn as well as @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed 9/18 My challenge to all of them on @CommonsHealth
@BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79
@MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej
@RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi

PLEASE look at these graphs and tell me its fair? Any of you?

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi 10/18 And if anyone says "but their pension is great" remember that pension is directly linked to pay - so huge erosion of their pay has led to huge erosion of their pension. So you *cannot* fix pay by robbing their pension.

#DontRobPetertoPayPaul
#DontRobPensiontoFixPay

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi 11/18 And as I explained last week

When Inflation 🔼📈(red shaded)- prices UP FAST

Inflation🔽📉(green)- prices still go UP but more UP SLOWLY

The crucial point is that *PRICES ARE ALWAYS GOING UP* (unless inflation is negative, which is rare)

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi 12/18 The *ONLY* way pay can compensate for this are with *CONSOLIDATED* pay rises, a one off "bonus" does nothing to help you pay NEXT years higher prices, or later years, or indeed higher prices in your retirement (another reason why rises must be consolidated i.e. pensioned)

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi 13/18 This weeks (albeit local) elections have shown two things IMHO

1) People are clearly not happy & I suspect very much at the top of the agenda is the perilous state of public services

2) The next general election will I believe be quite close & largely fought on the NHS

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi 14/18 It is also very clear that the problems in the NHS have been at least a decade in the making - waiting lists >7m, dire 4 hour A&E performance and worsening excess mortality 👇😔

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi 15/18 But equally past performance is not a guarantee for future performance, and Ive not heard ANY of the major parties explain how they will get out of this mess.

One example i.e. @wesstreeting - scrapping non-dom & doubling med student / nurses wont help IF you cant #RETAIN

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi @wesstreeting 16/18 My belief is we can *ONLY* fix this properly by getting those lines can get back to zero. Thats what "pay restoration" means. The ONLY way to get there is with ABOVE inflation, consolidated pay rises. The solution is as simple as that. That's what #payrestoration is

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi @wesstreeting 17/18 My analysis (like @FT one) used "CPI" which is preferred by government & economists. But I think there is a strong argument to use "Retail Price Index" - after all thats what government continues to use in student loans & also includes mortgage payments which are going up

@jburnmurdoch @JohnBMurdoch @ONS @CommonsHealth @ERunswickBMA @TheBMA @patcullen @rcn @NHSEmployers @NHSProviders @NHSConfed @BrineMP @lucyallan @PaulBlomfieldMP @paulbristow79 @MartynDaySNP @CGreenUK @PauletteHamilto @drcarolinej @RachaelMaskell @JamesMorris @TaiwoOwatemi @wesstreeting @FT 18/18 Our NHS is in a dire state. None of this is due to striking NHS workers, or (just) covid, but due to political choices @10DowningStreet

RT if you want this (or the next) government to make the choices to fix this mess now & properly #payrestoration #fixDDRB