Life-threatening heat today in Puerto Rico so hot that some meteorologists are astonished. And more of the same to come this week. Heat index numbers as high as 115-125 today!! So what is going on? There are many factors, so let's dig in... thread 1/
A pocket of Saharan dust is right over the island, leading to clear weather, helping boost temperatures. But there's a lot more....
Zoom out and we see a culprit. A large/ intense high (heat dome) forming just east of Puerto Rico, unusually far south, leading to a SE flow and drawing up high humidity. But also record warm Tropical Atlantic water temperatures helping boost dewpoints...
Yes the warm water is partially due to climate change, so it is a factor. Tropical ocean temps have warmed by ~2F. Also the natural distribution of "anomalously" warm water this year favors the tropics. Last summer it favored the North Atlantic... but there's more...
Now we arrive at the Wavy jet stream. The pattern right now is ludicrous in/ around North America. Blocky is an understatement. Some may be due to Typhoon Mawar's added wave breaking energy. But we are seeing these blocks more often especially during spring/ summer...
There's a lot of work being done to figure out the link between climate change, blocks and the wavy jet. The loss of sea ice and uneven heating at the poles is likely a factor in high latitude blocks. This leads to a very amplified pattern, big blocky lows and heat domes...
Next, we have a developing El Nino adding tons of energy to the mix. The subtropical jet is screaming, but that is more of a winter time phenomena than summertime for El Nino. With that said, when you overlay that on the prevailing pattern I can only surmise it amplifies...
The bottom line: As we go deeper into 2023 and El Nino intensifies, we should expect a stunning year of global extremes which boggle the meteorological mind. The base climate has heated due to greenhouse warming and a strong El Nino will push us to limits we have yet to observe.
@MichaelEMann did some work on Quasi Resonant Amplification. Summer is favored. But you'll have to ask him if this could be a case of that? science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
@JFrancisClimate did the ground breaking work on the wavy jet stream. Again I'll let her chime in if she thinks this pattern resembles her research iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
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