Velyka Novosilka, a thread.
I've been asked about this enough and considering the developments of today on the Tokmak axis, it's good to get it out of the way.
Information presented here is mostly based on satellite data from monday as well as Russian video and reports.
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Do note, all of this is at least two days old in terms of satellite imagery, and the rest is based on things the Russians themselves have published on various channels.
It's very unlikely that any of what I am going to say is new to the Russian forces in Ukraine.
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US officials have claimed that Ukraine has penetrated 5-10km into the Russian depth. This can be true according to Russian reports as well as satellite imagery from Monday.
Remember: Russians losing ground is often implied by glorious defensive successes moving south.
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The official's claims seem to be credible both according to the Russian reports as well as Sentinel imagery from Monday morning but don't necessarily mean that Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough yet.
Let's examine what is being reported and what we know.
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The Ukrainian offensive started in earnest on Monday the 5th of June. According to Russian reports, the offensive was conducted by 3 brigades, with Ukrainians attacking in company team- or battalion size.
Satellite data generally supports these claims.
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Russians claim these units are the 23rd, 31st, and 37th brigades. Only 37th can be confirmed with moderate confidence through OSINT due to the presence of AMX-10 RC's and Mastiff MRAP's on Russian videos.
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According to Russian reports and videos, the Ukrainians have attacked the Velyka Novoselivka bulge from all sides with reports focused around the villages of Novodarivka in the east, Novodonetske in the west, and the ridgeline near Neskuchne and Storozheve in the middle.
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Russians only sparsely talk about the push towards Urozhaine though. According to terrain, this is an important attack vector. Sentinel imagery shows signs of fighting.
The edge of Urozhane is almost 10km from Velyka Novosilka.
🙂
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In fact, the heaviest offensive action has likely taken place on both sides of the Mokri Yaly River. At Urozhaine and Neskuchne-Storozheve. These attacks support each other.
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According to Russian reports, after three days of fighting the Ukrainians have established positions on the dominant heights west of Storozheve.
This action protects the flank of the attack down the road toward Urozhaine.
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Further east there has been fighting for the village of Novodonetske, with destroyed equipment from the village shown on Russian telegram channels. The T-64 is old news, but the mastiffs are new.
It's unclear who controls the village as of now.
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However, there was mention of Ukrainians bypassing Novodonetske for Kermenchyk on Monday. However, the settlement hasn't been really mentioned since and Russians claim they threw the Ukrainians backs.
That is around 5-8km from the Ukrainian start line
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So what's the assessment based on this?
The Russian defensive victories haven't moved much further south yet, so I'll assume that fighting is taking place roughly along these lines.
If that is true, then the situation is "not great, not terrible"
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Fighting is still largely taking place in the forward positions of the Russian defenses. Losses have been taken especially from mines and artillery. The overall casualty rate and condition of the UA force is unknown.
It's clear that some battalions have suffered greatly
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However, with the capture of the height at Storozheve the Ukrainians are in a good place to continue offensive operations. It's also likely fixing the Russian 127th and 42nd Motorized Divisions
Even then it's still a long way to go to the Russian main defensive line.
14/15
With things kicking up in Zaporizhzhia, it remains to be seen how important the Velyka Novosilka AO will be in the future or if it is just a fixing operation.
However, it's possible that the Ukrainians might see which axis achieves more and then reinforce success.
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This analysis was done in cooperation with other members of @Black_BirdGroup. We have a logo now and perhaps soon something more formal.
You can find our constantly updated situation map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine at scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…
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