John Helin Profile picture
Jun 7, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Velyka Novosilka, a thread.

I've been asked about this enough and considering the developments of today on the Tokmak axis, it's good to get it out of the way.

Information presented here is mostly based on satellite data from monday as well as Russian video and reports.

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Do note, all of this is at least two days old in terms of satellite imagery, and the rest is based on things the Russians themselves have published on various channels.

It's very unlikely that any of what I am going to say is new to the Russian forces in Ukraine.

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US officials have claimed that Ukraine has penetrated 5-10km into the Russian depth. This can be true according to Russian reports as well as satellite imagery from Monday.

Remember: Russians losing ground is often implied by glorious defensive successes moving south.

4/
The official's claims seem to be credible both according to the Russian reports as well as Sentinel imagery from Monday morning but don't necessarily mean that Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough yet.

Let's examine what is being reported and what we know.

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The Ukrainian offensive started in earnest on Monday the 5th of June. According to Russian reports, the offensive was conducted by 3 brigades, with Ukrainians attacking in company team- or battalion size.

Satellite data generally supports these claims.

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Russians claim these units are the 23rd, 31st, and 37th brigades. Only 37th can be confirmed with moderate confidence through OSINT due to the presence of AMX-10 RC's and Mastiff MRAP's on Russian videos.

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According to Russian reports and videos, the Ukrainians have attacked the Velyka Novoselivka bulge from all sides with reports focused around the villages of Novodarivka in the east, Novodonetske in the west, and the ridgeline near Neskuchne and Storozheve in the middle.

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Russians only sparsely talk about the push towards Urozhaine though. According to terrain, this is an important attack vector. Sentinel imagery shows signs of fighting.

The edge of Urozhane is almost 10km from Velyka Novosilka.

🙂

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In fact, the heaviest offensive action has likely taken place on both sides of the Mokri Yaly River. At Urozhaine and Neskuchne-Storozheve. These attacks support each other.

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According to Russian reports, after three days of fighting the Ukrainians have established positions on the dominant heights west of Storozheve.

This action protects the flank of the attack down the road toward Urozhaine.

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Further east there has been fighting for the village of Novodonetske, with destroyed equipment from the village shown on Russian telegram channels. The T-64 is old news, but the mastiffs are new.

It's unclear who controls the village as of now.

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However, there was mention of Ukrainians bypassing Novodonetske for Kermenchyk on Monday. However, the settlement hasn't been really mentioned since and Russians claim they threw the Ukrainians backs.

That is around 5-8km from the Ukrainian start line

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So what's the assessment based on this?

The Russian defensive victories haven't moved much further south yet, so I'll assume that fighting is taking place roughly along these lines.

If that is true, then the situation is "not great, not terrible"

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Fighting is still largely taking place in the forward positions of the Russian defenses. Losses have been taken especially from mines and artillery. The overall casualty rate and condition of the UA force is unknown.

It's clear that some battalions have suffered greatly

13/
However, with the capture of the height at Storozheve the Ukrainians are in a good place to continue offensive operations. It's also likely fixing the Russian 127th and 42nd Motorized Divisions

Even then it's still a long way to go to the Russian main defensive line.

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With things kicking up in Zaporizhzhia, it remains to be seen how important the Velyka Novosilka AO will be in the future or if it is just a fixing operation.

However, it's possible that the Ukrainians might see which axis achieves more and then reinforce success.

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This analysis was done in cooperation with other members of @Black_BirdGroup. We have a logo now and perhaps soon something more formal.

You can find our constantly updated situation map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine at scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

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More from @J_JHelin

Mar 13
SITREP 13.03.2025: Ukraine withdraws from Kursk.

Over the past 10 days, a Russian offensive pushed Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk salient, ending a 7-month operation.

What happened? Why did Ukraine withdraw? What’s next? 🧵

You can read a longer version on our Substack

1/ Image
In August a Ukrainian offensive captured over 1200 km² of Russia's Kursk oblast.

The claimed goals were to draw Russian forces from Pokrovsk, capture leverage for negotiations and spoil a Russian operation from Sumy. It was likely also meant to shift the discourse.

2/ Image
However, the Ukrainians failed to expand & secure their flanks and over the next 6 months the Ukrainian perimeter in Kursk diminished steadily. By the beginning of March the Ukrainians only held a bit over 300 km² of terrain in a narrow salient around the town of Sudzha.

3/ Image
Read 27 tweets
Mar 8
I think there is some flawed logic here. In general the article fail to compare and contrast the Ukrainians and the Russians on similar grounds.

To an outside observer it feels like picking and choosing talking points instead of a completely honest assessment of the situation. Image
For example, the authors engage with assessments of Russian casualty numbers, yet fail to mention how Ukrainian officials have multiple times now published UA casualty numbers that indicate, at best, a 1:2 overall casualty ratio.

Current ratios may, naturally, differ from that.
It also ignores the enduring Ukrainian manpower issue that Ukraine has seemingly been unable to solve, while Russian recruitment is, according to Ukrainian intelligence, able to replace the casualties it's taking in Ukraine.

One needs to consider that when talking of attrition.
Read 20 tweets
Dec 23, 2024
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.

In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.

A quick thread on the situation in South Donetsk. 1/

1/ Image
General situation:

Although the Russian pace of advance slowed in December they've continued their advance in southern Donetsk.

Pictured in darker red is the situation at the beginning of December, light red is Russian advances.

2/
The most difficult situation has emerged around the Kurakhove salient where the Russians are advancing both on the northern and southern flanks.

The Ukrainian situation here is especially dangerous because of the limited logistical routes.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 27, 2024
SITREP: South Donetsk

After breaching Selydove and Hirnyk early in the week, the Russians started offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction on Friday..

Due to these developments the situation on the South Donetsk frontline has turned very difficult.

Dark red = 20. OCT

1/ Image
Vuhledar front:

On Friday the Russians began large scale attacks towards Shakhtarske and Bohoiavienka.

They gained ground quickly, advancing almost 7km towards Shakhtarske.

These attacks were supported by large scale artillery and air bombardments.

2/
In Bohoiavienka the Russians had managed to advance within 3km of the town before Friday.

Although the initial attacks may have been repelled, video footage from Bohovienka and reports from Shakhtarske indicate that Russians have a strong foothold in both villages.

3/ Image
Read 21 tweets
Oct 23, 2024
After a few weeks of (relatively) lower intensity actions, the Russians have resumed offensive operations in the Selydove-Hirnyk area, south of Pokrovsk.

In the past few days, we've seen the Russians make tactical gains throughout the AO.

Selydove direction, a thread.

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As said, after an operational pause and transfer of reinforcements, the Russians have restarted offensive operations.

They are taking advantage of Ukrainian lack of manpower and using infiltration tactics, sending small infantry units through gaps in the Ukrainian line.

2/
The Russian advance here has been relatively rapid, over the past three days. Pictured is the confirmed change since monday.

According to unconfirmed reports, the Russians may control much of the grey area.

Confirmed advance is up to 2,6 kilometers, but likely further.

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Read 24 tweets
Sep 14, 2024
Just a reminder, at least a part of the 59th is in the salient north of Krasnohorivka.

We've repeatedly seen the willingness of the Ukrainians to spend lives over territory, but in recent months these sort of complaints from the front have become increasingly common
Image
With the experienced brigades being drawn to Kursk and getting replaced with greener ones, and with increased pressure, it seems the UA high command is expecting to do more with less. If the line doesn't hold it seems the blame is pinned on the soldiers, not the orders.
Some have blamed the increase in these sort of orders and repercussions on Syrskyi, and I there may be some truth to it.

However, we also saw these style of stubborn static defense actions in Bakhmut and under Zalushnyi.

So I think it's a political/strategic demand.
Read 10 tweets

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