Thread by @ryanmofarrell

A thread on Friday night’s massacre at Mpondwe Lhubirha secondary school by the ADF, during which at least 42 people including 38 students were killed, 7 others injured and at least six kidnapped and taken across the border into DR Congo.

Officials stated that around 5 ADF fighters locked the doors of the boys’ dormitory before burning it, while killing female students with firearms and machetes. A guard and three local residents were also killed. Graphic pictures of the aftermath corroborate this account.

Mpondwe Lhubirha secondary school had received significant support from community members and organizations in Hillsboro, Oregon, a suburb of Portland. oregonlive.com/hillsboro/2015…

The school is 1.6km from the Tako river, which forms the border between Uganda’s Kasese district and DR Congo’s Beni territory. West of the school in Congo is the Mwalika valley in Virunga National Park, where the ADF have maintained camps since the late 1990s.

These camps have come under intense military pressure by FARDC and UPDF in recent months, and infamous ADF commander Elias Segujja aka Mulalo or Fezza was reportedly killed during a clash in Mwalika on Feb 27. ADF responded by killing over 100 people in nearby areas in March.

Previous attacks on ADF camps in Mwalika in November saw the ADF push south and establish new camps closer to Lake Edward, consistently attacking villages near Karuruma, Museya and Kyavinyonge. Given proximity, these camps are likely the origin of the group that attacked Mpondwe.

There has been some consternation in Ugandan public opinion over the late response to the attack, which took place within 3km of a UPDF border post and within 5km of 5th Battalion headquarters. 5th Mountain Battalion responded, but arrived after the ADF fighters had already left.

Mpondwe forms the Ugandan side of the border crossing with DR Congo’s Kasindi. The crossing is amongst the most important in eastern Congo, with significant commercial traffic. The ADF had previously killed 8 civilians in Kasindi on June 11.

Attacks on schools in Uganda earned the ADF much infamy during its early years. Infiltrating through the Rwenzori mountains, 80 students were killed in Kichwamba on June 8, 1998. The ADF’s first attack into Uganda was its weeklong seizure of Mpondwe in November 1996.

Similarity to ADF’s cross-border raids into Uganda during the late-1990s have raised questions about its strategic goals. But it is crucially important to recognize the shift in its ideology and focus since pledging allegiance to Islamic State in 2017

The group, particularly in its internal propaganda releases published outside IS’s media apparatus, have emphasized establishing a place “ruled by Muslims” inside Congo, rather than using Congo as a staging ground for overthrowing Museveni, as was early leadership's objective.

It now seems that the ADF’s objectives regarding Uganda are centered more on terrorism and retaliation for Operation Shujaa than a desire to seize power in Kampala. The vast majority of its victims since 2014 have been local Congolese civilians, with more than 5000 killed.

With much of the group’s manpower now comprised of forcibly-recruited Congolese and ideologically-motivated jihadists from Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, etc, conquering Uganda almost certainly has less salience than when the group was solely intent on taking power in Kampala.

It is far more likely that this attack, the failed Dec 2022 raid into Ntoroko and the series of suicide bombings and IED attacks in 2021 are a product of both the ADF becoming a regional hub for terrorist attacks and retaliation for significant losses during Operation Shujaa.

Outdated narratives doubting ADF’s connections to Islamic State continue to be repeated, but the debate is over. ADF's leadership explicitly says they are now ISCAP, closely communicates with IS and has received massive inflows of money & recruits from IS. nytimes.com/2023/06/17/wor…

The ADF offers Islamic State a hub for terrorist attacks throughout the region, facilitated by significant inflows of money raised by other Islamic State affiliates in Africa.

This money is laundered through a sophisticated apparatus, and my team documented a minimum of $280k being moved between Sept 2019 and Oct 2021 alone. The total is almost certainly much higher. extremism.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/…

As long as this money continues to fuel terror plots and sustain growing membership recruited via IS networks throughout the region, the ADF will be able to sustain its armed campaign in Congo, its cross border raids into Uganda and terrorist attacks throughout the region.