Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

Russian forces have faced notable challenges, dealing with substantial losses, logistical hurdles, morale issues, and equipment deficiencies. To further analyze, I will examine several training grounds to assess whether they have reached critical levels. 🧵Thread:

2/ Due to security considerations, detailed information regarding enemy personnel and vehicle concentration across russia shouldn't be disclosed. Instead, I will provide general overview of two training grounds in Rostov and Volgograd oblast

3/ Kadamovskyi military training ground in Rostov Oblast, Russia, serves as one of the several training grounds for the 150th motor rifle division, which falls under the Southern Military District. A substantial number of units from this division are currently deployed in Ukraine

4/ Upon examination, the camp seems to be heavily used, with a considerable number of vehicles utilized. Notably, the largest vehicle parking area accommodates approximately 175 trucks and other unarmored vehicles, alongside 61 armored vehicles, including tanks and IFVs.

5/ After conducting a comprehensive analysis and comparing images from February 2023, it is evident that the tented camp, situated just north of the main camp, consistently houses incoming and rotating recruits, actively preparing them for their involvement in the war in Ukraine

6/ Another training ground, actively utilized for training both active servicemembers and recently mobilized troops, is the Prudboi camp and training grounds. This site is frequently employed by the Southern Military District and notably exhibits a significant presence of tanks.

7/ Based on July 2023 satellite imagery, the largest vehicle parking area is observed to host around 85 trucks and other unarmored vehicles, complemented by approximately 50 armored vehicles, predominantly tanks.

/8 After analyzing many photos from social networks and other sources, it becomes evident that Russian forces still maintain a considerable number of tanks in operational condition. Consequently, statements insinuating that they are almost depleted of equipment are not accurate

9/ It is true that russians have been employing outdated tanks like the T55/54 predominantly in the South for the past year. Despite their age, these tanks pose a significant threat as they engage through indirect fire, corrected by drones, making them unreachable for AT means.

10/ Before concluding, it's crucial to highlight a few details: not all vehicles are stored outdoors; some are located indoors. Due to Russia's longest in the world border, the allocation of forces across various regions limits their deployment solely to Ukraine.

11/ Considering russian political instability, exemplified by the Wagner mutiny, I am inclined to think that a potential power collapse and internal struggle among elites, driven by military defeats will let us liberate all occupied territories. But we are not there yet.

12/ As predicting the number of defeats needed for the regime's collapse is nearly impossible, we must simply concentrate on continuous military defeats of russians. We must prioritize efforts both internally and externally, as our current actions are proving insufficient.

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