Thread by @PaulSkallas

Today on the Lindy Newsletter

We do not know how to stop population decline

lindynewsletter.beehiiv.com/p/will-world-l…

One of the defining features of our current age is declining fertility rates. Once society achieves a certain threshold of economic well-being the society than begins to have a lot less children.

Large swathes of the planet is under replacement including China, The US, Europe,… https://t.co/H8CJkZvcKOtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Once you start looking into why people have less children you realize no one really knows why this is happening.

This is a phenomenon that is occurring in radically diverse countries like Iran, China, Switzerland and Poland.

It's not just theoretical now. People who are in their 30s and 40s now see half of their friends or classmate group opt-out of having kids.

There's a growing cultural split between parents and non-parents happening today

Some people will point to different reasons for this happening but they all fall apart under close scrutiny

1) People can't afford kids.

That does't make sense. The world is richer now than ever before.

2) The government is helping society enough

That reason doesn't hold up to scrutiny either. Lots of Euro countries are spending a lot of money on raising TFR and none of it is working.

3) Society isn't as religious as before

It is true that very, very extreme religious groups like the Amish or orthodox jews are reproducing at a higher rate than the population. but those are niche groups.

If you look at other religious countries like Iran or Bangladesh you'll… https://t.co/FMooUzX4njtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

4) Women working is the issue

Again, this sounds persuasive until you look into countries where women have a lot of flexibility or are culturally shielded by work. Then this argument falls apart.

This is the new normal and the market is adjusting.

New construction that includes floor plans in the cities are not for families anymore. They are for singe people or for roommates.

The demand isn't there for families

What are other consequences for population declines.

some of them are obvious.

1) Many universities will go bankrupt as fewer students exist. A small number of money-making colleges will get richer

2) Tinder unveiled a new $500 a month option. That's something only someone… https://t.co/XyShBm9yOYtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

There's something that happens to you when you have kids that changes your vision and values. Your first priority when you have kids is your kids. Pets become diminished in importance. Something inside of you changes.

there are all of these social movements happening these days. Many of them seem excessive and overbearing.

When you don't have kids, you start focusing on pets. You focus on a lot of external issues like animal rights or your perceived societal injustices

you don't have a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

So as more and more people stop reproducing, we should be expecting more social movement issues to be prominent. The macros takes precedence over the micro

What that will be? I have no idea. I assume things like Environmentalism or other issues.

One of the side effects of Celibacy in religions is transmitting empathy from the micro to the macro

In Catholicism every priest has to be celibate

In Orthodox the bishops have to be celibate.

You're not here to serve your kids. You're here to serve the world

Women without kids are going to have a lot of discretionary income and control much of the entertainment preferences

Universities have begun cutting programs

This is just the beginning

Many won't survive