Thread by @OAlexanderDK

The failed rocket launch is looking more and more like the culprit in the attack on the hospital.

This video shows the impact a few moments after an interception.

The building burning in the video is the hospital.

Note the distinctive shape and solar panels on the roof of the building in the foreground.

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H/T @COUPSURE + @ELINTNews

@COUPSURE @ELINTNews The blast at the hospital happens less than 20 seconds after a large volley of rockets is launched at Israel with a trajectory over the hospital.

A good point has been made that this looks more like a rocket motor failure than interception.

Looking closer at the video I agree. A plum can be seen coming off the rocket a second before the aerial explosion.

This could explain the fact that we see two blasts on the ground.

After the rocket motor failure, the rocket disintegrates. One part lands first causing a small blast, likely part of the motor.

The warhead then lands on the hospital causing the larger blast.

More geolocation

With the information currently available, this seems like the most plausible scenario at the moment.

Ideally we could see images of the debris at the site to confirm the culprit, but given the situation that is going to be impossible.

IDF drone footage of the hospital from after the attack shows damage that is a lot more consistent with a failed rocket than a JDAM.

Majority of the damage is concentrated on the car park, with no visible crater.

Hopefully we get footage from the ground today in the daylight

First image of the blast site in daylight.

Again no evidence at all of a JDAM strike and further evidence of a failed rocket launch.

Vast majority of the damage concentrated in the parking lot of the hospital.

This image also has the exact same number and distribution of vehicles as the released IDF drone footage, confirming the veracity of both.

This image what looks to be the only crater that has been visible in any of the currently released footage of the hospital blast.