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Oliver Alexander Profile picture
@OAlexanderDK
Oct 17, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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The failed rocket launch is looking more and more like the culprit in the attack on the hospital.

This video shows the impact a few moments after an interception.
The building burning in the video is the hospital.

Note the distinctive shape and solar panels on the roof of the building in the foreground.

(31.5051383, 34.4612642)

H/T @COUPSURE + @ELINTNews
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@COUPSURE @ELINTNews The blast at the hospital happens less than 20 seconds after a large volley of rockets is launched at Israel with a trajectory over the hospital.
A good point has been made that this looks more like a rocket motor failure than interception.

Looking closer at the video I agree. A plum can be seen coming off the rocket a second before the aerial explosion.

This could explain the fact that we see two blasts on the ground.
After the rocket motor failure, the rocket disintegrates. One part lands first causing a small blast, likely part of the motor.

The warhead then lands on the hospital causing the larger blast.
More geolocation
With the information currently available, this seems like the most plausible scenario at the moment.

Ideally we could see images of the debris at the site to confirm the culprit, but given the situation that is going to be impossible.
IDF drone footage of the hospital from after the attack shows damage that is a lot more consistent with a failed rocket than a JDAM.

Majority of the damage is concentrated on the car park, with no visible crater.

Hopefully we get footage from the ground today in the daylight
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First image of the blast site in daylight.

Again no evidence at all of a JDAM strike and further evidence of a failed rocket launch.

Vast majority of the damage concentrated in the parking lot of the hospital.
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This image also has the exact same number and distribution of vehicles as the released IDF drone footage, confirming the veracity of both.
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This image what looks to be the only crater that has been visible in any of the currently released footage of the hospital blast.

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jan 29
🧵The past 12 hours have seen very significant U.S. Air Force movement indicating an operation against Iran has likely been approved:

After a day layover, GOLD flight of KC-46A tankers are now dragging 6x EA-18G Growlers to Spain, where they will likely continue on to Qatar. Image
A conga line of C-17s have today flown out of several bases in the U.S. heading for Europe and the Middle East.

This includes 9 C-17 flights from Fort Hood which are likely the final air defense assets being moved to the AO near Iran.
The E-11A BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) has flown to Al Udeid which brings one of the final critical assets into the AO near Iran Image
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jan 24
🧵What does the video of the latest ICE shooting show us? A break down of what is visible:
First shots were fired by this officer as the person attempts to get back to his feet. The shots were fired into the man's back from the officer as seen in screenshot 2. Image
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Immediately after the first shots, the officer's scatter and the initial shooter fires several more rounds while backing up, as the man is lying motionless on the ground. Image
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jan 2
🧵1/10: Since the last thread, several things have shifted at once. Liquidity is tighter, REPO use is higher, household stress is clearer, and fiscal pressure is rising. The system is still working, but on thinner margins.

📷: @evgen1232007 Image
2/10: REPO has crossed an important line. It no longer spikes and fades. It keeps stepping higher and staying there. Recent auctions near ₽4.7tn show banks now rely on the central bank as a permanent funding source.
3/10: At the same time, net system liquidity has fallen deeper into negative territory. This means REPO is replacing lost deposits, not smoothing temporary gaps. That makes the system more fragile.
Read 10 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 27, 2025
🧵1/12: Russia’s economy hasn’t collapsed, but it is suffering immensely. It still runs, but only because the central bank keeps it alive with constant REPO liquidity. What was once emergency support is now the daily operating system.

📷:@evgen1232007 Image
2/12: REPO usage shows the stress clearly. Trillions of rubles are borrowed week after week by the banks with no unwind. Banks aren’t smoothing short-term shocks anymore. They are refinancing theirs and the economy's survival on a rolling basis. Image
3/12: Oil used to stabilize everything. Now it doesn’t. Russian crude sells at deep discounts due to Western and kinetic sanctions, and tax revenue per barrel keeps falling. Even when export volumes hold, the state earns far less from each barrel. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 28, 2025
Elvira Nabiullina is by far the most competent person in the Russian government and has almost single-handedly managed to keep the Russian economy afloat for the past year despite increasing pressure from above to change key policies. Image
She is however rapidly running out of black magic and the creative accounting required to continue her success. With Israel/Iran not causing the expected oil price surge, the record deficit is increasing and the methods of financing it are dwindling.
OFZs are being sold at record levels to state owned banks, but the high interest rate means the income is only just enough to cover the payments due on last year’s bonds.

The NWF’s liquid assets dipped below the government deficit last month further adding to the headaches.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 21, 2025
Summary of the significant evidence that the B-2s currently airborne are a strike package heading directly for Iran:

1. Immediate refuelling after departing from Whiteman Air Force Base indicates that the aircraft are carry close to their maximum payload.
If not an immediate strike, it is highly likely that the ordnance would have be pre-positioned at Guam or Diego Garcia with C-5 or C-17 transport aircraft in order to save the logistical headache of the additional aerial refueling and airframe stress.
2. If the B-2s continue onward to Iran they will arrive on target a few hours prior to opening of the Futures market at 6PM ET Sunday. This will give the Trump administration time to host a press briefing to calm the markets before they open.
Read 5 tweets

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