Thread by @TrentTelenko

What you are seeing here in these Black Sea storm are wind fields causing a mass casualty event with Russian VKS rotary wing aircraft in Crimea, S. Ukraine & S. Russia.⬇️

Any rotary wing craft w/o a hanger & unable to fly out before the storm will be heavily

Storm damage🧵
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...damaged.

The historical example here is the 1989 Mother's Day Microburst that destroyed the US Army helicopter fleet at Fort Hood.

A microburst disabled 2/3 of all the AH-64A Apaches in the world with that one weather event.
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Plus one hundred other US Army helicopters were damaged as well.

The winds in this Black Sea storm are 26 meters/sec, or lightly under 65 miles an hour sustained winds.

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The old Soviet Union put all of its hardened aircraft shelters in Western Ukraine facing NATO.

Eastern Ukraine, Crimea & Russia...?

Not so much.
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So we are going to be seeing a lot of Russian VKS helicopters rotors looking like this sort of wind storm driven modern art.

And that is only the beginning of the logistical problems the Russians are going to have from this storm.

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Semi-tractor trailers have a really hard time in high winds.

The Youtube video below gives you a good idea what Black Sea storm winds are now doing to Russian Semi-tractor trailer rigs on roads from Crimea & Rostov-on the Don.

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There are a lot of Semi-tractor trailers cycling out of Crimea from both Krasnoperekopsk and Dhzankoy resulting in huge miles/kilometers long traffic jams.

Imagine what this storm is going to those rigs right now.
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Crimea has lost at least 1/4 of its power and Rostov-on-Don is suffering a huge geography focusing storm surge that will beach a large number of fuel barges RuAF forces depend upon.

Russian landing craft operating from Yevpatoriya northwards are facing 9 meter (30 ft) waves.

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And as @CovertShores has pointed out, the booms covering Sevastopol and the Kerch Straits Bridge are also eating those same 9 meter waves.

Both targets will be naked for Ukrainian boat-drones immediately after the storm abates.

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With neither operable booms on the water, nor operational helicopters in the air, Russian fleet and bridge infrastructure will be uniquely vulnerable to Ukrainian boat-drone interdiction efforts for a week to 10 days, minimum.

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And clearing the Black Sea "Snowmageddon" Storm-overturned Russian semi-tractor trailers piling up right now on Russian ground lines of communications to the Russian Army in Ukraine will take several several days.

(Note: US Semi-truck used for illustration)

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I'm thinking now that this Ukrainian attack against Russian power for their electric railways in Donetsk, slowing supplies to Avdiivka, included the weather report on this
Black Sea Storm to leverage Ukraine's "Death of a Thousand Cuts".

12/12 End

@threadreaderapp unroll please