Thread by @TrentTelenko

Ukrainian media is reporting the shoot down of a VKS A-50 AEW&C and a Il-22 Coot ELINT plane over the Sea of Azov.

Russian signals intelligence warnings shut down the Kerch Bridge earlier in the day, thinking the PSU sorties were a Su-24 strike.
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1/
rbc.ua/rus/news/zsu-p…

I think it likely the PSU gave off the signals of a Su-24 Storm Shadow strike and actually sent out Su-27's hunting, tricked out with 100(+) km range AIM-120C's.

Think of the WW2 "Operation Vengeance" P-38 raid that killed Adm. Yamamoto.

2/

NASAM's launchers use AIM-120C-5/7.

If HARM missiles can be fitted to Mig-29 & Su-27's. So can an AMRAAM.

You would need an external radar sensor and a a Link 16 compatible digital radio on the Su-27 to pull it off.

3/

VKS A-50 or Il-22's orbiting at 9,000 meters over the Sea of Azov can be tracked by a ground based radar at just under 500 km.

If the PSU "strike package" volleyed a lot of ADM-160 MALD at the Kerch Bridge to get VKS fighters protecting the A-50 to

4/

...commit to protecting the bridge.

It would give a single Ukrainian PSU Su-27 a chance to break within 100 km and blarf a volley of lock on after launch AMRAAM against these converted cargo & airliner planes.

5/

The US fighter pilots don't like 'pitbulling' the AMRAAM when they "Fox 3."

That is, firing a AIM-120 seeker in the lock on after launch (LOAL) with missile seeker doing autonomous homing at range.

This is because there tends to be more US fighters than enemy fighters.

6/

To use ~2008 fighter pilot slang:

"Shake a pitbull up in a sack and when you let out. It's goes for the first thing it sees.
In which case, you have a 'mad dog' event."

A PSU Su-27 fighting one on many doesn't have this issue.

7/

Ukraine could only pull this AMRAAM Ambush once.

They decided to make a high operational risk/high operational pay off poker bet and won the pot.

8/8 End

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