Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 15, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Ukrainian media is reporting the shoot down of a VKS A-50 AEW&C and a Il-22 Coot ELINT plane over the Sea of Azov.

Russian signals intelligence warnings shut down the Kerch Bridge earlier in the day, thinking the PSU sorties were a Su-24 strike.
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rbc.ua/rus/news/zsu-p…
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I think it likely the PSU gave off the signals of a Su-24 Storm Shadow strike and actually sent out Su-27's hunting, tricked out with 100(+) km range AIM-120C's.

Think of the WW2 "Operation Vengeance" P-38 raid that killed Adm. Yamamoto.

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NASAM's launchers use AIM-120C-5/7.

If HARM missiles can be fitted to Mig-29 & Su-27's. So can an AMRAAM.

You would need an external radar sensor and a a Link 16 compatible digital radio on the Su-27 to pull it off.

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VKS A-50 or Il-22's orbiting at 9,000 meters over the Sea of Azov can be tracked by a ground based radar at just under 500 km.

If the PSU "strike package" volleyed a lot of ADM-160 MALD at the Kerch Bridge to get VKS fighters protecting the A-50 to

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...commit to protecting the bridge.

It would give a single Ukrainian PSU Su-27 a chance to break within 100 km and blarf a volley of lock on after launch AMRAAM against these converted cargo & airliner planes.

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The US fighter pilots don't like 'pitbulling' the AMRAAM when they "Fox 3."

That is, firing a AIM-120 seeker in the lock on after launch (LOAL) with missile seeker doing autonomous homing at range.

This is because there tends to be more US fighters than enemy fighters.

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To use ~2008 fighter pilot slang:

"Shake a pitbull up in a sack and when you let out. It's goes for the first thing it sees.
In which case, you have a 'mad dog' event."

A PSU Su-27 fighting one on many doesn't have this issue.

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Ukraine could only pull this AMRAAM Ambush once.

They decided to make a high operational risk/high operational pay off poker bet and won the pot.

8/8 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 18
We have just seen over Moscow today - with Ukrainian drones - the Russo-Ukrainian War's version of the RAF’s first 1,000-bomber raid of World War II, codenamed Operation Millennium, which took place on the night of May 30–31, 1942.

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Operation Millennium, marked the first tactical deployment of the RAF "bomber stream".

That is, the tactic of flying a dense, tightly timed formation along a narrow corridor to overwhelm German radar networks and anti-aircraft defenses of the Kammhuber line.
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When I look at the design of the air defense rings around Moscow.🧐⬇️

I can't help but think Ukraine used a 2026 "Drone Stream' to saturate one sector of these ring defenses like the RAF did to the Kammhuber line.

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Read 4 tweets
Jun 18
Since you asked...we need to talk about Russian truck logistics in the age of destroyed at will by Ukrainian drones Russian refineries.

Russian industrial infrastructure reflects the Soviet WW2 "one big vertically integrated factory" experience.

Soviet industrial legacy🧵
1/
The Soviets built their industrial plants to minimize transportation impact on its railway system, and later, it's trucking.

This 2013 time stamped Jon Parshall presentation on WW2 US vs German Vs Soviet tank industries underlines this Soviet reality

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In the 1950's and 1960's the CIA and Strategic Air Command (SAC) Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) targeting planners discovered this quirk of the Soviet centralized economy.

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Read 12 tweets
Jun 18
The negative air defense reality of a 2,700km range one-way attack drone cannot be overstated for Russia or the USA.

Let us consider for a moment a Cuban "OWA-Drone Crisis" akin to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Drone threat 🧵
1/
Via a question to @grok of Cities of 500K(+) in OWA Drone range:

"Distances are approximate great-circle (straight-line/air) from Havana or central Cuba; actual drone paths could vary due to routing, wind, altitude, & launch site (e.g., closer to Florida from western Cuba)
2/
All listed cities are well under 2,700 km.Florida and Southeast (easiest reach)

Miami, FL (~370 km / 230 miles) — Well within range.

Jacksonville, FL (~1,000–1,100 km) — Within range.

Tampa/St. Petersburg area (metro >500k in cities/urban) — ~400–500 km.

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Read 14 tweets
Jun 14
Fearless prediction: N. Ireland will be 90%(+) migrant free in 3 months.

It is now clear to me that what we are seeing in N. Ireland is a sectarian pogrom.

One which will in 3 months be utterly successful in driving out 90%(+)...

N.I. "Troubles Pogrom"🧵
1/
...of the migrants the UK government has placed there. Then Liverpool will be next.

The UK government utterly failed to stop mutual Catholic/Protestant pogroms in the late 1960's early 1970's troubles.  When half N. Irish population was nominally...

2/
...on-side with UK/N.I. law enforcement. The situation is far worse now.

Currently the vast majority of white middle and working classes in Northern Ireland are on-side with the anti-migrant pogrom...

3/
Read 19 tweets
Jun 13
The problem with this analysis is it leaves out the drone & power projection capabilities of the PLA and Taiwan's highly vulnerable off shore islands.

PLA & PLAN parachute, heliborne & marine landing forces can take all of those small islands as a coup de main for drone, SAM & MLRS bases.
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The ability of Taiwan to operate it's HIMARS is tied directly to it's ability to deny China drone air superiority inside Taiwanese air space.

China can throw 1 million OWA drones to suppress Taiwanese air defenses to take those off shore islands.

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The PLA holding the Pescadores, Green and Orchard islands as launch platforms for HQ-9 SAM's, heavy MLRS rockets and Hornet class truck hunting drones means it can overwatch & reduce Taiwanese beach defenses, all while denying air space to ROCAF fighters.

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Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
Russia faces a logistical dilemma in occupied Ukraine for which it has no good solutions.

Crimea is a de facto island fed by road and rail bridges Ukraine can now destroy at will, and Russia cannot stop.

And Ukraine is destroying those bridges.

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Russia's air defense has suffered a nearly complete "Lanchester Square Collapse" proximate with the Ukrainian mass deployment of both 150 km range AI truck hunting drones and bridge busting FP-2 OWA drones.

Map H/T United24media
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Any route Russian trucks take to Crimea will result in parking lots near replacement pontoon bridging for both those kinds of drones to exploit.

"Trucks that mass together...die together.

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Read 4 tweets

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