Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 15 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Ukrainian media is reporting the shoot down of a VKS A-50 AEW&C and a Il-22 Coot ELINT plane over the Sea of Azov.

Russian signals intelligence warnings shut down the Kerch Bridge earlier in the day, thinking the PSU sorties were a Su-24 strike.
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1/
rbc.ua/rus/news/zsu-p…
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I think it likely the PSU gave off the signals of a Su-24 Storm Shadow strike and actually sent out Su-27's hunting, tricked out with 100(+) km range AIM-120C's.

Think of the WW2 "Operation Vengeance" P-38 raid that killed Adm. Yamamoto.

2/

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NASAM's launchers use AIM-120C-5/7.

If HARM missiles can be fitted to Mig-29 & Su-27's. So can an AMRAAM.

You would need an external radar sensor and a a Link 16 compatible digital radio on the Su-27 to pull it off.

3/
VKS A-50 or Il-22's orbiting at 9,000 meters over the Sea of Azov can be tracked by a ground based radar at just under 500 km.

If the PSU "strike package" volleyed a lot of ADM-160 MALD at the Kerch Bridge to get VKS fighters protecting the A-50 to

4/
...commit to protecting the bridge.

It would give a single Ukrainian PSU Su-27 a chance to break within 100 km and blarf a volley of lock on after launch AMRAAM against these converted cargo & airliner planes.

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The US fighter pilots don't like 'pitbulling' the AMRAAM when they "Fox 3."

That is, firing a AIM-120 seeker in the lock on after launch (LOAL) with missile seeker doing autonomous homing at range.

This is because there tends to be more US fighters than enemy fighters.

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To use ~2008 fighter pilot slang:

"Shake a pitbull up in a sack and when you let out. It's goes for the first thing it sees.
In which case, you have a 'mad dog' event."

A PSU Su-27 fighting one on many doesn't have this issue.

7/
Ukraine could only pull this AMRAAM Ambush once.

They decided to make a high operational risk/high operational pay off poker bet and won the pot.

8/8 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Sep 23
Given the latest failure of the Russian Sarmat ICBM...

...it is time to ask some hard questions about the combat readiness of the RU nuclear triad.

Extraordinary claims of Russian nuclear readiness now require extraordinary evidence🧵
1/
This is the 4th failed test attempt of the "combat operational" RS-28 Sarmat Heavy ICBM.

The RS-28 is a derivative of the original R-36M / SS-18 which was Ukrainian built and maintained until 2014.

2/
The RS-28 Sarmat was to replace the Ukrainian built/maintained SS-18 SATAN.

Russia had to reverse engineer SATAN's Ukrainian missile technology to make Russian knock-off tech and supposedly uprated engines for 3 Avangard​ HGV or a FOBS payload.
3/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sar…
Read 31 tweets
Sep 18
This is no surprise.

People saying Ukrainians could not maintain F-16's were and remain utter fools and tools for people who want Ukraine to lose.🤢🤮

1/
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I've been saying this about the maintenance capabilities of the PSU for years.

They have an economy that is deeply penetrated by computers because of their egalitarian wealth distribution.

This makes US F-16 style two level maintenance easy peasy.
2/
The "Western Military Experts" that Politico talked to in early 2023 were made fools of by the information on Ukrainian maintainer performance in the @ralee85 post above.

3/

Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 18
This Foreign Policy article did not age well:

The False Promise of Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Into Russia By Stephen Biddle, Foreign Affairs:
“Hitting Faraway Targets Will Not Tip the Balance of the War”

1/
The combination of technological/logistical incompetence, economic ignorance, and military-historical illiteracy as Stephen Biddle dropped in that article makes me despair about the competence of the US national security experts versus drone airpower.


2/
NASA FIRMS data shows anything up to 22,080 tons of Russian munitions were just lost to a cheap OWA-drone swarm that had 50(+) distinct desired mean points of impact (DMPI).
3/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 15
This is the visual representation of "Meaconing" style jamming. ⬇️

Per Wikipedia:

"Meaconing is the interception and rebroadcast of navigation signals. These signals are rebroadcast on the received frequency,

1/
...typically with power higher than the original signal, to confuse enemy navigation. Consequently, aircraft or ground stations are given inaccurate bearings."

A more technical explanation of Meaconing is at the link below⬇️

2/
wasyresearch.com/meaconing-the-…
The multichannel Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA) technology in most US GPS guided munitions were designed to render avionics systems immune to direct electronic attack from GPS jammers or other methods of interference.

3/

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Read 13 tweets
Sep 14
Russian military manpower stupidity like this⬇️

1/
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...and like this...⬇️



2/ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/390…
...makes Frederick W. Lanchester Smile.


3/3 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancheste…
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Read 4 tweets
Sep 14
The Biden-Sullivan Administration has nine Congressional work days left to process it's remaining billions of Presidential Drawdown Authority.

I expect it to fail to do anything because the DC "De-Escalation" crowd wants Ukraine to lose.

1/
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The DC escalation manager arse-wipes are happy to backstab their own party to self-promote.

If I weren't a 33 & 1/3 year DoD quality bureaucrat, it would boggle my mind.

But I've seen careerist stuff like this far too often⬇️

2/
This extreme careerist narcissism is what motivates DC elites.

@JakeSullivan46 and his NSC faction will be a dysfunctional leadership case study for future textbooks, like Robert Strange McNamara was for Vietnam, for the same reasons.


3/3 nytimes.com/2009/07/07/us/…
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Read 4 tweets

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