1-9
FT, based on 3 sources, says the U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries.
The reasons cited make very little sense 🧵
If the story is true, Allied experts and govts should urge the White House to come back to reason.
ft.com/content/98f15b…
2-9
The fears the FT reports:
- Global crude oil prices may rise because Russia may "retaliate" by destroying the CPC oil pipeline that takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea through Russia
- Global crude oil prices may rise no stated reason
This is silly.
3-9
The article asserts that crude oil prices could rise without any proper explanation, as if the authors and perhaps also their sources were genuinely confused and ignorant about the place of refineries in the oil and oil products supply chain.
4-9
Russia exports mostly crude, but also refined products. Attacks on Russia that would take large volumes off the global market -- which would drive up global prices significantly -- would need to be on major export infrastructure or on oil fields.
Not what Ukraine is doing.
5-9
Russia also exports refined products so that removing *some* of that volume from the global market will indirectly have a small effect on the global average oil price.
But the scale and danger of the war commands that Ukraine's partners suck it up.
6-9
Striking refineries is smart economic warfare:
- Russia has to continue to export as much crude and products it can to stay afloat economically
- Its armed forces have huge need of refined products
7-9
- Destroying a sizeable % of the refining capacity forces hard trade-offs on Russia internally without creating a major problem globally
8-9
That Russia may have threatened yet another act of economic warfare against the world - harming the CPC pipeline - should never be taken as a reason to reduce lawful attacks on Russia.
America should not bend the knee before terrorist entities such as Russia.
9-9
Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries are a great success and should continue.
America should focus on resuming the military assistance that it has promised would come "as long as it takes".
Addendum for clarity:
There is always a possible substitution for Russia between exporting refined products and exporting crude.
By striking only the refineries, Ukraine does not prevent Russia from exporting oil & oil products - it merely forces a substitution, in Russia's export structure, towards more crude and less refined products. But the total volume hitting the global market should not be expected to fall, except temporarily and by small amounts.
However, striking the refineries means that less actually usable fuels are available inside Russia for the armed forces and for civilian transport. That's why it's smart economic warfare -- it harms Russia's war effort, potentially also the Russian economy in how it functions internally, while minimising negative consequences for the global economy.
And that, in turn, is why it is infuriating to see this FT article that completely misses on the logic of what is going on and that appears to suggest that the Biden Administration doesn't understand or pretends not to understand -- and is ultimately panicking over likely minor global disruptions that can come with a major disruption to Russia's war effort.
Addendum 2 on political credibility:
The White House needs to understand it is losing credibility as it is failing to supply Ukraine and that its permanent broadcasting of fears and caveats and limits is not leadership.
Addendum 3: Ukrainian Minister says the strikes against Russian refineries are legitimate (they are), successful (they are), will continue (correct), and that some other Allies share Kyiv's view (true).
pravda.com.ua/news/2024/03/2…
Add 4: Now a senior official & adviser to the President of Ukraine says the FT story is not true at all.
Mykhailo Podolyak says: "This is fictitious information. No one will dictate the terms of this war to Ukraine after two years of full-scale war."
nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/po…
Add 5: Podolyak stating that it's a fictitious story poses serious questions regarding the credibility of the @FT and of the journalists involved:
Christopher Miller and Ben Hall in Kyiv;
Felicia Schwartz in Washington;
Myles McCormick in Houston.
What the hell happened?
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.