Raoul Pal Profile picture
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru. Get free RV access (click 🔗)

Mar 24, 2024, 10 tweets

What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/

And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...

And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall...

But Bitcoin LOVES macro summer and fall even more.
Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving...it's all the same Everything Code cycle...

Which happens to be the Election Year cycle too...

But Macro/crypto summer is really also Alts season...and the season they leg the Dogs out...

And liquidity should rise all the way into the end of 2025... I dont expect an exact match here (more subdued) but who knows...

Using many of our Everything Code inputs, we get a forecast of global liquidity that looks like this. Ive no idea whether its China, the EU, Japan or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell...

The work we have done on The Everything Code in Global Macro Investor (GMI) has been central to my investing strategy and got us max long tech and crypto in Dec 2022. We have forecasts out to end of 2025 for crypto and tech from this work, but obviously I won't publish them here.

But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone.

The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine.

Patience will be rewarded.

In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU

Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.

A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.

Keep scrolling