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Raoul Pal Profile picture
@RaoulGMI
Mar 24, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ Image
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis... Image
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall... Image
But Bitcoin LOVES macro summer and fall even more.
Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving...it's all the same Everything Code cycle... Image
Which happens to be the Election Year cycle too... Image
But Macro/crypto summer is really also Alts season...and the season they leg the Dogs out... Image
And liquidity should rise all the way into the end of 2025... I dont expect an exact match here (more subdued) but who knows... Image
Using many of our Everything Code inputs, we get a forecast of global liquidity that looks like this. Ive no idea whether its China, the EU, Japan or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell... Image
The work we have done on The Everything Code in Global Macro Investor (GMI) has been central to my investing strategy and got us max long tech and crypto in Dec 2022. We have forecasts out to end of 2025 for crypto and tech from this work, but obviously I won't publish them here.
But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone.

The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine.

Patience will be rewarded.

In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
Mar 10
This too shall pass...

Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/ Image
We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/ Image
Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the man (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops. Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 10, 2024
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Image
Here is $WIF about to break out... Image
And Smoking Chicken Fish will follow suit.. $SCF Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 5, 2024
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:

1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks. Image
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro. Image
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time. Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Oct 29, 2024
With $BTC well over $70k... Im looking for the final confirmations from some others. $SOL over $185... 1/ Image
$SUI is breaking its consolidation now and should be headed to new ATH's Image
And $DOGE is within sniffing distance... the dog can smell the ripening fruit. Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Sep 17, 2024
$SUI is actiing like it is going to be one of the key Chosen Ones of the major new chains, if not THE Chosen One...

The chart has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders, which is an important first step. 1/Image
But more importantly, it has broen the downtrend vs $SOL (and all the top 20 tokens). Its relative strength in a sideways market is worth paying attention to.Image
But SUI is still in its early innings and the proof will have to be in successful appplications that scale built on top of the tech stack.

TVL is a small part of this and the Circle announcement is another good step. Gaming is a potential big breakout but still too early...
Read 7 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 8, 2024
Sui $SUI is the groundbreaking ultra-fast L1, super efficient, full blockchain ecosystem that came out of Meta's Diem project.

The idea is that it is built for the scale of 4 billion people... i.e turning Web2 > Web3 1/
I have been looking for signs of the next big L1 mover by looking at the relative charts of many compared to each other and have mentioned this methodology on many podcasts....
$SUI is starting to look very interesting from a price perspective, although still early and unconfirmed, it is showing signs of breaking out against most tokens.

This is SUI/USD... Image
Read 11 tweets

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