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Raoul Pal Profile picture
@RaoulGMI
Mar 24, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ Image
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis... Image
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall... Image
But Bitcoin LOVES macro summer and fall even more.
Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving...it's all the same Everything Code cycle... Image
Which happens to be the Election Year cycle too... Image
But Macro/crypto summer is really also Alts season...and the season they leg the Dogs out... Image
And liquidity should rise all the way into the end of 2025... I dont expect an exact match here (more subdued) but who knows... Image
Using many of our Everything Code inputs, we get a forecast of global liquidity that looks like this. Ive no idea whether its China, the EU, Japan or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell... Image
The work we have done on The Everything Code in Global Macro Investor (GMI) has been central to my investing strategy and got us max long tech and crypto in Dec 2022. We have forecasts out to end of 2025 for crypto and tech from this work, but obviously I won't publish them here.
But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone.

The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine.

Patience will be rewarded.

In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
Oct 11
No, it's not a bubble in tech stocks. We are less than 1 standard deviation from the trend. You can see what a bubble looks like in the late 1990's when we exploded out of the decade long log regression channel to be multiple SD's from trend.

Nothing to see, move on... 1/ Image
Also, "But P/E ratio's are at bubble valuations!" narrative doesnt take into account the fact the during debasement the P rises (due to debasement) more than E (anchored by GDP growth in general). If debasement is 11% and GDP is 2% trend over same period then P/E rises by 9% p.a
This means that P/E ratio's double over 8 years or so. Its the denominator effect.

Also BTC is less than 1SD from trend. It usually hits 2 SD. Image
Read 18 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 31
Crypto is still being adopted at twice the speed on the internet from 5m IP addresses vs 5m wallets (very like for like). 1/ Image
And its on its way to 4 billion by 2030... Image
And that will take it from $4trn in market cap today to $100trn by 2032/2034 Image
Read 7 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 29
Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...)

Total3 - Ex- BTC and ETH...ready to launch from the waiting room. 1/ ... Image
OTHERS (Outside of Top 10... purest form of Alts season where all shit rises). Still in the waiting room but longer to launch... Image
ETH... Full Port. Image
Read 14 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Mar 10
This too shall pass...

Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/ Image
We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/ Image
Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the man (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops. Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 10, 2024
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Image
Here is $WIF about to break out... Image
And Smoking Chicken Fish will follow suit.. $SCF Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 5, 2024
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:

1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks. Image
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro. Image
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time. Image
Read 4 tweets

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