Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin.
That the war is unwinnable due to Russia’s dominance is a Kremlin information operation & a glimpse into Russia's real strategy & only hope of success.🧵
2/ The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate.
3/ The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself.
4/ The strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world.
5/ Those whose perspective aligns with the Kremlin’s are not ipso facto Russian dupes. The Kremlin links genuine sentiment and even some legitimate arguments to Russia’s interests in public debate.
6/ The Kremlin is also an equal opportunity manipulator. It targets the full spectrum of those making or informing decisions. It partially succeeds on every side of the political spectrum.
7/ Perception manipulation is one of the Kremlin’s core capabilities — now unleashed with full force onto the Western public as the Kremlin’s only strategy for winning in Ukraine. That is not a challenge most societies are equipped to contend with.
8/ The US has the power to deny Russia its only strategy for success, nevertheless. The US has allowed Russia to play an outsized role in shaping American decision-making, but the US has also made many sound choices regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
9/ The key successes achieved by Ukraine and its partners in this war have resulted from strategic clarity. Lost opportunities on the battlefield, on the other hand, have resulted from the West’s failure to connect ground truths to our interests quickly enough to act.
10/ Fortunately, the US faces an easier task in overcoming the Kremlin's manipulations than Russia does in closing the massive gap between Russia's war aims and its capabilities. The US must surge its support to Ukraine, and it must do so in time.
11/ Delays come at the cost of Ukrainian lives, increased risk of failure in Ukraine, & the erosion of the US advantage over Russia, granting the Kremlin time to rebuild & develop capabilities that it intends to use against the West - likely on a shorter timeline than the West assesses.
12/ The US must defeat Russia’s efforts to alter American will and decision-making for reasons that transcend Ukraine.
13/ For the US to deter, win, or help win any future war, US decisions must be timely, and connected to our interests, values, and ground truth, but above all – these decisions must be ours.
14/ Read "Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success," by @nataliabugayova and @FredWKagan with @KatStepanenko: isw.pub/DenyingRussia0…
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