Clément Molin Profile picture
19 ans, étudiant en Relations Internationales à Lyon 🇫🇷, cartes, analyses et suivi des conflits 🇸🇩🇨🇩🇦🇲🇲🇲🇺🇦🇸🇴🇸🇾 Co-directeur d'@atummundi

Apr 12, 2024, 17 tweets

Zaporizhia 🇺🇦, 40km from the front, 746 000 inhabitants, 6th city of Ukraine, targeted by Russian🇷🇺 glide bomb under the view of a drone.

Where is air-defense ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️

Sumy, 30km from the border, 270 000 inhabitants, 21st city of Ukraine under Russian aviation strikes.

Where is air-defense ?

Kharkiv, 35km from the border, 1.4 million inhabitants, 2th city of Ukraine, under Russian Iskander strikes, BM21 Uragan destroyed.

Where is air-defense ?

Okhtyrka, 40km from the border, 50 000 inhabitants, old artillery under Iskander strike.

Where is air-defense ?

South of Kharkiv, S300 destroyed by missile strike under drone eye. 55km from the border.

What is air-defense doing ? Why does this drone could enter 55km into Ukrainien territory ?

FAB 500 strikes on 93rd mecanized brigade training camp in Tchouhouiv (Kharkiv oblast), 50km from the border.

Where is air-defense ?

North of Zaporizhia city, NASAMS air-defense destroyed by Russian missile, 55km from the frontline.

What is air-defense doing ?

Odessa, 80km from the front, 1 million of inhabitants, 3rd city of Ukraine, S300 destroyed.

Where is air-defense ?

Power stations, radars, air defense, tanks, anmunition depos, power plants... Every military and critical civilian facility close to the front (~60km) can now be reached by Russian glide bombing.

Drones can freely fly over Ukrainian airspace...

This is not only a Ukrainien problem since Russia couldn't avoid Ukrainian drone stikes, however, Ukraine doesn't have thousands of missiles and guided FABs in reserve Russia has.

This is actually worrying for Ukrainin armed forces.

Indeed, as the battle for Tchasiv Yar is slowly beggining, FAB 500 are litteraly destroying the western edge of the city.

In the city, Russian armed forces have reached the last Ukrainian defenses before their main defensive line, the Bakhmout canal. On this canal, there are a few bridges which will be crucial to hold and destroy when they will retreat.

Every frontline village can now be striked by FABs 500/1500 which are destroying many positions and killing soldiers.

Example here, Rivnopil, a village liberated last summer by Ukraine.

The new strategy of Russia is simple :

1- FAB 500 strikes
2- Lancet strikes angainst Ukrainian mecanized reinforcement
3- Mecanized "meat assault" to take a position.

For Ukraine and its western partners, it will be crucial to find means to destroy Russian air assets, in particular Su-34, drones and missiles.

In the coming months, Russia will be able to destroy the city of Kherson if they want, since it is located on the front...

15/15

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