Clément Molin Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Zaporizhia 🇺🇦, 40km from the front, 746 000 inhabitants, 6th city of Ukraine, targeted by Russian🇷🇺 glide bomb under the view of a drone.

Where is air-defense ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️
Sumy, 30km from the border, 270 000 inhabitants, 21st city of Ukraine under Russian aviation strikes.

Where is air-defense ?
Kharkiv, 35km from the border, 1.4 million inhabitants, 2th city of Ukraine, under Russian Iskander strikes, BM21 Uragan destroyed.

Where is air-defense ?
Okhtyrka, 40km from the border, 50 000 inhabitants, old artillery under Iskander strike.

Where is air-defense ?
South of Kharkiv, S300 destroyed by missile strike under drone eye. 55km from the border.

What is air-defense doing ? Why does this drone could enter 55km into Ukrainien territory ?
FAB 500 strikes on 93rd mecanized brigade training camp in Tchouhouiv (Kharkiv oblast), 50km from the border.

Where is air-defense ?
North of Zaporizhia city, NASAMS air-defense destroyed by Russian missile, 55km from the frontline.

What is air-defense doing ?
Odessa, 80km from the front, 1 million of inhabitants, 3rd city of Ukraine, S300 destroyed.

Where is air-defense ?
Power stations, radars, air defense, tanks, anmunition depos, power plants... Every military and critical civilian facility close to the front (~60km) can now be reached by Russian glide bombing.

Drones can freely fly over Ukrainian airspace...
This is not only a Ukrainien problem since Russia couldn't avoid Ukrainian drone stikes, however, Ukraine doesn't have thousands of missiles and guided FABs in reserve Russia has.

This is actually worrying for Ukrainin armed forces.
Indeed, as the battle for Tchasiv Yar is slowly beggining, FAB 500 are litteraly destroying the western edge of the city.
In the city, Russian armed forces have reached the last Ukrainian defenses before their main defensive line, the Bakhmout canal. On this canal, there are a few bridges which will be crucial to hold and destroy when they will retreat. Image
Every frontline village can now be striked by FABs 500/1500 which are destroying many positions and killing soldiers.

Example here, Rivnopil, a village liberated last summer by Ukraine.
The new strategy of Russia is simple :

1- FAB 500 strikes
2- Lancet strikes angainst Ukrainian mecanized reinforcement
3- Mecanized "meat assault" to take a position.
For Ukraine and its western partners, it will be crucial to find means to destroy Russian air assets, in particular Su-34, drones and missiles.

In the coming months, Russia will be able to destroy the city of Kherson if they want, since it is located on the front...

15/15
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More from @clement_molin

Oct 10
A quoi ressemble la guerre en Ukraine en 2025, avec des photos et des vidéos ?

Sur cette vidéo, 4 drones russes 🇷🇺 frappent en 1 minute un blindé ukrainien 🇺🇦 abandonné, deux n'explosent pas.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️
J'ai compilé pour vous une vingtaine de vidéos et de photos, les moins sales (la plupart sont absolument horrible, avec des soldats qui agonisent) pour montrer une réalité de la guerre qu'on ne montre plus.

Ici, les drones russes qui attendent leur cible sur le côté de la route.
Un combat constant contre les drones kamikazes FPV.

Sur la vidéo, ce soldat ukrainien se bat contre plusieurs drones kamikazes russes, en détruisant plusieurs. La priorité désormais, regarder vers le ciel.
Read 23 tweets
Oct 8
L'Asie Centrale 🇰🇿🇺🇿🇹🇯🇹🇲🇰🇬 s'éloigne de Moscou 🇷🇺

Alors que se tient le 12ème sommet de l'organisation des Etats Turciques 🇹🇷 en Azerbaïdjan, les pays centrasiatiques prouvent une fois de plus leur éloignement avec la Russie.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
Depuis 2022, l’Asie centrale amorce un tournant géopolitique majeur.

Longtemps dans le giron russe, la région s’émancipe progressivement de Moscou. Cet éloignement n’est ni brutal ni uniforme, mais il est désormais irréversible. Image
La guerre en Ukraine a agi comme un catalyseur.

Pour les dirigeants centrasiatiques de l'ex URSS, la Russie n’est plus un garant de stabilité, mais un facteur d’incertitude.

Dès lors, la priorité devient l’autonomie stratégique et la diversification des partenariats. Image
Read 21 tweets
Oct 6
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.

In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.

*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.

There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.Image
Image
The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).

It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.
Read 25 tweets
Oct 5
Depuis le mois de mai 2025, la Russie 🇷🇺 a lâché 19 752 bombes guidées, dont 30% à Pokrovsk et 19% à Soumy.

Depuis le début de l'année, 35 148 bombes ont été lâchées ainsi que 1 488 990 frappes d'artilleries et 923 047 frappes de drones FPV.

Statistiques :

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Depuis que je cartographie les frappes aériennes russes, j'ai pu en localiser environ 65% (principalement à Pokrovsk, Soumy et Pokrovsk'e).

Le reste non cartographié est probablement à Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kramatorsk, Koupiansk ou Kharkiv. Image
Hier, j'ai publié cette carte des plus de 6 000 frappes aériennes russes entre Pokrovsk et Kostiantynivka sur les 5 derniers mois, avec différents codes couleurs. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 4
Will Russia 🇷🇺 break the frontline again ?

Since few weeks, russian forces started again to push for Drujkivka, while hundreds of russians are still isolated.

I mapped all airstrikes there and at the same time, Ukraine 🇺🇦 is preparing the 3rd Donbass line🧑‍🔧.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
Since two months, there have been a massive split between analysts. Pro-ukrainian or pro-russian sources are divided to understand how much km2 fell this month to Russia.

Many fail to understand the new logics of war. Image
Image
For example :

-Some will map an area as russian because a ukrainian drone striked russian soldiers there or a russian was seen with a flag.
-Some will map a large grey zone

I would myself map the grey zone for one main reason :
Read 25 tweets
Oct 3
En #Birmanie🇲🇲, la guerre dure depuis 4 ans et demi

Après le coup d'état des militaires de 2021, le pays a plongé dans la guerre civile.

Celle-ci oppose rébellions ethniques et pro-démocratie à la junte militaire soutenue par la Russie 🇷🇺 et la Chine 🇨🇳.

🧵THREAD🧵1/19 ⬇️Carte de @ThomasVLinge que j'ai modifié
Depuis plusieurs mois, la contre-offensive de la Tatmadaw -nom de l'armée birmane- dans l'Etat Shan progresse lentement.

Progressivement, la junte a renversé les gains de l'opération 1024 débuté en 2023 d'après @MyanmarWarMap

Image
D'un autre côté, @Nrg8000 a fait un bon travail avec la carte de Thomas Van Linge.

On voit en rouge les gains de la junte sur l'année passée et en bleu les gains de la coalition rebelle. Image
Read 19 tweets

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