Clément Molin Profile picture
Apr 12, 2024 17 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Zaporizhia 🇺🇦, 40km from the front, 746 000 inhabitants, 6th city of Ukraine, targeted by Russian🇷🇺 glide bomb under the view of a drone.

Where is air-defense ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️
Sumy, 30km from the border, 270 000 inhabitants, 21st city of Ukraine under Russian aviation strikes.

Where is air-defense ?
Kharkiv, 35km from the border, 1.4 million inhabitants, 2th city of Ukraine, under Russian Iskander strikes, BM21 Uragan destroyed.

Where is air-defense ?
Okhtyrka, 40km from the border, 50 000 inhabitants, old artillery under Iskander strike.

Where is air-defense ?
South of Kharkiv, S300 destroyed by missile strike under drone eye. 55km from the border.

What is air-defense doing ? Why does this drone could enter 55km into Ukrainien territory ?
FAB 500 strikes on 93rd mecanized brigade training camp in Tchouhouiv (Kharkiv oblast), 50km from the border.

Where is air-defense ?
North of Zaporizhia city, NASAMS air-defense destroyed by Russian missile, 55km from the frontline.

What is air-defense doing ?
Odessa, 80km from the front, 1 million of inhabitants, 3rd city of Ukraine, S300 destroyed.

Where is air-defense ?
Power stations, radars, air defense, tanks, anmunition depos, power plants... Every military and critical civilian facility close to the front (~60km) can now be reached by Russian glide bombing.

Drones can freely fly over Ukrainian airspace...
This is not only a Ukrainien problem since Russia couldn't avoid Ukrainian drone stikes, however, Ukraine doesn't have thousands of missiles and guided FABs in reserve Russia has.

This is actually worrying for Ukrainin armed forces.
Indeed, as the battle for Tchasiv Yar is slowly beggining, FAB 500 are litteraly destroying the western edge of the city.
In the city, Russian armed forces have reached the last Ukrainian defenses before their main defensive line, the Bakhmout canal. On this canal, there are a few bridges which will be crucial to hold and destroy when they will retreat. Image
Every frontline village can now be striked by FABs 500/1500 which are destroying many positions and killing soldiers.

Example here, Rivnopil, a village liberated last summer by Ukraine.
The new strategy of Russia is simple :

1- FAB 500 strikes
2- Lancet strikes angainst Ukrainian mecanized reinforcement
3- Mecanized "meat assault" to take a position.
For Ukraine and its western partners, it will be crucial to find means to destroy Russian air assets, in particular Su-34, drones and missiles.

In the coming months, Russia will be able to destroy the city of Kherson if they want, since it is located on the front...

15/15
N'oubliez pas de vous abonner à @atummundi

Don't forget to follow @atummundi

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Clément Molin

Clément Molin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @clement_molin

May 7
Penser la diplomatie 🇫🇷

La visite du président syrien Ahmed Al Charaa est instrumentalisée. L'on y dénonce, à des fins politiques, l'accueil d'un ancien djihadiste à l'Elysée.

Mais du point de vue diplomatique, qu'est-ce qui justifie cet accueil ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
C'est une constance, la France a rejeté depuis 2011, le régime sanguinaire de Bachar Al Assad, soutenant une société civile et une opposition en exil et refusant la compromission avec Al Assad.

Pour beaucoup, Assad fut le protecteur des minorités, ce qui en réalité est faux.
Des personnalités politiques françaises, qui n'ont pas sourcillées pendant les 14 ans d'envoi des jeunes alaouites, chrétiens, druzes et autres au front pour massacrer des sunnites (rebelles ou djihadistes) dans la guerre civile se réveillent finalement quand le régime tombe. Image
Read 20 tweets
May 5
Russian 🇷🇺 forces managed to breakthrough the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line and start fightings inside the trenches of the line.

For the first time, russian forces can hope reaching Kostiantynivka from the south after pushing back ukrainians 🇺🇦 from Toretsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
On this long video, a ukrainian VAB 🇫🇷🇺🇦 is targeted at the entrance of a large trench network with few dugouts.
Ukrainian soldiers jump in and start fighting against russian soldiers who took control of the fortified position, they also face constant drone attacks.
As I already said many times, those kinds of positions are not suitable for defense, in the open with not enough dugout positions, despite stong fondations (woods).
Russian observation drones can see everything and FPV drones can strike soldiers in the open. Image
Image
Read 17 tweets
May 4
Vers une victoire russe 🇷🇺 sur l'Oskil en 2025 ?

Dans l'est de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦, après 2 ans et demi de présence ukrainienne à l'est de l'Oskil, l'armée russe tente d'isoler le dispositif ukrainien.

Analyse d'un objectif stratégique pour Moscou.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️Image
Sur le front de Dvorichna, l'armée russe est parvenue à traverser l'Oskil en plusieurs points et tente d'agrandir la tête de pont (infanterie uniquement) vers l'ouest et le nord, pour la connecter à la frontière russe.

Une zone qui présente un danger de plus en plus important. Image
Au sud, la capture de Dvorichna permettra un point de franchissement sur l'Oskil.

De manière générale, l'armée russe pousse vers le sud est, avec comme objectif final l'encerclement de Koupiansk, point clé de la région libéré en septembre 2022. Image
Image
Image
Read 17 tweets
May 2
The war 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 of 2025 has nothing to do anymore with the war of 2022.

The tactics used in 2022 and 2023 are now completely obsolete on the Ukrainian front and new lessons have been learnt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
2022 have been the year of large mechanized assaults on big cities, on roads or in the countryside.

After that, the strategy changed to large infantry or mechanized assaults on big trench networks, especially in 2023. Image
But today, this entire strategy is obsolete. Major defensive systems are being abandoned one after the other.
The immense trench networks have become untenable if they are not properly equipped with covered trenches and dugouts. Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 25
L'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 a débuté depuis 1 mois un impressionnant renforcement de ses défenses sur le front de Kharkiv, au nord de la ville, mais aussi en direction du front actif sur l'Oskil.

C'est une réponse directe à la progression russe 🇷🇺 sur ce front.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12⬇️ Image
Alors que la traversée russe de l'Oskil se poursuit au nord de Koupiansk (ce qui débouchera à terme sur une manœuvre d'encerclement de la ville), celle-ci s'élargit jusqu'à la frontière, sans ne poser pour le moment de menace importante, compte tenu de l'absence de franchissement Image
L'armée ukrainienne renforce logiquement la direction ouest avec de nombreuses nouvelles tranchées autour de Koupiansk. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 24
Dans l'est de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦, des centaines de kilomètres de fortifications sont érigées pour empêcher/ralentir/détourner la progression russe 🇷🇺.

Analyse des nouvelles tranchées de ces dernières semaines et des stratégies de défense côté ukrainien.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25⬇️ Image
Aujourd'hui, nous allons couvrir principalement 3 directions, chacune disposant d'une couleur, entre Pokrovsk au sud de l'oblast de Donetsk et Sloviansk, au nord de celui-ci.

Le bleu pour l'ouest (Dnipro), le rouge pour le nord (Pokrovsk), le vert pour l'est de Kramatorsk. Image
Autour de Pokrovsk, nous avons assisté ces dernières semaines à une construction massive de nouvelles positions, plus petites et plus nombreuses, mieux coordonnées et appuyées que les fortifications précédentes.

En rouge, ce sont les tranchées et fossés érigés en 2025. Image
Read 26 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(