Thread by @TrentTelenko

Yes, I've been looking for Russian train derailments that could be attributed to lack of foreign roller bearing for a while.

Now there may be one where I expected they would show up first.
1/

Something I've been expecting to see since September 2022 in fact.

See that post below:

2/

Is there reason to think about roller bearing failures now?

Yes there is.

Look at the map below.

3/

There are literally no roads where that arctic railway track is laid.

There is a built up railway track on top of arctic permafrost that turns to muck in June, July and August.

4/

What I see as evidence for the railway roller bearing hypothesis is the derailment happened at the 6th car behind the diesel locomotives and not _AT_ the locomotives.

5/

If it was a flooded track issue the locomotive, as the heaviest piece of the train would have derailed first.

Yet the _Sixth_ rail car was the one that derailed.

6/

The areas with least maintained railway tracks will put the most wear and tear on roller bearings.

It is also where the Russian railcar & locomotive fleets have been the most neglected.

So you all need to be watching for more of this in the Russian Arctic & Far East, as I have.

(H/T @HenryJFoy)
7/

The Russian pattern of the most neglected track meeting the most neglected engines & rolling stock will cause more & more derailments starting in the arctic, then the Far East.

Then derailments in the Caucuses, moving towards Moscow/St Petersburg.

Finally derailments of the repair trains.
8/

The movement of DPRK artillery shells, weapons and now troops through overused and ill maintained Trans-Siberian rail stock & tracks in the arctic summer will show how non-existent Russian preventive maintenance has been since the April of 2021.😈


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