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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jun 27, 2024 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Yes, I've been looking for Russian train derailments that could be attributed to lack of foreign roller bearing for a while.

Now there may be one where I expected they would show up first.
1/
Something I've been expecting to see since September 2022 in fact.

See that post below:

2/
Is there reason to think about roller bearing failures now?

Yes there is.

Look at the map below.

3/
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There are literally no roads where that arctic railway track is laid.

There is a built up railway track on top of arctic permafrost that turns to muck in June, July and August.

4/
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What I see as evidence for the railway roller bearing hypothesis is the derailment happened at the 6th car behind the diesel locomotives and not _AT_ the locomotives.

5/
If it was a flooded track issue the locomotive, as the heaviest piece of the train would have derailed first.

Yet the _Sixth_ rail car was the one that derailed.

6/
The areas with least maintained railway tracks will put the most wear and tear on roller bearings.

It is also where the Russian railcar & locomotive fleets have been the most neglected.

So you all need to be watching for more of this in the Russian Arctic & Far East, as I have.

(H/T @HenryJFoy)
7/Image
The Russian pattern of the most neglected track meeting the most neglected engines & rolling stock will cause more & more derailments starting in the arctic, then the Far East.

Then derailments in the Caucuses, moving towards Moscow/St Petersburg.

Finally derailments of the repair trains.
8/Image
The movement of DPRK artillery shells, weapons and now troops through overused and ill maintained Trans-Siberian rail stock & tracks in the arctic summer will show how non-existent Russian preventive maintenance has been since the April of 2021.😈


9/9 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 17
The fire and forget millimeter wave (MMW) radar guidance AGM-114L "Hellfire Longbow" being referred in the War Zone post as "a new anti-drone armament" for the LCS actually ceased production in 2005 and reaches end of life in 2025.

1/
One of the reasons the AGM-114L was dropped from the US Army M-Shorad is the US Army didn't want to pay money to recertify the AGM-114L inventory...

2/
...with the AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM) equipped with dual-mode Semi-Active Laser (SAL) and millimeter wave (MMW) radar seeker just entering production.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 16
It is a bad week to be Russia.

Qatar, one of the biggest LNG exporter, just announced it's new six MTPA (million tonnes per annum) nitrogen fertilizer plant.

The chemical process involved is natural gas->ammonia -> urea for a
1/
 dohanews.co/qatar-set-to-b…
...vertically integrated facility.

This new Qatar facility means Middle Eastern fertilizer industrial plants have now displaced Russia on the world fertilizer market.

2/
This makes Russia falling out of the world Ag-sector fertilizer supply chain a non-event going forward.

The Qatari sheiks made a good move here to capture value up the supply chain from energy.

Plus, Urea and Ammonia store far better than liquified natural gas.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 15
I disagree with the thoughts in this post for multiple reasons.⬇️

1st, Ukraine made a systematic effort in Oct 2024 to take out multiple Russian alcohol distilleries.

So distilleries are on the AFU strategic bombing list.

1/
2nd, there are a lot of things that alcohol is a chemical feedstock for that Russia desperately needs to make.

I've talked about synthetic rubber for tires in another thread.


2/
A short list of Russian industrial alcohol uses include:

o It's used as an industrial solvent.
o It's used as a precursor for numerous plastics.
o It's used as a precursor for some explosives.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 15
Ukraine struck another Russian alcohol plant?

I'm beginning to think the Russians have been using alcohol to make butadiene based synthetic rubber.

My WW2 US mobilization resources say grain produced alcohol was the primary chemical feedstock for the synthetic rubber

1/
...in US tires until August 1944.

The process was invented by a Russian, Via wikipedia:

"The Russian chemist Sergei Vasilyevich Lebedev was the first to polymerize butadiene in 1910....

2/
...In 1926 he invented a process for manufacturing butadiene from ethanol, and in 1928, developed a method for producing polybutadiene using sodium as a catalyst.

The government of the Soviet Union strove to use polybutadiene as an alternative to natural rubber ...

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 13
If you are going to talk about the US Army's WW2 "Revolution in logistical affairs."

You start at TM 55-310, Stevedoring⬇️

It lead to another Civil Rights revolution 25 years later.

Stevedoring & Civil Rights🧵🧵
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That War Department technical manual codified how the US Army would apply mechanized logistics - pallets, forklifts and warehousing using same - world wide.

2/
Searching on TM 55-310, Stevedoring leads history manuscript of how the US Army moved cargo in WW2.

The implementation of TM 55-310, Stevedoring lead to the hesitant 1st steps to racial integration...

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 11
Russian Shaheds have been using early 1990's style digital scene mapping and correlation (DSMAC) guidance.

Depending on how much memory is on the Shahed, it could be avoiding the use of GNSS (Think GPS) radio navigation entirely.

1/ Image
But as the figure I used above noted, Ukraine is mostly flat and that is bad for DSMAC accuracy.

An analysis of the data bases of downed Shaheds will yield the landmarks these drones are using.

That data, plus an AI analysis of past Shahed trajectories in GNSS jammed...

2/ Image
...areas, plus maps of Ukrainian cell phone tower networks that Shahed SIM cards access, should allow operational analysis predictions of future Shahed landmark checkpoints to set up quick reaction Ukrainian TDF mobile AA gun "flak traps."

3/3 End Image
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Read 4 tweets

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