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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jun 27, 2024 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Yes, I've been looking for Russian train derailments that could be attributed to lack of foreign roller bearing for a while.

Now there may be one where I expected they would show up first.
1/
Something I've been expecting to see since September 2022 in fact.

See that post below:

2/
Is there reason to think about roller bearing failures now?

Yes there is.

Look at the map below.

3/
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There are literally no roads where that arctic railway track is laid.

There is a built up railway track on top of arctic permafrost that turns to muck in June, July and August.

4/
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What I see as evidence for the railway roller bearing hypothesis is the derailment happened at the 6th car behind the diesel locomotives and not _AT_ the locomotives.

5/
If it was a flooded track issue the locomotive, as the heaviest piece of the train would have derailed first.

Yet the _Sixth_ rail car was the one that derailed.

6/
The areas with least maintained railway tracks will put the most wear and tear on roller bearings.

It is also where the Russian railcar & locomotive fleets have been the most neglected.

So you all need to be watching for more of this in the Russian Arctic & Far East, as I have.

(H/T @HenryJFoy)
7/Image
The Russian pattern of the most neglected track meeting the most neglected engines & rolling stock will cause more & more derailments starting in the arctic, then the Far East.

Then derailments in the Caucuses, moving towards Moscow/St Petersburg.

Finally derailments of the repair trains.
8/Image
The movement of DPRK artillery shells, weapons and now troops through overused and ill maintained Trans-Siberian rail stock & tracks in the arctic summer will show how non-existent Russian preventive maintenance has been since the April of 2021.😈


9/9 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 3
I've made a point about the Russian killed to wounded ratios a lot.

This is off scale:

"The AFU 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of Ukraine's Air Assault Forces published some stats. In August, Russia suffered 928 KIA and 528 WIA, i.e. 1.76:1,

1/3
and in September, 1,202 KIA and 649 WIA, i.e. 1.85:1.

These numbers strongly exceed any previous campaigns dating back to the Crimean War, and do not include non-combat deaths due to disease or exposure."

2/3
Late 20th Century combat saw one dead for every four wounded.

Russia is suffering between one and 3/4 to one to something like one and 4/5ths to one killed to wounded at Povrovsk.

This is without historical precedence.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 2
Gosh, remember all those 2023 US Navalist accounts that denied - DENIED, I tell you - that drones from containerships would ever, ever, be a threat and that I personally was delusional for saying so publicly.

Who looks delusional now 😱⬇️

1/
One in every five US Naval vessels are defenseless to Chinese drones, surprise launched from Chinese merchant & fishing vessels, because the
every CNO since 1989 didn't want USN logistical officers to get a captaincy and compete for flag ranks.

2/
Instead of dealing with reality, the USN flags send out minions on X to say "de-lu-lu" things like this⬇️

Because the USN Flags from the Aviation, Surface and Sub communities don't want to have logistical officers get flag ranks and spotlight their professional delusions🤮🤮
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 1
Phalanx was replaced by the SeaRAM, AKA RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile, on almost all new US combatants for the last ~15 years.

The SeaRAM Wiki states:

"The U.S. Navy plans to purchase a total of about 1,600 RAMs and 115 launchers to equip 74 ships.

1/3
The missile is currently active aboard Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers, Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, Wasp-class amphibious assault ships, America-class amphibious assault ships, San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ships,
2/3
Whidbey Island-class dock landing ships, Harpers Ferry-class dock landing ships, and littoral combat ships (LCS).[6]"

This was a US Navy procurement disaster in the age of drones.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 1
There are good reasons Russia is now looking to purchase gasoline from abroad to replace what they can no longer produce and deliver internally.

Russia is in the middle of a refinery damage & overuse failure cascade🧵

1/
Let us start with basics.

This was the pre-Russo-Ukrainian War Russian pipeline infrastructure Russian refineries were attached too.

2/
This is another view of the same infrastructure courtesy of the @AndreasSteno account.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 1
"Western Experts" on X who claim drones are a "Ukraine War unique fad" are complete fools⬇️

"Among the sensitive targets of September 2025:
• 1,895 ‼️ enemy wings of the Orlan, Zala, SuperCam, Lancet types, Molniya kamikaze wing, Shahed, Gerbera.

1/3
• 455 enemy pilot launch points and 738 crew antenna units.
• 150 mobile EW systems and 9 self-propelled EW systems.
• 2,124 self-propelled vehicles (armor, logistics, rocket artillery, auto-moto vehicles, MLRS).

2/3
• 394 cannons and howitzers.
• and much more weaponry, assets, depots, shelters, etc."

The #1 counter-battery weapon on the 2025 battlefield isn't ballistic or rocket artillery.

It is the drone.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 28
The Russian Legioner armored vehicle is an interesting reinvention of the 1940's Red Army BTR-152 or US M3 Scout car.

It says a great deal about the defense industrial infrastructure limitations of the Russian Federation.

1/ Image
The three 6x6 BTR-152 photos and drawings and one 4x4 M3 scout car photo will give you an idea of what is available to the 2025 Russian defense industrial base.

2/2 Image
Image
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H/T to Dylan Malyasov of Defense Blog.

defence-blog.com/russia-develop…
Read 4 tweets

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