Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Expert in weighing medical evidence, cancer, COVID forecasting & mitigation, health disparities, financial analytics. 120 publications. PhD program director.

Jun 28, 2024, 6 tweets

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, June 28, 2024 (U.S.)

You've got about 1 good month left for higher risk medical and dental visits.

Expect 500,000 to 600,000 infections/day the next month -- in a summer "lull."

1/

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, June 28, 2024 (U.S.)

1.1% of the U.S. is actively infectious (1 in 90). We're looking at 3.7 million infections/week and 187,000+ resulting Long COVID cases/week.

That's 129 million infections in 2024 so far.

2/

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, June 28, 2024 (U.S.)

How does transmission compare to late June in past years?

2023: 1.9x higher today
2022: 2.3x higher in 2022 (BA.2 surge) than today
2021: 5.6x higher today
2020: 2.8x higher today

We're in a hot "lull" with #backtoschool soon.

3/

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, June 28, 2024 (U.S.)

With the UK surveillance study tabled, our best international comparison is Canada.

Note that independent estimates there from Dr. @MoriartyLab's team are eerily similar to our own US-based estimates. Data you can trust.

4/

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, June 28, 2024 (U.S.)

If you interact with 20 people this week, there's about a 1 in 5 chance someone was actively infectious with Covid. Interact with 100 people? 2 in 3 chance someone has Covid.

#MaskUp
5/

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, June 28, 2024 (U.S.)

You can catch the entire dashboard online. Please share across other platforms. Thanks!

6/

pmc19.com/data/

Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.

A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.

Keep scrolling