EUROVISION 2020 "WHAT IF?" SIMULATION RESULTS - A Thread 🧵📊🎶
The results of my "What If?" 2020 prediction survey are here. After receiving eurofans assessments of all 2020 entries' jury and televote potentials, these results were fed to a model simulating the contest 100000 times. These are the average results of the simulations
While this methodology sounds simple, it managed to produce more accurate results than the odds for the 2024 contest. Thus I feel like these results serve as an accurate representation of our "collective wisdom" on the 2020 contest
SEMI 1:
Of the two semis, semi 1 by far has the safest set of 10 qualifiers, with a major gap between 10th and 11th. While Australia is a top 10 jury song in the average results, it is not enough to consistently qualify. Thus the 10 most likely Q's are:
🇱🇹🇷🇺🇲🇹🇳🇴🇺🇦🇸🇪🇧🇪🇦🇿🇷🇴🇮🇱
SEMI 2:
Beyond a very safe top 3, this semi is much more open, with a very small gap between 10th and 11th. While 🇵🇹 and 🇱🇻 don't qualify in the average results, they still manage to reach top 10 for jury and tele respectively. The 10 most likely Q's are:
🇮🇸🇨🇭🇧🇬🇩🇰🇦🇲🇬🇷🇵🇱🇷🇸🇫🇮🇦🇱
FINAL:
Taking the 10 most likely qualifiers from each semi, this is what the average final looks like. It is important to remember that these are averages, and individual simulations see countries having bigger highs and lows. Something like the quadruple 0 is not impossible here
Looking at overall winning chances, 2020 seems to have been a race between the two frontrunners of Iceland and Italy, with Switzerland close behind and a handful of others as dark horses. Let's now look into each of the 41 entries' chances, and how you rated them in the survey
Before we get into each country, I would like to plug my 2025 signup survey. I plan on doing similar survey/simulation experiments throughout the 2025 NF/ESC season. By signing up here, you will get the surveys send directly, as well as the sim results
forms.gle/u9GN5vow985iq3…
Iceland:
Daði og Gagnamagnið - Think About Things
Tele-power: 91.3
Jury-power: 81.1
Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 99.9%
Top 5: 91.7%
Top 3: 73%
Winner: 31.2%
Italy:
Diodato - Fai rumore
Tele-power: 80.4
Jury-power: 90.2
Top 10: 99.8%
Top 5: 90.1%
Top 3: 70.9%
Winner: 28.7%
Switzerland:
Gjon's Tears - Répondez-moi
Tele-power: 73.2
Jury-power: 91.7
Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 98.8%
Top 5: 78.6%
Top 3: 52.8%
Winner: 17%
Bulgaria:
Victoria - Tears Getting Sober
Tele-power: 66.7
Jury-power: 87
Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 93.8%
Top 5: 54%
Top 3: 28.7%
Winner: 7.7%
Lithuania:
The Roop - On Fire
Tele-power: 85.4
Jury-power: 67.4
Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 94%
Top 5: 45.7%
Top 3: 20.5%
Winner: 4.3%
Russia:
Little Big - Uno
Tele-power: 91.8
Jury-power: 48.4
Qualification: 99.9%
Top 10: 96.5%
Top 5: 37.3%
Top 3: 13%
Winner: 2.8%
Malta:
Destiny - All of My Love
Tele-power: 59.3
Jury-power: 83.6
Qualification: 99.9%
Top 10: 82.1%
Top 5: 31.9%
Top 3: 13.6%
Winner: 2.7%
Sweden:
The Mamas - Move
Tele-power: 55.8
Jury-power: 78.1
Qualification: 90.7%
Top 10: 61.8%
Top 5: 20.6%
Top 3: 9%
Winner: 2%
Norway:
Ulrikke - Attention
Tele-power: 60.1
Jury-power: 76.8
Qualification: 99.5%
Top 10: 67.1%
Top 5: 20.2%
Top 3: 8%
Winner: 1.5%
Germany:
Ben Dolic - Violent Thing
Tele-power: 52.9
Jury-power: 52.3
Top 10: 26.2%
Top 5: 8%
Top 3: 3.9%
Winner: 1.1%
Denmark:
Ben and Tan - Yes
Tele-power: 57.4
Jury-power: 58.4
Qualification: 94.5%
Top 10: 28.2%
Top 5: 5.4%
Top 3: 2%
Winner: 0.4%
Ukraine:
Go_A - Solovey
Tele-power: 70.9
Jury-power: 47.6
Qualification: 98.6%
Top 10: 37.2%
Top 5: 3.7%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%
Romania:
Roxen - Alcohol You
Tele-power: 48.6
Jury-power: 55.8
Qualification: 80.9%
Top 10: 18.7%
Top 5: 2.8%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%
Poland:
Alicja - Empires
Tele-power: 42.6
Jury-power: 53.8
Qualification: 72.5%
Top 10: 13.9%
Top 5: 2.5%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%
Netherlands:
Jeangu Macrooy - Grow
Tele-power: 28.5
Jury-power: 53.8
Top 10: 11.7%
Top 5: 2.2%
Top 3: 0.8%
Winner: 0.1%
Australia:
Montaigne - Don't Break Me
Tele-power: 30.6
Jury-power: 51
Qualification: 37%
Top 10: 7.9%
Top 5: 1.3%
Top 3: 0.4%
Winner: 0.1%
Israel:
Eden Alene - Feker Libi
Tele-power: 51.2
Jury-power: 51.1
Qualification: 79.3%
Top 10: 10.9%
Top 5: 1.1%
Top 3: 0.3%
Winner: 0%
Belgium:
Hooverphonic - Release Me
Tele-power: 26.8
Jury-power: 64
Qualification: 88.2%
Top 10: 9.4%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
Greece:
Stefania - Supergirl
Tele-power: 51.2
Jury-power: 44.4
Qualification: 73.9%
Top 10: 8.8%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
Finland:
Aksel - Looking Back
Tele-power: 28
Jury-power: 52.5
Qualification: 70.5%
Top 10: 6%
Top 5: 0.6%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
Armenia:
Athena Manoukian - Chains on You
Tele-power: 46.2
Jury-power: 30.2
Qualification: 74.5%
Top 10: 5.8%
Top 5: 0.4%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
Serbia:
Hurricane - Hasta la vista
Tele-power: 57.6
Jury-power: 29.4
Qualification: 71.9%
Top 10: 5.6%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Albania:
Arilena Ara - Fall From the Sky
Tele-power: 32.1
Jury-power: 48.2
Qualification: 58.9%
Top 10: 5.4%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
Azerbaijan:
Efendi - Cleopatra
Tele-power: 59.1
Jury-power: 42.2
Qualification: 85.8%
Top 10: 5.2%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Portugal:
Elisa - Medo de sentir
Tele-power: 21.1
Jury-power: 43.7
Qualification: 55.6%
Top 10: 1.9%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Croatia:
Damir Kedžo - Divlji vjetre
Tele-power: 25
Jury-power: 40.5
Qualification: 24%
Top 10: 0.9%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Latvia:
Samanta Tīna - Still Breathing
Tele-power: 31.4
Jury-power: 22.1
Qualification: 45.6%
Top 10: 0.8%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Austria:
Vincent Bueno - Alive
Tele-power: 23.7
Jury-power: 38.7
Qualification: 19.5%
Top 10: 0.7%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Cyprus:
Sandro - Running
Tele-power: 28.4
Jury-power: 31.6
Qualification: 6.8%
Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Georgia:
Tornike Kipiani - Take Me as I Am
Tele-power: 24.9
Jury-power: 18.9
Qualification: 22.1%
Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
United Kingdom:
James Newman - My Last Breath
Tele-power: 18
Jury-power: 29.3
Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Ireland:
Lesley Roy - Story of My Life
Tele-power: 25.6
Jury-power: 28.7
Qualification: 5.6%
Top 10: 0.1%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Spain:
Blas Cantó - Universo
Tele-power: 15.6
Jury-power: 26.4
Top 10: 0.1%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Belarus:
VAL - Da vidna
Tele-power: 20.3
Jury-power: 22.2
Qualification: 1.1%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Czechia:
Benny Cristo - Kemama
Tele-power: 22.1
Jury-power: 20
Qualification: 22.7%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Estonia:
Uku Suviste - What Love Is
Tele-power: 18.7
Jury-power: 26.5
Qualification: 4.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
France:
Tom Leeb - Mon alliée (The Best in Me)
Tele-power: 18.5
Jury-power: 25.4
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Moldova:
Natalia Gordienko - Prison
Tele-power: 25.3
Jury-power: 26.1
Qualification: 9.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
North Macedonia:
Vasil - You
Tele-power: 16.3
Jury-power: 20.5
Qualification: 0.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
San Marino:
Senhit - Freaky
Tele-power: 20.7
Jury-power: 17
Qualification: 4.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Slovenia:
Ana Soklič - Voda
Tele-power: 12.5
Jury-power: 30.7
Qualification: 2.6%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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