Thread by @dolphin_dane

EUROVISION 2020 "WHAT IF?" SIMULATION RESULTS - A Thread 🧵📊🎶

https://twitter.com/dolphin_dane/status/1808080047783215333

The results of my "What If?" 2020 prediction survey are here. After receiving eurofans assessments of all 2020 entries' jury and televote potentials, these results were fed to a model simulating the contest 100000 times. These are the average results of the simulations

While this methodology sounds simple, it managed to produce more accurate results than the odds for the 2024 contest. Thus I feel like these results serve as an accurate representation of our "collective wisdom" on the 2020 contest

https://twitter.com/dolphin_dane/status/1789458600206750027

SEMI 1:
Of the two semis, semi 1 by far has the safest set of 10 qualifiers, with a major gap between 10th and 11th. While Australia is a top 10 jury song in the average results, it is not enough to consistently qualify. Thus the 10 most likely Q's are:
🇱🇹🇷🇺🇲🇹🇳🇴🇺🇦🇸🇪🇧🇪🇦🇿🇷🇴🇮🇱

SEMI 2:
Beyond a very safe top 3, this semi is much more open, with a very small gap between 10th and 11th. While 🇵🇹 and 🇱🇻 don't qualify in the average results, they still manage to reach top 10 for jury and tele respectively. The 10 most likely Q's are:
🇮🇸🇨🇭🇧🇬🇩🇰🇦🇲🇬🇷🇵🇱🇷🇸🇫🇮🇦🇱

FINAL:
Taking the 10 most likely qualifiers from each semi, this is what the average final looks like. It is important to remember that these are averages, and individual simulations see countries having bigger highs and lows. Something like the quadruple 0 is not impossible here

Looking at overall winning chances, 2020 seems to have been a race between the two frontrunners of Iceland and Italy, with Switzerland close behind and a handful of others as dark horses. Let's now look into each of the 41 entries' chances, and how you rated them in the survey

Before we get into each country, I would like to plug my 2025 signup survey. I plan on doing similar survey/simulation experiments throughout the 2025 NF/ESC season. By signing up here, you will get the surveys send directly, as well as the sim results
forms.gle/u9GN5vow985iq3…

Iceland:
Daði og Gagnamagnið - Think About Things

Tele-power: 91.3
Jury-power: 81.1

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 99.9%
Top 5: 91.7%
Top 3: 73%
Winner: 31.2%

Italy:
Diodato - Fai rumore

Tele-power: 80.4
Jury-power: 90.2

Top 10: 99.8%
Top 5: 90.1%
Top 3: 70.9%
Winner: 28.7%

Switzerland:
Gjon's Tears - Répondez-moi

Tele-power: 73.2
Jury-power: 91.7

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 98.8%
Top 5: 78.6%
Top 3: 52.8%
Winner: 17%

Bulgaria:
Victoria - Tears Getting Sober

Tele-power: 66.7
Jury-power: 87

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 93.8%
Top 5: 54%
Top 3: 28.7%
Winner: 7.7%

Lithuania:
The Roop - On Fire

Tele-power: 85.4
Jury-power: 67.4

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 94%
Top 5: 45.7%
Top 3: 20.5%
Winner: 4.3%

Russia:
Little Big - Uno

Tele-power: 91.8
Jury-power: 48.4

Qualification: 99.9%
Top 10: 96.5%
Top 5: 37.3%
Top 3: 13%
Winner: 2.8%

Malta:
Destiny - All of My Love

Tele-power: 59.3
Jury-power: 83.6

Qualification: 99.9%
Top 10: 82.1%
Top 5: 31.9%
Top 3: 13.6%
Winner: 2.7%

Sweden:
The Mamas - Move

Tele-power: 55.8
Jury-power: 78.1

Qualification: 90.7%
Top 10: 61.8%
Top 5: 20.6%
Top 3: 9%
Winner: 2%

Norway:
Ulrikke - Attention

Tele-power: 60.1
Jury-power: 76.8

Qualification: 99.5%
Top 10: 67.1%
Top 5: 20.2%
Top 3: 8%
Winner: 1.5%

Germany:
Ben Dolic - Violent Thing

Tele-power: 52.9
Jury-power: 52.3

Top 10: 26.2%
Top 5: 8%
Top 3: 3.9%
Winner: 1.1%

Denmark:
Ben and Tan - Yes

Tele-power: 57.4
Jury-power: 58.4

Qualification: 94.5%
Top 10: 28.2%
Top 5: 5.4%
Top 3: 2%
Winner: 0.4%

Ukraine:
Go_A - Solovey

Tele-power: 70.9
Jury-power: 47.6

Qualification: 98.6%
Top 10: 37.2%
Top 5: 3.7%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%

Romania:
Roxen - Alcohol You

Tele-power: 48.6
Jury-power: 55.8

Qualification: 80.9%
Top 10: 18.7%
Top 5: 2.8%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%

Poland:
Alicja - Empires

Tele-power: 42.6
Jury-power: 53.8

Qualification: 72.5%
Top 10: 13.9%
Top 5: 2.5%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%

Netherlands:
Jeangu Macrooy - Grow

Tele-power: 28.5
Jury-power: 53.8

Top 10: 11.7%
Top 5: 2.2%
Top 3: 0.8%
Winner: 0.1%

Australia:
Montaigne - Don't Break Me

Tele-power: 30.6
Jury-power: 51

Qualification: 37%
Top 10: 7.9%
Top 5: 1.3%
Top 3: 0.4%
Winner: 0.1%

Israel:
Eden Alene - Feker Libi

Tele-power: 51.2
Jury-power: 51.1

Qualification: 79.3%
Top 10: 10.9%
Top 5: 1.1%
Top 3: 0.3%
Winner: 0%

Belgium:
Hooverphonic - Release Me

Tele-power: 26.8
Jury-power: 64

Qualification: 88.2%
Top 10: 9.4%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%

Greece:
Stefania - Supergirl

Tele-power: 51.2
Jury-power: 44.4

Qualification: 73.9%
Top 10: 8.8%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%

Finland:
Aksel - Looking Back

Tele-power: 28
Jury-power: 52.5

Qualification: 70.5%
Top 10: 6%
Top 5: 0.6%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%

Armenia:
Athena Manoukian - Chains on You

Tele-power: 46.2
Jury-power: 30.2

Qualification: 74.5%
Top 10: 5.8%
Top 5: 0.4%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%

Serbia:
Hurricane - Hasta la vista

Tele-power: 57.6
Jury-power: 29.4

Qualification: 71.9%
Top 10: 5.6%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Albania:
Arilena Ara - Fall From the Sky

Tele-power: 32.1
Jury-power: 48.2

Qualification: 58.9%
Top 10: 5.4%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%

Azerbaijan:
Efendi - Cleopatra

Tele-power: 59.1
Jury-power: 42.2

Qualification: 85.8%
Top 10: 5.2%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Portugal:
Elisa - Medo de sentir

Tele-power: 21.1
Jury-power: 43.7

Qualification: 55.6%
Top 10: 1.9%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Croatia:
Damir Kedžo - Divlji vjetre

Tele-power: 25
Jury-power: 40.5

Qualification: 24%
Top 10: 0.9%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Latvia:
Samanta Tīna - Still Breathing

Tele-power: 31.4
Jury-power: 22.1

Qualification: 45.6%
Top 10: 0.8%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Austria:
Vincent Bueno - Alive

Tele-power: 23.7
Jury-power: 38.7

Qualification: 19.5%
Top 10: 0.7%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Cyprus:
Sandro - Running

Tele-power: 28.4
Jury-power: 31.6

Qualification: 6.8%
Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Georgia:
Tornike Kipiani - Take Me as I Am

Tele-power: 24.9
Jury-power: 18.9

Qualification: 22.1%
Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

United Kingdom:
James Newman - My Last Breath

Tele-power: 18
Jury-power: 29.3

Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Ireland:
Lesley Roy - Story of My Life

Tele-power: 25.6
Jury-power: 28.7

Qualification: 5.6%
Top 10: 0.1%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Spain:
Blas Cantó - Universo

Tele-power: 15.6
Jury-power: 26.4

Top 10: 0.1%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Belarus:
VAL - Da vidna

Tele-power: 20.3
Jury-power: 22.2

Qualification: 1.1%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Czechia:
Benny Cristo - Kemama

Tele-power: 22.1
Jury-power: 20

Qualification: 22.7%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Estonia:
Uku Suviste - What Love Is

Tele-power: 18.7
Jury-power: 26.5

Qualification: 4.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

France:
Tom Leeb - Mon alliée (The Best in Me)

Tele-power: 18.5
Jury-power: 25.4

Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Moldova:
Natalia Gordienko - Prison

Tele-power: 25.3
Jury-power: 26.1

Qualification: 9.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

North Macedonia:
Vasil - You

Tele-power: 16.3
Jury-power: 20.5

Qualification: 0.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

San Marino:
Senhit - Freaky

Tele-power: 20.7
Jury-power: 17

Qualification: 4.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

Slovenia:
Ana Soklič - Voda

Tele-power: 12.5
Jury-power: 30.7

Qualification: 2.6%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%

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