JWeiland Profile picture
Scientist. Infectious disease modeler. Tweets and spelling mistakes are my own Models and analysis seen on @Newsweek @Fortunemagazine @FaceTheNation @TIME

Aug 9, 2024, 5 tweets

August 9th update:

Estimated daily infections reach 1 million. Remarkable infection rates for a summer surge. Only BA.2->BA.5 was higher in the 2022 summer.

🔸1,000,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 33 people currently infected
🔸74% higher than 12 month avg.

Prevalence by region:

Every region increasing in wastewater levels. Both the South and West are at roughly 12 month highs.

Midwest: 1 in 42 ⬆️
South: 1 in 25 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 58 ⬆️
West: 1 in 22 ⬆️

Make no mistake- though waning is a very important driver of waves, variant evolution plays a large role in the differences between years.

Last summer was "just" F456L mutation on XBBs.

This year we had FLiRT->KP.3->KP.3.1.1 back to back, each quickly overtaking the last.

This was part of the concern with the Pirola variant tree: a huge evolutionary jump on the spike may allow for a lot more optimization in the months after arrival. We saw the same thing with Omicron: many meaningful mutations in the first 9 months after it arrived.

@cml199002 Also note: this data is for the US, not Alberta. I don't know what the current stats are for Alberta.

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