#Hybrid: Durov’s arrest in France is suspicious: 1) he knew he was wanted for the quality of content moderation on Telegram platform, used by Russia for spreading disinformation; 2) Durov appears to have deliberately chosen to fly to Paris, even though he was avoiding Western ⤵️
jurisdiction so far; 3) The French arrest warrant was valid only for French territory, which may explain why Durov chose to fly to France and not another European country, where he was immediately arrested; 4) As a French citizen, he will not be extradited, although Russia ⤵️
would like to have him back; 5) One working theory may be that Durov chose to collaborate with the French police, without being clear in return for what, to show that he is not working with Russian states to destabilize France/the West;⤵️
6) This event will likely have an impact on Telegram content (1 billion users worldwide); 7) It is a signal to @elonmusk and others that they are not immune from punishment for contributing to disinformation, with destabilizing effects on Western states.
Russia is disoriented and doesn’t know how to intervene in Durov's case. Moscow plans to speak to the French opposition about it. Russian Duma Committee on International Relations Chairman Slutzky announced he will hold talks on Durov's arrest with @MLP_officiel.
@MLP_officiel The ‘power’ and ‘fear’ of setting a precedent, applied to those who do not comply despite their wealth and connections.
@MLP_officiel Tomorrow the French prosecutor's office will make a statement. Durov risks 20 years in prison on all the charges taken together. The biggest mystery is why Durov decided to travel to France. I suggested the theory that he did it deliberately.⤵️
@MLP_officiel Should the theory that Durov deliberately headed to Paris prove wrong, Moscow could try to broker a swap deal. Russia has already launched an info campaign in support of Durov, calling him a “political prisoner.” This is another Assange-style narrative for Moscow’s propaganda.
@MLP_officiel Experts explained that Telegram has an emergency plan in case of Durov's arrest. The access key to the Telegram operating system will be changed immediately. To gain access to the necessary docs to build a solid case against Durov, a diplomatic cooperation with UAE is required.
@MLP_officiel Ukrainian sources claim that Telegram is being used by Russian military and intelligence services abroad. If access to it is lost, military and hybrid operations (and the people behind them) could be unveiled and compromised.
@MLP_officiel Meanwhile, Russian-linked cyber groups have carried out massive DDoS attacks against several French public services websites (health, etc.). This is a response by non-state actors, something Russia has neither denied nor self-attributed.
@MLP_officiel The case is highly political (cross-border) in nature. @EmmanuelMacron did not hold back without commenting: 1) Durov's arrest is not "political" (as Russia claims); 2) this case was opened because of France's rule of law, not an attempt to use censorship (as @elonmusk claims).
@MLP_officiel @EmmanuelMacron @elonmusk The EU says this issue is beyod its competence. However, Brussels is one of the strongest actors in countering Russian hybrid interference in the media sphere. If Telegram is regulated as a result of Durov's deals with Paris, it will help the EU fight Russian disinfo & more. 👇
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