A short🧵1/9 on the Israeli air raids into Iran yesterday. This was more than a precision strike, it was a clear demonstration of capability, intent and will. [This replaces a previous thread that mistakenly reposted a misleading video - thank you to all who rightly corrected me]
2/ The raid demonstrates a level of co-ordination and execution that is way more precise, sophisticated and devastating than the salvo firing of some less-than-successful drones or missiles - which is Iran’s only viable conventional means to strike Israel.
3/ We haven’t seen all the results yet but a select number of key targets linked to Iran’s missile and drone capability appear to be the main target - a restrained but potentially debilitating tit-for-tat response that doesn’t appear to have targeted nuclear or oil facilities.
4/ Some of the more sophisticated air defence sites were “suppressed” along the way, and with no reports of any Israeli losses a combination of this, stealth and standoff weapons has proven highly effective against Iranian air defences.
5/ Iran won’t say it, but it will come as a huge shock to them that they can be targeted with such relative ease. The precision of intelligence and attacks, and ease with which it was conducted, despite plenty of notice, means Iran knows Israel can do this whenever it wants to.
6/ it will have shaken any confidence that Iran had in their so called impenetrable Russian-supplied air defence systems. And in a country the size of Iran you can’t defend everywhere- it now appears they can’t defend anywhere.
7/ So, the strikes may have drawn a line in the conventional “war” between the two, and we are yet to see the impact on Iranian production, although we may see clues in Ukraine first if export supplies are impacted.
8/ But the real damage is the signal Israel has sent of what it is capable of doing, even when Iran is at a state of heightened alert. It also has wider implications, as the results will not have been lost on Russia who knows that their equipment is fallible and vulnerable.
9/ And there is an even wider lesson for those who see a new paradigm in deep strike. Drones and missiles may be a tempting solution for many, but it would appear that “the bomber still can always get through”. Now imagine what Ukraine could do given similar means…..ENDS
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