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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ / Middle East: Visual investigations, Geolocations, Obituary Analysis; Volunteer @geoconfirmed

Oct 31, 2024, 20 tweets

๐€ ๐˜๐ž๐š๐ซ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ˆ๐ƒ๐… ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐Œ๐š๐ง๐ž๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐‹๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ (๐†๐š๐ณ๐š ๐’๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ฉ)
The below analysis focuses on IDF losses during the ground operation, which began on Oct 27, 2023, and covers the first year of the war, documenting 355 announced losses up to Oct 27, 2024 >

ยฒ ๐‘บ๐’๐’–๐’“๐’„๐’†๐’” are primarily based on publications by the IDF spokesman and an official page with basic details about the fallen soldier. Additionally, I supplemented information from newspaper articles, channels of military reporters, podcasts, and family members.

ยณ Disclaimer:
The analysis is statistical and should be interpreted carefully (e.g., itโ€™s not normalized by population or unit duration in Gaza).
As an OSINT project, errors may exist due to sources' nature.
A file with full data and source links will be provided at the end.

โด ๐‘ช๐’Š๐’•๐’Š๐’†๐’” ๐’๐’‡ ๐‘น๐’†๐’”๐’Š๐’…๐’†๐’๐’„๐’†
The following maps illustrate the distribution of hometowns of the KIA IDF soldiers.
The cities shown in the Top 10 graph sum up to 56% (200) of all the KIA.
Notably, there is an unproportionally high number of casualties from Jerusalem.

โต KIA come from all Israeli ๐’…๐’Š๐’”๐’•๐’“๐’Š๐’„๐’•๐’”.
Numbers from Judea and Samaria (West Bank) are high for their low population size, but without recruitment data, it's best not to draw quick conclusions.
Note: Central District (25%) stats exclude separate Tel Aviv District

โถ ๐‘ป๐’Š๐’Ž๐’†๐’๐’Š๐’๐’†
IDF losses align with key stages and events in the ground maneuver.
On average, one soldier was killed per day during this year.
The longest non-death and death periods are both - 18 days.
All losses occurred over 134d of the calendar year (36.5% of the year)

โท ๐‘จ๐’“๐’†๐’‚
Most soldiers were killed in the northern Gaza Strip, aligning with the duration and scale of forces operating there.
The area info comes from IDF.
In some cases, I corrected wrong categorization: e.g. Zaytoun neighbourhood in Gaza was labeled by IDF as Central area

โธ Beyond IDF information, I gathered details on the city or exact event location from social media and news articles.
I managed to locate 77% of the data. Most gaps are from the first two months of fighting, with very limited public information.
See red note in Gaza City plot.

โน
The KIA average ๐‘จ๐’ˆ๐’† is 25.4.
For officers and reservists, the average is higher, as shown in the graph.
The oldest fallen soldier was a 51-year-old reservist.

ยนโฐ
18 (5%) of the fatalities succumbed to their ๐‘พ๐’๐’–๐’๐’…๐’” more than a day after being injured.
This is a very low figure compared to the large number of severely wounded reported by the army

ยนยน Most of the KIA are from active personnel, with 'Staff Sergeant' as the most common ๐‘น๐’‚๐’๐’Œ.
Among officers, 'Captain' is most frequent.
Two highest-ranking fallen were 'Colonels'.
Most ranks were raised by IDF after death, according to procedure.
See next post.

ยนยฒ
The IDF has an established protocol for rank adjustments, including posthumous promotions. Commander opinion and circumstances also impact decisions.
Promotions are more common at lower ranks.
186 (52%) out of 355 soldiers were raised in their rank after their death.

ยนยณ
Addressing a claim about missing Privates and Corporals among the fallen: IDF ranks are time-based, and combat training is very long. The youngest soldier that will finish a combat training will be at Corporal Rank.
All fallen corporals were promoted to sergeants, eventually.

ยนโด The highest-ranking officer was the commander of Brigade 401. Additionally, 3 battalion commanders, 3 deputy commanders, 16 company commanders, and 11 deputy company commanders were KIA.
Overall, 63 soldiers (17%) with command roles, from junior to senior positions, were KIA.

ยนโต
In terms of high-level type of unit classification, most of the KIA were from the Infantry Corps.
Classification was done by official definition of every battalion or specific definition found in public sources.

ยนโถ Division 162, Givati Brigade 84 and Sayeret Givati battalion had the highest amount of losses among its category.
Battalion or brigade parent unit affiliation was determined according to the official designation and not temporary assignment.

ยนโท
Determining causes of death was the most challenging part.
I identified causes for 93% (333) of cases, with RPG and IEDs being most common.
Unidentified cases may be accident-related, as I have a gap of 20 cases (36 vs 56) compared to public IDF records.

ยนโธ Accidents and friendly fire are most discrete causes, which are usually not shared.
Friendly Fire was the most common accident reason.
Overall, this category is 10-15% out of all KIA.
As stated earlier, the discrepancy in numbers is from the first two months of the maneuver.

ยนโน
Lastly, hereโ€™s the breakdown of causes by unit type:

For armoured and engineering units, RPG was the main cause.
For infantry forces, IEDs were the deadliest.
Naturally, the category of accidents is the second common reason for engineering forces.

ยฒโฐ
The collected data is available on my github:

I would appreciate any corrections or additional information if you have any.
A special thanks to @yuvharpaz for the assistance and information he has been collecting since the beginning of the war.github.com/middle-east-buโ€ฆ

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