Tara Moriarty Profile picture
🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦Assoc Prof @UofT. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. @COVID_19_Canada. Defend journalism. Opinions mine. @MoriartyLab@bsky.social

Nov 11, 16 tweets

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher

Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 7,200-15,800

About 1 in every 48 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~14X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 2,200-4,800

About 1 in every 52 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~20X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 17,700-38,600

About 1 in every 39 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~21X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~26X higher
-Deaths ~30X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 12,000-26,000

About 1 in every 45 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~22X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~33X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

QUÉBEC

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 187,300-409,300

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~24X higher
-Hospitalizations ~31X higher
-Deaths ~30X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

ONTARIO

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 358,800-784,300

About 1 in every 28 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~22X higher
-Long COVID ~26X higher
-Hospitalizations ~23X higher
-Deaths ~15X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

MANITOBA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 53,800-117,600

About 1 in every 18 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~33X higher
-Long COVID ~33X higher
-Hospitalizations ~33X higher
-Deaths ~33X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

SASKATCHEWAN

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 25,300-55,300

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~24X higher
-Hospitalizations ~31X higher
-Deaths ~33X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

ALBERTA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 72,800-159,100

About 1 in every 42 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~19X higher
-Long COVID ~17X higher
-Hospitalizations ~24X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 97,300-212,800

About 1 in every 37 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 3,000-6,600

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~26X higher
-Deaths ~26X higher

The national overview for the Canadian COVID forecast can be found here:

For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here:

Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.

The next forecast will be November 23rd, 2024.

Thanks to @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @truthseeker_dl @Allene__Scott for data input, graphics, and translation.

Thanks to the whole @covid_19_canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan

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