Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
CANADA
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000
About 1 in every 31 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
VERY HIGH (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 7,200-15,800
About 1 in every 48 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~14X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 2,200-4,800
About 1 in every 52 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~20X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 17,700-38,600
About 1 in every 39 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~21X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~26X higher
-Deaths ~30X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 12,000-26,000
About 1 in every 45 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~22X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~33X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
QUÉBEC
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 187,300-409,300
About 1 in every 31 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~24X higher
-Hospitalizations ~31X higher
-Deaths ~30X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
ONTARIO
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 358,800-784,300
About 1 in every 28 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~22X higher
-Long COVID ~26X higher
-Hospitalizations ~23X higher
-Deaths ~15X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
MANITOBA
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 53,800-117,600
About 1 in every 18 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~33X higher
-Long COVID ~33X higher
-Hospitalizations ~33X higher
-Deaths ~33X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
SASKATCHEWAN
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 25,300-55,300
About 1 in every 31 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~24X higher
-Hospitalizations ~31X higher
-Deaths ~33X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
ALBERTA
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 72,800-159,100
About 1 in every 42 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~19X higher
-Long COVID ~17X higher
-Hospitalizations ~24X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 97,300-212,800
About 1 in every 37 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 3,000-6,600
About 1 in every 31 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~26X higher
-Deaths ~26X higher
The national overview for the Canadian COVID forecast can be found here:
For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here:
Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.
The next forecast will be November 23rd, 2024.
Thanks to @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @truthseeker_dl @Allene__Scott for data input, graphics, and translation.
Thanks to the whole @covid_19_canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan
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