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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Nov 11 • 16 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~23X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 24.1 About 1 of every 31 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 22.8X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 23.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 26.8X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-t...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 7,200-15,800

About 1 in every 48 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~14X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 13.3 About 1 of every 48 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 7,200 - 15,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 12.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 15.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH; 13.5X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 2,200-4,800

About 1 in every 52 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~20X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Prince Edward Island's COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 16.4 About 1 of every 52 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 2,200 - 4,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 13.3X higher Long COVID estimate: VERY HIGH 14,7X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.0X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 20.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 mo...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 17,700-38,600

About 1 in every 39 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~21X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~26X higher
-Deaths ~30X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 25.6 About 1 of every 26 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 17,700-38,600 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 20.8X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 26.2X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 30.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 12,000-26,000

About 1 in every 45 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~22X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~33X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. New Brunswick’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.1 About 1 of every 45 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 12,000-26,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 21.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 16.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 27.2X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 32.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N9...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

QUÉBEC

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 187,300-409,300

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~24X higher
-Hospitalizations ~31X higher
-Deaths ~30X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 29.3 About 1 of every 31 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 187,300-409,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.4X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 23.7X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 31.1X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 29.7X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-typ...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

ONTARIO

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 358,800-784,300

About 1 in every 28 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~22X higher
-Long COVID ~26X higher
-Hospitalizations ~23X higher
-Deaths ~15X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 19.9 About 1 of every 28 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 358,800-784,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 21.8X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 25.8X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 22.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 15.3X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-ty...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

MANITOBA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 53,800-117,600

About 1 in every 18 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~33X higher
-Long COVID ~33X higher
-Hospitalizations ~33X higher
-Deaths ~33X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Manitoba’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 33.1 About 1 of every 18 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 53,800-117,600 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 33.3X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 33.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 33.3X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 33.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-ty...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

SASKATCHEWAN

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 25,300-55,300

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~24X higher
-Hospitalizations ~31X higher
-Deaths ~33X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Saskatchewan’s COVID Forecast outlook is Saskatchewan’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 29.9 About 1 of every 31 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 25,300-55,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 26.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 23.8X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 30.7X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 32.5X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

ALBERTA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 72,800-159,100

About 1 in every 42 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~19X higher
-Long COVID ~17X higher
-Hospitalizations ~24X higher
-Deaths ~25X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Alberta’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE; (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.3 About 1 of every 42 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 72,800-159,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 18.7X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 17.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 23.5X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 24.7X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-ty...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 97,300-212,800

About 1 in every 37 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~23X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. British Columbia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 20.3 About 1 in every 37 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 97,300-212,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.7X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.7X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 20.0X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.3X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 3,000-6,600

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~26X higher
-Deaths ~26X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nunavut, NWT, & Yukon’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 24.9 About 1 of every 31 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,000-6,600 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 22.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 22.7X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 26.3X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 26.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months W...
The national overview for the Canadian COVID forecast can be found here:

For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here:

Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.

The next forecast will be November 23rd, 2024.

Thanks to @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @truthseeker_dl @Allene__Scott for data input, graphics, and translation.

Thanks to the whole @covid_19_canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 6
The Data Card, “Family Holiday Dinner - Before”, shows how wise it is for everyone to mask while visiting inside.

We looked at a group of 10 people, you’re one of them, gathering for a 3 hour visit. People are chatting, but it’s mostly a quiet group enjoying each other’s company.

The scenario uses an average size dining room, 16 x 32. The airflow is well mixed among this and the other rooms and the outside doors are closed.

What can you do?We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
What can you do? Open the windows.

What can you do?

You can make your event even more safe by providing rapid tests beforehand and N95 masks as people arrive. This lets everyone know that you care about their health.

What else can you do?

Set up an Outside Food Zone. ™

If the weather is, ahem, wintery, and you have the resources, get a fire pit going.

Explore other ways to warm the space, maybe candles, those amazing patio heaters, or a tether ball to kick to warm everyone up. Don’t forget to provide gloves and blankets too.

Create an inviting space for people to bring their food out, unmask, safely eat at a distance from the crowd. When they’re ready they can join the folks inside again knowing that they are helping to keep everyone safe.

The “Family Holiday Dinner - Before” Card shows the maximum risk people that take on. We’re using the safest estimate for one-off events that often have visitors from away, may include a super spreader, and carry higher potential risks.
Your most vulnerable people will want to use these estimates since, for us, it’s best to assess risk by assuming the worst. We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
Read 8 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~28X higher
-Hospitalizations ~29X higher
-Deaths ~26X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (increasing)

Estimated infections this week: 10,600-11,300

About 1 in every 64 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~17X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~15X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 17.5 About 1 of every 64 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 10,600 - 11,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 20.4X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines e...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

CANADA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 1 190 200-1 266 300

Environ 1 personne sur 43 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X 🔺
-COVID longue ~28X 🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X 🔺
-Décès ~26X 🔺This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
The english version of our regional forecast can be found here:

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

GRAVE (en hausse)

Infections pendant cette période : 10 600-11 300

Environ 1 personne sur 64 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~17X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~15X🔺Image
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 27.3 - SEVERE Alberta: 30.0 - SEVERE British Columbia: 16.1- SEVERE Manitoba: 30.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 28.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 17.5 -SEVERE North: 25.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 30.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 27.4 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 26.2 - SEVERE Quebec: 27.9 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 30.0 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) F...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is increasing 2%/week (-5% to +8%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 43 people are currently infected (~175,000 infections/day).

A new surge/wave has started, later than usual for this time of year in many provinces. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 14 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
Read 13 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 17
Parking lot Visits in Your Cars
-FYI- This thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading. Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…

One of our volunteers wanted to know the risks of meeting their friends in a parking lot, with their cars side by side. How much risk happens in the air transfer between cars? What a great question!

The answer is – not much!

This scenario used the Average Canadian High Risk family this time, since they are more inclined to need and want to take extra precautions while still socializing.A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Parking lot Visit in Your Cars Text in light blue coloured box, subtitle: Is it safe to visit between cars? Yes! Text: Rendezvous together to visit with friends, chat in your cars. Image: 2 cars next to Parking sign, red car facing right, blue car facing left. Speech bubbles float above cars. Image credit: created by vectorportal.com Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Text in light blue coloured box: Activity Risks Two people in each car, windows down, heat on in cars if i...
The answer is – not much!

This scenario used the Average Canadian High Risk family this time, since they are more inclined to need and want to take extra precautions while still socializing.

OK, what’s a “car visit”?
Imagine two parked cars:
* Facing opposite directions
* Cars about 1.5 to 2 metres apart
* Driver windows opposite each other
* It it’s cold, heater may be on
We roll down the drivers’ windows and visit!

This is quite safe, as shown in the data cards.
Enjoy a very low risk way to share each other’s company.A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Parking lot Visit in Your Cars Text in light blue coloured box, subtitle: Is it safe to visit between cars? Yes! Text: Rendezvous together to visit with friends, chat in your cars. Image: two cars next to Parking sign, red car facing right, blue car facing left. Speech bubbles float above cars. Image credit: created by vectorportal.com Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Text in light blue coloured box: Activity Risks Two people in each car, windows down, heat on in cars if ...
We don’t have alt text for our tables yet but we’re working on it.
For curiosity and data diving, by comparison, what if all 4 people were in one car?

That’s the second data card. Lots of red and big numbers of risk.

The Good air numbers are with windows open and those numbers are scary high for all but those wearing the best mask. Poor air estimates are with the windows closed.

Because the car is not moving, even with all the windows open there is very little air exchange.

Sitting in a parked car with several other people for any real length of time is Not a good idea!We don’t have alt text for our tables yet but we’re working on it.
Read 5 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 11
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 9-22, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: NL
HIGH: none
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 31 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 9-22, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 24.1 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 20.3- SEVERE Manitoba: 33.1 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 27.1 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 13.3 - VERY HIGH North: 24.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 25.6 - SEVERE Ontario: 19.9 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 16.4 - SEVERE Quebec: 29.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 29.9 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) F...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is increasing 1%/week (-3% to +5%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 31 people are currently infected (~190,516 infections/day).

The confidence interval for infection estimates is wide this week (-/+ 37%), due to considerable fluctuation in waste water.

Model infection estimates usually increase before waste water signal and we may be at starting a new surge.Graph showing estimated new daily infections for Canada, the provinces, and territories (5 week rolling averages) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 14 (Infections)
Read 10 tweets

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