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Structured noodling over U.S.-China economic, technological, & ideological competition. Analysis @datenna, formerly research @CNASdc. 博观而约取,厚积而薄发。

Feb 17, 16 tweets

Xi's meeting with private tech titans goes beyond an alignment b/w the state & the private sector. It's part of a detailed tech security strategy by China's Central National Security Commission in "The Total National Security Paradigm (2022)," translated here for the first time:

For a project with @CSTranslate, I translated the chapter "Safeguard Technological Security" from "The Total National Security Paradigm: A Study Outline 《总体国家安全观学习纲要》" (April 2022), authored by the CCP's Office of the Central National Security Commission (中央国家安全委员会办公室). This office plays a crucial role in coordinating national security matters across the Chinese party and state apparatus. This chapter offers essential insights into how the Chinese Party-state plans to enhance its national security through technological means.

Chinese policymakers treat this technology security strategy with the gravity of a military doctrine, viewing innovation as a critical response to national security challenges.

Here are some interesting quotes and reflections:

1) The text reads more like a military directive than a typical policy document, with frequent use of terms like 'battlefield' and 'domains' to emphasize the strategic importance of techno-scientific innovation. This linguistic choice underlines the CCP's view of technology as a crucial front in its rejuvenation project:

"Techno-scientific innovation has become the main battlefield on the chessboard of global strategy, and the importance of science and technology has increased in all domains. Whoever seizes the 'tiller' of technological innovation and takes the first step in technological innovation will be able to take the lead and gain advantages.

科技创新成为国际战略博弈的主要战场,科学技术的重要性全面上升。谁牵住了科技创新这个“牛鼻子“,谁走好了科技创新这步先手棋,谁就能占领先机、赢得优势。谁牵住了科技创新这个“牛鼻子“,谁走好了科技创新这步先手棋,谁就能占领先机、赢得优势。"

2) Chinese policymakers have openly acknowledged existing limitations in China’s innovation capacities. This candid appraisal highlights the challenges China faces in advancing its technological development. This self-awareness has already translated into many policies in recent years:

"At the same time, it must be recognized that our innovation capabilities began at a very weak starting point, the overall efficiency of our innovation system is low, the integration of scientific and technological innovation resources is insufficient and the deployment of scientific and technological innovation forces needs to be optimized.

同时,也要看到,我国原始创新能力还不强,创新体系整体效能还不高,科技创新资源整合还不够,科技创新力量布局有待优化。"

3) Related to the previous note that China currently is lacking in broad innovative capacity, the text stresses the importance of *autonomous* innovation, calling it "original innovation capabilities (原始创新能力)":

"We are a great power. In terms of technological innovation we must make our own unique contributions. If we always follow and imitate others, there will be no way forward. Not only will the technological gap widen, but we will also be permanently locked into the lower end of the industrial value chain. We must strengthen our confidence in innovation, seize the opportunities for innovation, uphold the core position of innovation in the overall modernization drive of our nation, put the improvement of original innovation capabilities in a more prominent position, enhance independent innovation capabilities across the board, and seize the strategic initiative in a new round of global science and technology competition.

我们是一个大国,在科技创新上要有自己的东西。如果总是跟踪模仿,是没有出路的,不仅差距会越拉越大,还将被长期锁定在产业分工格局的低端。要坚定创新自信,紧抓创新机遇,坚待创新在我国现代化建设全局中的核心地位,把原始创新能力提升摆在更加突出的位置,全面增强自主创新能力,掌握新一轮全球科技竞争的战略主动。"

4) The text discusses how China should strategically integrate into the global innovation systems to leverage international resources and expertise. This approach is designed to further empower Chinese entities to develop their own innovations so they become self-sustaining players:

“Independent innovation should be conducted in an open environment, and must not be carried out behind closed doors. The greater the blockades and suppression we face the less we can afford to close ourselves off. We must more proactively integrate into the global innovation network and improve our own scientific and technological innovation capabilities through open cooperation.

自主创新是开放环境下的创新,绝不能关起门来搞。越是面临封锁打压,越不能搞自我封闭、自我隔绝。要更加主动地融入全球创新网络,在开放合作中提升自身科技创新能力。"

5) The text advocates for a concerted effort to break through geographical, organizational, and technological boundaries, framing scientific and technological advancement as a collective competitive advantage rather than isolated achievements. This systemic approach aligns national scientific and technological endeavors with broader strategic objectives:

"The competition between the world’s techno-scientific powers is about national strategic scientific and technological strengths. It is necessary to promptly deploy national laboratories, reorganize the national key laboratory system, unleash the universities’ role in scientific research, encourage the active participation of various scientific research institutes, and form strategic forces.

世界科技强国竞争,比拼的是国家战略科技力量。要抓紧布局国家实验室,重组国家重点实验室体系,发挥高校在科研中的重要作用,调动各类科研院所的积极性,形成战略力量。科技创新活动不断突破地域、组织、技术的界限,演化为创新体系的竞争。"

6) The text also calls for addressing redundancy and fragmentation in China's science and tech infrastructure so it can better support innovation. An example policy effort is the establishment of the Central Science and Technology Commission (CSTC, 中央科技委员会) under the party in 2023 to better coordinate China's science and technology policies:

"It is necessary to deepen the reform of the science and technology system, improve the science and technology innovation ecosystem, strengthen system construction and capacity building, perfect our national innovation system, address prominent issues—such as redundant resource allocation, scattered research capacities, and the indecisive positioning of main innovative functions—and enhance the overall effectiveness of the innovation system.

要深化科技体制改革,改善科技创新生态,加强体系建设和能力建设,完善国家创新体系,解决资源配置重复、科研力量分散、创新主体功能定位不清晰等突出问题,提高创新体系整体效能。"

7) It’s not an official CCP text on technology policy without mentions of “core technologies”:

"Only by holding core technologies in our own hands can we truly take the initiative in competition and development and fundamentally guarantee the economic security of the state, the national defense, and security in other areas.

只有把核心技术掌握在自己手中,才能真正掌握竞争和发展的主动权,才能从根本上保障国家经济安全、国防安全和其他安全。"

8) Chinese policymakers believe its system’s capability to mobilize resources to accomplish things is a “crucial magic weapon” for success. The emphasis on fostering a synergistic relationship between an effective market and a proactive government highlights the dual approach of the Chinese Party-state:

"Our socialist system’s ability to concentrate resources to accomplish great things is a crucial magic weapon for achieving success. Many major scientific and technological achievements in our country have been achieved by relying on this magic weapon. It is necessary to promote a better integration of an effective market and proactive government, fully leverage the role of the state as the organizer of major scientific and technological innovations, fully unleash the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and “twist” the government, market, society and other forces into one thread, forming a powerful synergy to promote technological innovation.

我国社会主义制度能够集中力量办大事是我们成就事业的重要法宝。我国很多重大科技成果都是依靠这个法宝搞出来的。要推动有效市场和有为政府更好结合,充分发挥国家作为重大科技创新组织者的作用,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,把政府、市场、社会等各方面力量拧成一股绳,形成推进科技创新的强大合力。"

9) The text has an interesting list of choke point technologies:

"Scientific and technological research must adhere to a problem-oriented approach, targeting the most urgent and pressing issues. Efforts should be concentrated on key core technologies in areas of urgent national need and long-term demand, such as oil and gas, basic raw materials, high-end chips, industrial software, crop seeds, scientific experimental instruments and equipment, and chemical preparations. The goal is to achieve autonomy in and control of key core technologies, firmly holding the initiative in innovation and development in our own hands.

科技攻关要坚持问题导向,奔着最紧急、最紧迫的问题去。要从国家急迫需要和长远需求出发,在石油天然气、基础原材料、高端芯片、工业软件、农作物种子、科学试验用仪器设备、化学制剂等方面关键核心技术上全力攻坚,努力实现关键核心技术自主可控,把创新主动权、发展主动权牢牢掌握在自己手中。"

10) The text notes that the dominance of Western countries was largely derived from their command of high-end technology:

"One important reason Western countries have been able to dominate the world since the dawn of the modern era is their mastery of high-end technology. It is necessary to firmly grasp the general direction of technological progress, strengthen our strategic orientation and guiding goals, accelerate the construction of a leading edge in high-end technologies, become a pace-setter in important technological fields, and become a pioneer in emerging frontier and interdisciplinary fields, so as to build a strong country in science and technology, product quality, aerospace, network, transportation, digitalization, and a “smart” society.

近代以来,西方国家之所以能称雄世界,一个重要原因就是掌握了高端科技。要牢牢把握科技进步大方向,强化战略导向和目标引导,加快构筑支撑高端引领的先发优势,在重要科技领域成为领跑者,在新兴前沿交叉领域成为开拓者,为建设科技强国、质量强国、航天强国、网络强国、交通强国、数字中国、智慧社会提供有力支撑。"

11) In emerging tech areas like AI and quantum technologies, Chinese policymakers want China's innovative forces to secure the "commanding heights" of global science and technology:

"Target frontiers like artificial intelligence, quantum information, integrated circuits, advanced manufacturing, health sciences, neuroscience, breeding new cultivars, aerospace technology, and deep earth and deep sea exploration. Proactively deploy a batch of strategic and reserve technology R&D projects, implement major national science plans and engineering projects, and accelerate the occupation of the commanding heights of the international scientific frontier.

瞄准人工智能、量子信息、集成电路、先进制造、生命健康、脑科学、生物育种、空天科技、深地深海等前沿领域,前瞻部署一批战略性、储备性技术研发项目,实施好国家重大科学计划和科学工程,加快在国际科学前沿领域抢占制高点。"

12) The text advocates for strategic independence and resilience in critical technological domains, stressing that China should develop 'assassin's maces'--key technologies that provide a buffer against unforeseen technological attacks by adversaries. This is another way of phrasing the necessity for indigenous innovation inside China:

"Develop unique "assassin’s maces" to ensure protection against technological surprise attacks by enemies. If we do not have a few tricks up our sleeve, we will be at the mercy of others. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out, "How can our country's science and technology catch up with the international advanced level? We must adopt an 'asymmetric' strategy to better leverage our own advantages." It is crucial to identify the correct follow-up and breakthrough strategies, adhering to the principles of active follow-up, careful selection, and judicious action. Enhance technological awareness and strengthen the creation of original designs. For those areas where we are confident, we should plan ahead, increase investment, and accelerate the pace of catching up.

发展独有的“杀手铜“,确保不被敌实施技术突袭。如果我们没有一招鲜、几招鲜,最终还是要受制千人。习近平总书记指出,“我国科技如何赶超国际先进水平?要采取`非对称'战略,更好发挥自己的优势"。要确定正确的跟进和突破策略,按照主动跟进、精心选择、有所为有所不为的方针,提高技术认知力,加强独创性设计,对看准的,要超前规划布局,加大投入力度,加速赶超步伐。"

13) This section interestingly suggests China should contribute its insights to the global innovation system and foster a benevolent cultural philosophy towards science and technology:

"Scientific and technological innovation is an important engine for the development of human society and a powerful weapon to address many global challenges. Scientific and technological achievements should benefit all mankind and should not become means to restrict or contain the development of other countries. We must proactively engage in global science and technology governance, offer insights from Chinese wisdom and foster a culture of the common good for science and technology. This approach will ensure that scientific and technological advancements contribute more significantly to building a community of common destiny for humankind.

科技创新是人类社会发展的重要引擎,是应对许多全球性挑战的有力武器。科技成果应该造福全人类,而不应该成为限制、遏制其他国家发展的手段。要深度参与全球科技治理,贡献中国智慧,塑造科技向善的文化理念,让科技更好增进人类福扯,让中国科技为推动构建人类命运共同体作出更大贡献。"

Stay tuned for my detailed analysis in the coming days, where I’ll break down China’s three-pronged strategy toward technology security:

- Prong 1: Preserve and fortify competitiveness advantages (e.g., electronics, renewable energy equipment and vehicles)

- Prong 2: Address relative technological deficiencies (e.g., semiconductors)

- Prong 3: Secure new technology frontiers (e.g., artificial intelligence)

In the meantime, you can read the translation here: strategictranslation.org/articles/safeg….

Thanks to the editorial at @CSTranslate for their valuable feedback and editorial assistance!

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