Thread by @CulperResearch

1) We are short AppLovin $APP, an AdTech platform for mobile games. Having peaked at $173 billion in market cap, we believe AppLovin could go down as the single largest stock promotion unraveling since at least the GFC. Our full report is now available on our website, culperresearch.com

2) $APP shares are up ~25x in the past 2 years on $APP's promotion of supposed breakthrough AI tech, "AXON 2.0." $APP describes AXON 2.0 as a "black box" and investors seem content with this. We believe it's a smokescreen, and $APP's true secret sauce is far more nefarious.

3) In its mobile gaming business, we believe $APP has systematically deployed, then exploited incredibly dangerous app permissions that enable in-app ads themselves to force-feed silent, backdoor app installations directly onto users' phones, with just a single click.

4) Given $APP's notorious UX gimmicks i.e., multiple "X" outs and fake countdowns, many clicks are inadvertent. Yet they potentially instantly trigger downloads anyway. $APP's entire business centers on app installs: this is AdTech's version of "rolling the truck down the hill."

5) Our report documents the full step-by-step process by which $APP has smuggled these "direct download" permissions into not only its own games, but thousands of highly popular games including Subway Surfers, 8 Ball Pool, Wordscapes, and Angry Birds.

6) We consulted renowned ad fraud researcher Dr. Ben Edelman to ensure our correct understanding of the abilities and functioning. He confirmed, adding that $APP also integrated the ability to "flip the switch" based on e.g., users IP address, location, activity - at its whim.

7) We believe these installations happen at unprecedented scale. $APP's own employees brag publicly of their ability to initiate "direct downloads for instant access to games from ads" and refer to "the ad product for Direct Download" as "the company’s top revenue driver.”

8a) We provide a case study: "Animal Restaurant" (10M+ downloads) -- (a) users complain the app is automatically downloading other games, namely "Bricks n Balls" which is/was owned by $APP's own studio (b) Bricks n Balls reviews then allege that it too downloads without consent.

8b) 3P download data for Bricks n Balls shows two highly irregular download spikes in Android, in May and Sept 2023, in Brazil and India respectively. This was just as $APP signed two new OEM partners - a precondition to the illicit download behavior - in those exact regions.