🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 Russia has suffered nearly 800,000 casualties in Ukraine. ~Unclassified estimate from US European Command
Read through the thread below to see what else General Cavoli shared in his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. 🧵⬇️
1/10
Losses:
💥3000 Tanks
💥9000 AFVs
💥13,000 artillery systems
💥400 air defense systems
During the hearing he actually said 4000 tanks, which is closer to OSINT tallies; 9000 AFVs is likewise a conservative figure; 13,000 arty must include mortars; 400 AD looks about right.
2/10
He states Russia "is on pace to replace all [losses]", but this is missing important context. They aren't producing new vehicles in any large quantity, but rather refurbishing vehicles from storage. Once those stocks are exhausted production will plummet. 🎥 via @hizzo_jay
3/10
Russia's ability to replace all their air defense losses (especially advanced radars) is highly questionable as well. Russia's difficulty in scaling production of air defense systems such as S-400 is well documented.
4/10defensenews.com/industry/2023/…
Russia's ability to produce 250,000 artillery rounds per month is impressive on paper, but we must remember that this is inclusive of 152mm & 122mm calibres, and possibly mortar bombs as well. Western production of 155mm & 105mm ammunition will likely match it by year end.
5/10
☠️☣️☢️ "Russia also maintains *robust* chemical and biological weapons programs", this is stronger language than what was written in the Department of Defense's 2023 Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction.
6/10
🇷🇺🇰🇵 Cavoli reaffirms the extent of known Russian-DPRK cooperation: millions of artillery shells; various missiles and weapons systems, with 13,000 containers delivered in the last year. "Russia is almost certainly transferring missile technology to Pyongyang" as payment.
7/10
🇷🇺🇮🇷 Cavoli discloses that Russia has received over 400 short range ballistic missiles from Iran. The last publicly reported estimate I saw was from the Ukrainians: ~200 Fath-360s.
8/10
SAG-U has delivered $66 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. For context, ~$30 billion in PDA from the US has been committed to date, though not quite all delivered. USAI deliveries are probably somewhere $5-$10 billion. So SAG-U deliveries are about 50% US origin.
9/10
I'll conclude with a statistic Cavoli offered about FMS:
Of the $118 billion in total Foreign Military Sales in FY24, $68 billion, or 58%, was to Europe. From FY17-FY21 it averaged just $11 billion annually, so its up 600%.
10/10 defensearchives.com/news/united-st…
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