๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ฆ๐ท๐บ Russia has suffered nearly 800,000 casualties in Ukraine. ~Unclassified estimate from US European Command
Read through the thread below to see what else General Cavoli shared in his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. ๐งตโฌ๏ธ
1/10
Read through the thread below to see what else General Cavoli shared in his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. ๐งตโฌ๏ธ
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Losses:
๐ฅ3000 Tanks
๐ฅ9000 AFVs
๐ฅ13,000 artillery systems
๐ฅ400 air defense systems
During the hearing he actually said 4000 tanks, which is closer to OSINT tallies; 9000 AFVs is likewise a conservative figure; 13,000 arty must include mortars; 400 AD looks about right.
2/10
๐ฅ3000 Tanks
๐ฅ9000 AFVs
๐ฅ13,000 artillery systems
๐ฅ400 air defense systems
During the hearing he actually said 4000 tanks, which is closer to OSINT tallies; 9000 AFVs is likewise a conservative figure; 13,000 arty must include mortars; 400 AD looks about right.
2/10
He states Russia "is on pace to replace all [losses]", but this is missing important context. They aren't producing new vehicles in any large quantity, but rather refurbishing vehicles from storage. Once those stocks are exhausted production will plummet. ๐ฅ via @hizzo_jay
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3/10
Russia's ability to replace all their air defense losses (especially advanced radars) is highly questionable as well. Russia's difficulty in scaling production of air defense systems such as S-400 is well documented.
4/10defensenews.com/industry/2023/โฆ
4/10defensenews.com/industry/2023/โฆ
Russia's ability to produce 250,000 artillery rounds per month is impressive on paper, but we must remember that this is inclusive of 152mm & 122mm calibres, and possibly mortar bombs as well. Western production of 155mm & 105mm ammunition will likely match it by year end.
5/10
5/10
โ ๏ธโฃ๏ธโข๏ธ "Russia also maintains *robust* chemical and biological weapons programs", this is stronger language than what was written in the Department of Defense's 2023 Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction.
6/10
6/10
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1850191971974881592
๐ท๐บ๐ฐ๐ต Cavoli reaffirms the extent of known Russian-DPRK cooperation: millions of artillery shells; various missiles and weapons systems, with 13,000 containers delivered in the last year. "Russia is almost certainly transferring missile technology to Pyongyang" as payment.
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7/10
๐ท๐บ๐ฎ๐ท Cavoli discloses that Russia has received over 400 short range ballistic missiles from Iran. The last publicly reported estimate I saw was from the Ukrainians: ~200 Fath-360s.
8/10
8/10
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1832435571287052448
SAG-U has delivered $66 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. For context, ~$30 billion in PDA from the US has been committed to date, though not quite all delivered. USAI deliveries are probably somewhere $5-$10 billion. So SAG-U deliveries are about 50% US origin.
9/10
9/10
I'll conclude with a statistic Cavoli offered about FMS:
Of the $118 billion in total Foreign Military Sales in FY24, $68 billion, or 58%, was to Europe. From FY17-FY21 it averaged just $11 billion annually, so its up 600%.
10/10 defensearchives.com/news/united-stโฆ
Of the $118 billion in total Foreign Military Sales in FY24, $68 billion, or 58%, was to Europe. From FY17-FY21 it averaged just $11 billion annually, so its up 600%.
10/10 defensearchives.com/news/united-stโฆ
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