Some charts that caught my eye from Bain's global private equity 2025 report
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1/ Global buyout exits increased +34% y/y in 2024 but fundraising for buyout funds dropped -23% y/y
2/ AUM for private equity increased at a 14% CAGR through 2015 to 2023, but remained flat through 2Q24
3/ Follow-on funds are becoming harder to raise for bottom quartile firms. Even top quartile funds having some challenges, but still able to raise effectively
4/ Deal value recovered in 2024 vs 2023, but remains muted vs 5 year average.
Europe, in particular, showed the most strength with 54% y/y increase and +5% vs 5 year average
5/ Similar data being broken down here but Europe saw the largest bounce in deal value at +54% y/y
6/ 2024 was a good year for larger deal sizes. Average deal was $849M vs $744M in 2023
7/ Public to private was almost 50% of all deal value of deals $5BN+
8/ Buyout deal value by sector
Most sectors rebounded in 2024 but still remain below 5 year averages
Telecom, media, retail, and industrials still well below 5 year average
Technology 28% above 5 year average
9/ Roughly 24% of all dry powder is now at least 4 years old, highest since 2017
10/ Median TEV multiples pretty consistent across North America and Europe, and both at or near all time highs
11/ Syndicated debt for LBOs saw a +83% y/y increase in 2024
LBO debt yield is higher at U.S. large corporates
12/ Private credit continuing to eat market share from syndicated markets, especially in middle market LBOs
13/ Sponsor to sponsor deal the only exit channel above 5 year average
IPOs -46% and strategic sale -27% vs 5 year average
14/ LPs and GPs both agree that exit environment is the biggest challenge to return generation for next 12 months
15/ Buyout distributions as a % of NAV lowest it has been in almost a decade
16/ Buyout net cash flow was negative through '22-23 after a record year in 2021
2024 closer to breakeven. Net cash flow highest during 2012 to 2017, which was roughly the middle of the ZIRP era
17/ Partially realized share of assets is highest it has been
This only looks at assets with a holding period of 5 years
Partial realization likely means dividend distribution, minority equity sales, asset divestitures etc. vs full sale
18/ Private equity secondary AUM as % of total AUM is at an all time high
19/ Secondaries and direct lending are the only two strategies where capital raised is higher vs 5 year average
Venture capital -57% vs 5 year average
Growth equity -35% vs 5 year average
Buyout PE -11% vs 5 year average
Real estate -46% vs 5 year average
20/ Average size of buyout funds closed dropped roughly 20% y/y
21/ Even more importantly, funds are taking longer to close than before over the past decade
22/ Top 10 funds made up 36% of capital raised in the buyout space, consistent with historical data but starting to trend higher
23/ US buyout IRR starting to converge closer to public markets
European buyout still comfortably outpacing the MSCI Europe index
24/ Median entry TEV multiples for technology companies remain higher vs other sectors
25/ Value creation estimate for private equity carve-out deals for pre-2012 deals vs post-2012 deals
Less overall value generated today with value from margin expansion having compressed the most for post-2012 deals
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