Thread by @BoringBiz_

Some charts that caught my eye from Bain's global private equity 2025 report

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1/ Global buyout exits increased +34% y/y in 2024 but fundraising for buyout funds dropped -23% y/y

2/ AUM for private equity increased at a 14% CAGR through 2015 to 2023, but remained flat through 2Q24

3/ Follow-on funds are becoming harder to raise for bottom quartile firms. Even top quartile funds having some challenges, but still able to raise effectively

4/ Deal value recovered in 2024 vs 2023, but remains muted vs 5 year average.

Europe, in particular, showed the most strength with 54% y/y increase and +5% vs 5 year average

5/ Similar data being broken down here but Europe saw the largest bounce in deal value at +54% y/y

6/ 2024 was a good year for larger deal sizes. Average deal was $849M vs $744M in 2023

7/ Public to private was almost 50% of all deal value of deals $5BN+

8/ Buyout deal value by sector

Most sectors rebounded in 2024 but still remain below 5 year averages

Telecom, media, retail, and industrials still well below 5 year average

Technology 28% above 5 year average

9/ Roughly 24% of all dry powder is now at least 4 years old, highest since 2017

10/ Median TEV multiples pretty consistent across North America and Europe, and both at or near all time highs

11/ Syndicated debt for LBOs saw a +83% y/y increase in 2024

LBO debt yield is higher at U.S. large corporates

12/ Private credit continuing to eat market share from syndicated markets, especially in middle market LBOs

13/ Sponsor to sponsor deal the only exit channel above 5 year average

IPOs -46% and strategic sale -27% vs 5 year average

14/ LPs and GPs both agree that exit environment is the biggest challenge to return generation for next 12 months

15/ Buyout distributions as a % of NAV lowest it has been in almost a decade

16/ Buyout net cash flow was negative through '22-23 after a record year in 2021

2024 closer to breakeven. Net cash flow highest during 2012 to 2017, which was roughly the middle of the ZIRP era

17/ Partially realized share of assets is highest it has been

This only looks at assets with a holding period of 5 years

Partial realization likely means dividend distribution, minority equity sales, asset divestitures etc. vs full sale

18/ Private equity secondary AUM as % of total AUM is at an all time high

19/ Secondaries and direct lending are the only two strategies where capital raised is higher vs 5 year average

Venture capital -57% vs 5 year average
Growth equity -35% vs 5 year average
Buyout PE -11% vs 5 year average
Real estate -46% vs 5 year average

20/ Average size of buyout funds closed dropped roughly 20% y/y

21/ Even more importantly, funds are taking longer to close than before over the past decade

22/ Top 10 funds made up 36% of capital raised in the buyout space, consistent with historical data but starting to trend higher

23/ US buyout IRR starting to converge closer to public markets

European buyout still comfortably outpacing the MSCI Europe index

24/ Median entry TEV multiples for technology companies remain higher vs other sectors

25/ Value creation estimate for private equity carve-out deals for pre-2012 deals vs post-2012 deals

Less overall value generated today with value from margin expansion having compressed the most for post-2012 deals