Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Expert in weighing medical evidence, cancer, COVID forecasting & mitigation, health disparities, financial analytics. 120 publications. PhD program director.

Apr 22, 8 tweets

🧵1 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

🌤️Only 1 in 5 days of the pandemic have seen transmission as low as today
🌤️1 in 196 actively infectious
⚡️BUT still 1.7 million weekly infections, resulting in >85,000 LC cases and up to 1,000 deaths

I'll walk you through it...

🧵2 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 6th year. See the small red line, bottom left. Notice how closely it tracks the median (gray), year 4 (yellow), & year 5 (orange).

Acknowledging caveats, those are plausible gist-level scenarios for months ahead.

🧵3 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Expect steady transmission bouncing up and down around the current national lull-level estimate the next several weeks. 200-350k daily infections nationally.

This is about as low as lulls bottom out anymore.

🧵4 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

🌤️Moderate Transmission: 9 states + DC
☀️High/Very High: None

Note, the CDC updated its dashboard as usual Friday BUT w/no state-level data. This previously warranted a note. None offered. Fortunately, the 3-day blackout is over.

🧵5 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Yes, a national "lull" but always with regional variation.

☀️1 in 240 in the West actively infectious
🌩️1 in 118 in the South (worse)

In Louisiana, it's still at about 1 in 90, using the PMC multiplier. 🌩️🌩️

🧵6 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

It might surprise you to learn that up to 1,000 Americans would be expected to die from the COVID infections they get this week -- during a transmission lull!

I guess you have not watched this video.

🧵7 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

If I have persuaded you to watch that 15-min video. Perhaps, you would be willing to go one step further.
🔴🔵

Watch this 50-min deep dive on where we are headed as reinfections accumulate.

🧵8 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Find the complete dashboard at

Use/improve and share across platforms. In the report (pg. 2), I note the CDC is making wastewater analytic ethics decisions via AI. 😮 More on that later. pmc19.com/data

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