Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Apr 22 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
🧵1 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

🌤️Only 1 in 5 days of the pandemic have seen transmission as low as today
🌤️1 in 196 actively infectious
⚡️BUT still 1.7 million weekly infections, resulting in >85,000 LC cases and up to 1,000 deaths

I'll walk you through it... Current Levels for Apr 21, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 196) New Daily Infections 244000 New Weekly Infections 1708000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 85,000 to 342,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 147) Average New Daily Infections 324800 New Infections During the Next Month 9744000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 487,000 to 1,949,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,500 to 5,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 62331000 Average Number of Infecti...
🧵2 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 6th year. See the small red line, bottom left. Notice how closely it tracks the median (gray), year 4 (yellow), & year 5 (orange).

Acknowledging caveats, those are plausible gist-level scenarios for months ahead. year over year graph, summarized in post
🧵3 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Expect steady transmission bouncing up and down around the current national lull-level estimate the next several weeks. 200-350k daily infections nationally.

This is about as low as lulls bottom out anymore. Past 12 months and forecast, summarized in post
🧵4 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

🌤️Moderate Transmission: 9 states + DC
☀️High/Very High: None

Note, the CDC updated its dashboard as usual Friday BUT w/no state-level data. This previously warranted a note. None offered. Fortunately, the 3-day blackout is over. Heat map of transmission from CDC data
🧵5 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Yes, a national "lull" but always with regional variation.

☀️1 in 240 in the West actively infectious
🌩️1 in 118 in the South (worse)

In Louisiana, it's still at about 1 in 90, using the PMC multiplier. 🌩️🌩️ CDC regional line graph with extrapolated PMC estimates, described in post
🧵6 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

It might surprise you to learn that up to 1,000 Americans would be expected to die from the COVID infections they get this week -- during a transmission lull!

I guess you have not watched this video.
🧵7 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

If I have persuaded you to watch that 15-min video. Perhaps, you would be willing to go one step further.
🔴🔵

Watch this 50-min deep dive on where we are headed as reinfections accumulate.
🧵8 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Find the complete dashboard at

Use/improve and share across platforms. In the report (pg. 2), I note the CDC is making wastewater analytic ethics decisions via AI. 😮 More on that later. pmc19.com/dataFull PMC dashboard, summarized in thread.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 14
🧵1/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹2.2 million weekly infections
🔹1 in 149 actively infectious
🔹>100,000 LC cases resulting from the week's infections
🔹>800 deaths resulting from the week's infections
🔹"Lull" transmission steady/slightly decliningCurrent Levels for Apr 14, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 149) New Daily Infections 320000 New Weekly Infections 2240000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 112,000 to 448,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,300 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 138) Average New Daily Infections 345366.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10361000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 518,000 to 2,072,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 60891000 Average Number of ...
🧵2/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

Year-over-year transmission (red line, lower left) is tracking the median (grey), year 4 (yellow), and year 5 (orange) closely.

If that trend continues, expect steady yet bumpy transmission the next couple months, until June/July.line graphs, described in tweet
🧵3/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

The heat map shows only 4 states in the CDC 'high' level and none in the 'very' high level.

Check local data. Those timing activities to lulls may see a clear opportunity.heat map, described in tweet
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 9
The NIH Clinical Center drops universal masking after 5 months of protecting patients, family, & staff.

Wastewater-derived estimates indicate 2.79 million Americans are getting Covid per week AND top actuaries suggest an American dies of Covid every 3 minutes.

🧵1/5 Masks are optional beginning April 11. Staff will mask on request.
These are the current wastewater-derived estimates of transmission.

2.79 million Covid infections/week in the U.S. in the current high "lull."
🧵2/5
This thread with video explains in exquisite detail how every 3 minutes in 2025 an American dies of Covid.

🧵3/5
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 7
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, April 7, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹1 in 120 actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 chance of exposure in a room of 50
🔹2.8 million weekly infections
🔹>140,000 resulting LC cases from the week's infections
🔹>1,000 deaths resulting from the week's infections Current Levels for Apr 7, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) New Daily Infections 399000 New Weekly Infections 2793000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 140,000 to 559,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 1,000 to 1,700 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 105) Average New Daily Infections 455766.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 13673000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 684,000 to 2,735,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,900 to 8,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 55591000 Average Number of...
2) Watch this video to understand how we use excess death data from one of the world's largest reinsurers to estimate how this week's infections will result in >1,000 deaths.
3) Transmission is steady or declining across much of the nation, but remains high in 11 states and DC, per the CDC.

Other sources, such as WastewaterSCAN, show a near doubling of transmission in the Northeast the past few weeks, so remain cautious.
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 31
🧵1 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹800-1,400 deaths expected to result from this week's infections (new stat, see video next Tweet)
🔹100,000+ Long Covid conditions to result from this week's infections
🔹1 in 142 actively infectious todayCurrent Levels for Mar 31, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 142) New Daily Infections 337000 New Weekly Infections 2359000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 118,000 to 472,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,400 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) Average New Daily Infections 397233.3333 New Infections During the Next Month 11917000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 596,000 to 2,383,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,300 to 7,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 52303000 Average Number of ...
🧵2 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

This video explains U.S. COVID excess death statistics, which we have incorporated into the dashboard.

🧵3 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

The transmission forecast suggests 300-500k daily infections the next month. If the data get retroactively corrected downward, we could dip to 200k.

Check local dashboards, and time events accordingly.Forecast graph, described in post
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 31
PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths

🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re
🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025
🔥Death data added to the dashboard
2) Full video links to learn more about COVID #ExcessDeaths in the U.S.

Dashboard page (presently featured): pmc19.com/data
Downloadable file: pmc19.com/data/deaths033…
Veed platform: veed.io/view/558039f4-…
3) The new #ExcessDeath statistics build on what we described in the 5-year pandemic anniversary video.

Watch from 12:14-20:00 to see how simplistic models underestimate COVID deaths. The Swiss Re model solves that problem. PMC extends that work.
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 24
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/5

🔹3 million new weekly infections in a persistent "lull" of substantial transmission
🔹1 in 107 (0.9%) of the population actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 regions in high/very high transmission (16 states and DC)Heat map of transmission, described in Tweet
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/5

We have had a steady state of about a half million infections the past several weeks. That's over 50 million estimated infections so far in 2025.

In a room of 40-50 people, there's a 1-in-3 chance of exposure if no testing/isolation.Current Levels for Mar 24, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.9% (1 in 107) New Daily Infections 446000 New Weekly Infections 3122000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 156,000 to 624,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 96) Average New Daily Infections 496566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 14897000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 745,000 to 2,979,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 50757000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.708526284 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Co...
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/5

There's a good chance of steady transmission the next month. Often, we'd head into a low lull about now. BUT there are no universal precautions, immunity is waning from the fall & winter 2023-24, & viral evolution looks less 'lucky.'Middle forecast shows 400-600k daily infections.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(