Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Today's Ukrainian drone attack on Russian air bases was launched using drones concealed in shipping containers. It shows that Ukraine has managed to weaponise the global logistics system, and will alarm security planners worldwide. ⬇️

2/ Video from the scene of the attacks shows drones flying out from the top of a standard 20 ft shipping container. Photos released by the Ukrainians show that the drones were concealed in hidden compartments, with the roofs likely ejected explosively.

3/ It's not clear how they were controlled, but judging from the fact that pictures seem to have got back to Ukraine in real time, some kind of satellite control - perhaps through a relay in the containers - seems likely.

4/ The drivers of the trucks carrying the containers seem to have been unaware of their cargoes. It's likely that they were ordinary commercial truck drivers who had taken contracts to deliver the containers to specific places across Russia by approximately the same time.

5/ The containers were clearly assembled outside Russia, most likely in Ukraine, and then shipped across borders - possibly via Georgia or Central Asia - to their targets. This isn't the first time that Ukraine has used this method.

6/ On 8 October 2022, the Kerch Bridge was badly damaged by a massive bomb concealed inside a trailer hauled by a Russian truck. It had been shipped from Odesa via Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, as this thread details.

7/ Armenia and the Central Asian states are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led customs union. Customs checks are done at the EEU border, which provides a back door into Russia for many kinds of smuggled goods.

8/ Alternatively, it's possible that the containers could have been shipped directly into Russia, as there's plenty of possibilities for doing so in the Baltic or the Far East. Either way, they were not detected when they entered Russian or while they were en route.

9/ Russian freight haulers receive delivery orders via websites such as ATI. The one below was for the cargo which blew up on the Kerch Bridge in October 2022. It's likely that the delivery of the drone containers was arranged similarly.

10/ It's unsurprising that the drones weren't detected. In 2024, Russia's container market stood at 6.4 million TEUs - in other words, the equivalent of 6.4 million 20-foot containers. It's physically impossible to check those sorts of numbers.

11/ This is, of course, a nightmare scenario for security planners worldwide. Approximately 866 million TEUs were shipped worldwide in 2024 alone. As Ukraine has just shown, any of them could contain drones or explosives that can be delivered to any sensitive target. /end

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