1/ Today's Ukrainian drone attack on Russian air bases was launched using drones concealed in shipping containers. It shows that Ukraine has managed to weaponise the global logistics system, and will alarm security planners worldwide. ⬇️
2/ Video from the scene of the attacks shows drones flying out from the top of a standard 20 ft shipping container. Photos released by the Ukrainians show that the drones were concealed in hidden compartments, with the roofs likely ejected explosively.
3/ It's not clear how they were controlled, but judging from the fact that pictures seem to have got back to Ukraine in real time, some kind of satellite control - perhaps through a relay in the containers - seems likely.
4/ The drivers of the trucks carrying the containers seem to have been unaware of their cargoes. It's likely that they were ordinary commercial truck drivers who had taken contracts to deliver the containers to specific places across Russia by approximately the same time.
5/ The containers were clearly assembled outside Russia, most likely in Ukraine, and then shipped across borders - possibly via Georgia or Central Asia - to their targets. This isn't the first time that Ukraine has used this method.
6/ On 8 October 2022, the Kerch Bridge was badly damaged by a massive bomb concealed inside a trailer hauled by a Russian truck. It had been shipped from Odesa via Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, as this thread details.
7/ Armenia and the Central Asian states are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led customs union. Customs checks are done at the EEU border, which provides a back door into Russia for many kinds of smuggled goods.
8/ Alternatively, it's possible that the containers could have been shipped directly into Russia, as there's plenty of possibilities for doing so in the Baltic or the Far East. Either way, they were not detected when they entered Russian or while they were en route.
9/ Russian freight haulers receive delivery orders via websites such as ATI. The one below was for the cargo which blew up on the Kerch Bridge in October 2022. It's likely that the delivery of the drone containers was arranged similarly.
10/ It's unsurprising that the drones weren't detected. In 2024, Russia's container market stood at 6.4 million TEUs - in other words, the equivalent of 6.4 million 20-foot containers. It's physically impossible to check those sorts of numbers.
11/ This is, of course, a nightmare scenario for security planners worldwide. Approximately 866 million TEUs were shipped worldwide in 2024 alone. As Ukraine has just shown, any of them could contain drones or explosives that can be delivered to any sensitive target. /end
1/ The energy situation in Crimea is steadily worsening as Ukrainian drones systematically destroy power facilities across the peninsula. Russian warblogger 'Two Majors' says that Russia's air defences are being crippled by a lack of coordination. ⬇️
2/ Recent attacks by Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces have hit dozens of electricity substations and other energy facilities across Crimea in recent weeks, as well as logistics hubs and road transportation. 'Two Majors' says the situation is still deteriorating:
3/ "Stabilisation can only be described as slowing the deterioration of the situation on the peninsula, achieved through the titanic efforts of volunteers and military personnel. The enemy continues to strike critical energy facilities in Crimea and Sevastopol daily.
1/ Ukraine's systematic destruction of Wildberries warehouses across Russia should be understood as an act of psychological warfare intended to remind Russians of the ruinous 1990s, argues RIA Novosti correspondent Sergei Shilov in a lengthy commentary. ⬇️
2/ Writing on the 'Witnesses of Bayraktar' Telegram channel that Shilov co-manages with RT correspondent Alexander Karchenko, Shilov says that Ukraine aims "to "flood" Russia with chaos" by striking at "a more vulnerable target: the public psyche."
3/ "The operation’s primary objective is not merely to manufacture a crisis—though that is certainly part of their aim. Above all, they seek to shape the perception of the civilian population.
1/ Does the Russian soldier in your life need something to entertain him? A Russian entrepreneur has come up with the perfect answer: a board game called Silapoly which features 'Uncle Vova', the Oreshnik missile, the FSB, and anything else needed to control Russia. ⬇️
2/ Silapoly is an adaptation of the classic board game Monopoly that relocates the action and game mechanics for a (satirical?) depiction of modern Russia. The player must "build an empire, manage money, and fight for power."
3/ According to the product description, the game "combines strategy, economic mechanics, politics, history, and the atmosphere of modern Russia". Like in Monopoly, players are dealt cards and purchase assets to gain the upper hand.
1/ It's time for another purge of the Russian army, along the lines of Stalin's Great Purge of 1937, says Russian warblogger 'Two Majors'. He castigates the army's culture of shifting responsibility and performative work for its systematic failures in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ The Russian army's bureaucratic culture has created a "system of reports, legal squabbles, and endless shifting of responsibility in military affairs". However, he says, it "has outlived its usefulness and is directly damaging the military sphere of the Russian Federation."
3/ "You can fulfill all the demands of senior staff and immediate superiors, receive awards, and be in good standing, while being an outright scoundrel when it comes to defending the country.
1/ Following political pressure, Wildberries' CEO Tatyana Kim – Russia's richest woman – says that the company will compensate its sellers for their losses despite a recent change of its terms and conditions that absolved it of liability. ⬇️
2/ Colossal quantities of goods – likely hundreds of millions of items – have been destroyed in Ukraine's recent drone strikes on several Wildberries warehouses. Forbes Russia estimates the total damage so far to be as much as 283–303 billion rubles ($3.60–3.86 billion).
3/ Some individual traders have sustained huge losses. One company alone, Russian clothing brand Finn Flare, says it has lost goods worth over 100 million rubles ($1.28 million) in the fire caused by the attack on the Wildberries warehouse in Elektrostal.
1/ The sight of more burning warehouses has prompted angry denunciations from Russian warbloggers of the "bureaucratic pimples" who are allegedly sabotaging air defences. Anti-drone mobile fire teams, in particular, are said to be in disarray. ⬇️
"Today, the enemy attacked the Wildberries warehouses again. Successfully—for the enemy, that is. It appears we’ve lost two major logistics terminals at once: in Krasnodar and Nevinnomyssk."
3/ "There are plenty of photos, but I won’t be posting them. Things are just as bad for the enemy: our side didn’t take it lying down and, judging by the information available, have wiped out two similarly large terminals in Odesa and Mykolaiv.