Thread by @michael_hoerger

1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Current transmission (red line) closely tracks that of summer 2023 (yellow line).

We expect to break 500k daily infections between July 9 and the end of July. Our current forecast...

2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Our current forecast is a bit more aggressive, predicting breaking 500k daily infections by July 9. The 2023 trend suggests end of July.

The 95% confidence interval shows large variation. Note that...

3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that CDC and Biobot both had retroactive corrections to last week's data, meaning the relative "lull" will last a little longer than the uncorrected data suggested. No big news on NB.1.8.1.

All good news, but...

4) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

But even in a *relative* "lull," transmission is high by public health metrics. This week's infections may result in >80,000 #LongCovid conditions and >600 excess deaths.

Current transmission is largely...

5) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Transmission is largely hitting the South and West to a greater degree currently.

However, notice transmission has been quite 'High' (per CDC) in DC as well. Bad news for those at rallies there.

Note that...

6) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that people in the West (1 in 141) and South (1 in 172) are much more likely to be infectious than those in the Midwest (1 in 261) and Northeast (1 in 248).

For more detail...

7) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

For more detail, check out our graphs & report on the web:

Next week, we will start to roll out a big (non statsy) update that should help with more granular local and international data.

Please share 😷👍pmc19.com/data