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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Jun 17, 2025 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Current transmission (red line) closely tracks that of summer 2023 (yellow line).

We expect to break 500k daily infections between July 9 and the end of July. Our current forecast...Year over year graph of tranmission
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Our current forecast is a bit more aggressive, predicting breaking 500k daily infections by July 9. The 2023 trend suggests end of July.

The 95% confidence interval shows large variation. Note that...Past 12 months of transmission (U.S.) and forecast
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that CDC and Biobot both had retroactive corrections to last week's data, meaning the relative "lull" will last a little longer than the uncorrected data suggested. No big news on NB.1.8.1.

All good news, but...10 pandemic waves. Soon 11
4) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

But even in a *relative* "lull," transmission is high by public health metrics. This week's infections may result in >80,000 #LongCovid conditions and >600 excess deaths.

Current transmission is largely...Current Levels for Jun 16, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 208) New Daily Infections 230000 New Weekly Infections 1610000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 81,000 to 322,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) Average New Daily Infections 398400 New Infections During the Next Month 11952000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 598,000 to 2,390,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,300 to 7,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 73043000 Average Number of Infect...
5) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Transmission is largely hitting the South and West to a greater degree currently.

However, notice transmission has been quite 'High' (per CDC) in DC as well. Bad news for those at rallies there.

Note that...C19 heat map using CDC data
6) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that people in the West (1 in 141) and South (1 in 172) are much more likely to be infectious than those in the Midwest (1 in 261) and Northeast (1 in 248).

For more detail...CDC regional transmission graph with PMC estimates of the proportion of the population actively infectious, noted in Tweet.
7) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

For more detail, check out our graphs & report on the web:

Next week, we will start to roll out a big (non statsy) update that should help with more granular local and international data.

Please share 😷👍pmc19.com/dataFull dashboard, summarized in thread

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 6
PMC COVlD Update, April 6, 2026

Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.

We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.

🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)! Heat map with PMC estimates
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.

🧵2 of 10 Alabama Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low* Arkansas Low California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Low District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Low Guam Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Very Low Iowa Very Low Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine Very Low Maryland Low Massachusetts Very Low Michigan Low Minnesota Very Low Mississippi Very High*
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.

🧵3 of 10 Missouri Moderate* Montana Very Low Nebraska Very Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Very Low New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota Very Low* Ohio Very Low Oklahoma Low* Oregon Very Low Pennsylvania Low Rhode Island Very Low South Carolina Very Low South Dakota Low Tennessee Very High Texas Low Utah Very Low Vermont Moderate Virginia Moderate Washington Very Low West Virginia Low Wisconsin Very Low Wyoming Very Low
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 3
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.

Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama Very Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas Low* California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Low Iowa Moderate Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Low Maine Very Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Very Low Michigan High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High* Missouri Low Montana Very Low Nebraska Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Low* New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text. Column 2: Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 732,000 Infections the Past Week 5,220,000 Infections in 2026 24,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.04 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 146,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 261,000 to 1,040,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 17
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:

🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5 Heat map from CDC data with PMC estimates. Description of "Very High" states in next post
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.

11 states have Very High COVlD levels:

🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5 Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 52 (1.9%) New Daily Infections 941,000 Infections the Past Week 6,020,000 Infections in 2026 18,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.01 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 47,000 to 188,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 301,000 to 1,200,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 270 to 450 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths Resulting ...
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.

The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.

🧵3/5 1) Graph of 12 waves 2) Barometer showing above-average transmission 3) Year over year graph 4) Forecast for transmission to decline and then percolate at high levels
Read 5 tweets

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