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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Jun 17 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Current transmission (red line) closely tracks that of summer 2023 (yellow line).

We expect to break 500k daily infections between July 9 and the end of July. Our current forecast...Year over year graph of tranmission
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Our current forecast is a bit more aggressive, predicting breaking 500k daily infections by July 9. The 2023 trend suggests end of July.

The 95% confidence interval shows large variation. Note that...Past 12 months of transmission (U.S.) and forecast
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that CDC and Biobot both had retroactive corrections to last week's data, meaning the relative "lull" will last a little longer than the uncorrected data suggested. No big news on NB.1.8.1.

All good news, but...10 pandemic waves. Soon 11
4) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

But even in a *relative* "lull," transmission is high by public health metrics. This week's infections may result in >80,000 #LongCovid conditions and >600 excess deaths.

Current transmission is largely...Current Levels for Jun 16, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 208) New Daily Infections 230000 New Weekly Infections 1610000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 81,000 to 322,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) Average New Daily Infections 398400 New Infections During the Next Month 11952000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 598,000 to 2,390,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,300 to 7,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 73043000 Average Number of Infect...
5) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Transmission is largely hitting the South and West to a greater degree currently.

However, notice transmission has been quite 'High' (per CDC) in DC as well. Bad news for those at rallies there.

Note that...C19 heat map using CDC data
6) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that people in the West (1 in 141) and South (1 in 172) are much more likely to be infectious than those in the Midwest (1 in 261) and Northeast (1 in 248).

For more detail...CDC regional transmission graph with PMC estimates of the proportion of the population actively infectious, noted in Tweet.
7) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

For more detail, check out our graphs & report on the web:

Next week, we will start to roll out a big (non statsy) update that should help with more granular local and international data.

Please share 😷👍pmc19.com/dataFull dashboard, summarized in thread

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 8
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
1/9
🔥🔥🔥Very High: Arizona (Yuma)
🔥🔥High: Indiana and Vermont
🔥Moderate: Nebraska and Alabama

Data only go through late November, and levels often increase following Thanksgiving. Heat map and PMC estimates of transmission (1 in 102 actively infectious).
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
2/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Arizona is Very High, but sites were only online in the Yuma area. Indiana remains high.

MI and MS have considerable uncertainty.

DC is exceptionally low. Alabama Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very High* 1 in 18 (5.7%) Arkansas Very Low* 1 in 138 (0.7%) California Very Low 1 in 574 (0.2%) Colorado Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Connecticut Low 1 in 91 (1.1%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 307 (0.3%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 5,777 (0.0%) Florida Very Low 1 in 494 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 180 (0.6%) Guam Very Low 1 in 289 (0.3%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 704 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 121 (0.8%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) Indiana High 1 in 30 (3.3%) Iowa Low 1 in 83 (1.2%) Kansas Low 1 in 105 (1.0%) Kentucky Very L...
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
3/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Vermont remains High. Tennessee has fallen rapidly from a quick surge.

Data quality are low in NY. Missouri Very Low 1 in 176 (0.6%) Montana Very Low 1 in 136 (0.7%) Nebraska Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 372 (0.3%) New Hampshire Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 217 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) New York Very Low* 1 in 260 (0.4%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 233 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 101 (1.0%) Ohio Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 150 (0.7%) Pennsylvania Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 187 (0.5%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 144 (0.7%) South Dakota Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) Tennessee Very Low...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 23
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10

With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.

We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections. Heat map: Indiana and Arkansas with "moderate" transmission. All others, "low" or "very low" (CDC categories).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10

State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.

Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?

Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting). Alabama Very Low 1 in 153 (0.7%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 272 (0.4%) Arizona Low 1 in 63 (1.6%) Arkansas Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) California Very Low 1 in 365 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low 1 in 137 (0.7%) Connecticut Low 1 in 103 (1.0%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 262 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 418 (0.2%) Florida Very Low 1 in 408 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 292 (0.3%) Guam Very Low 1 in 887 (0.1%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Indiana Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Iowa Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Kansas Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Ke...
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10

State-level estimates (continued).

Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission. Missouri Very Low 1 in 202 (0.5%) Montana Very Low* 1 in 114 (0.9%) Nebraska Low 1 in 95 (1.1%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 228 (0.4%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 192 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 151 (0.7%) New York Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Dakota Very Low* 1 in 116 (0.9%) Ohio Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 194 (0.5%) Pennsylvania Very Low 1 in 111 (0.9%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 167 (0.6%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) South Dakota Very Low 1 in 127 (0.8%) Tennes...
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 8
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵

🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon. Year over year graph, emphasizing that levels commonly rise in mid November
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵

The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.

There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month. Close up of the most recent 3 months of data, including the forecast.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵

We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.

Do a DIY fit test if you've been putting it off. Graph of the 11 waves
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 3
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
1 of 9 🧵

The relative "lull" in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to go much lower.

✨1 in 209 people are estimated actively infectious, likely the lowest levels of 2025 nationwide.

Get boosted. Stock up on masks, tests, & filters. Year-over-year graph
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
2 of 9 🧵

No data presently suggest the rise of a winter wave any earlier than "usual."

If following historical trends, transmission will pick up Nov 15-29. Last year's rise was atypically late. Forecasted transmission
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
3 of 9 🧵

Expect rising misinformation/disinformation as transmission heats up:
🔹Abuse of community notes, particularly surrounding wastewater methodology
🔹Paid bot army attacks, especially about boosters & masks
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 28
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Transmission typically accelerates in mid-November.

We are currently in a relative 'lull.' We estimate about a quarter-million new daily infections with 1 in 185 people actively infectious. Still bad, likely to get worse.

1/9 🧵 year over year graph
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Our forecast through November 8 calls for flat transmission.

Nothing yet indicates the onset of a winter wave, but it would also be atypical for the lull to last much longer than another 2-3 weeks.

2/9 🧵 Graph of recent transmission and current forecast
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

We estimate 264,000 new daily infections during this 'lull' period.

Biobot data have returned. Our substitute data from WWS last week correlated r=.97 (near perfect) with that, but Biobot did retroactively increase recent estimates.

3/9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 21
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

SARS-CoV-2 transmission has fallen.
🔹1 in 191 (0.5%) actively infectious
🔹"Lull" levels at 20% of the summer peak
🔹255,000 new daily infections (still concerning)

Many will knock out higher-risk activities the next 2-4 weeks.
🧵1/11 Graph of the 11 waves, shows current lull.
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

"Lull" transmission remains dangerous:
🔹1.8 million estimated new weekly infections
🔹>90,000 estimated new #LongCOVID conditions from this week's infections
🔹>500 excess deaths to result from this week's infections

🧵2/11 Infections Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 191 (0.5%) New Daily Infections 255,000 Infections the Past Week 1,800,000 Infections in 2025 191,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.69 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 13,000 to 51,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 90,000 to 360,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 70 to 120 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths ...
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

Exposure risk during "lull" transmission remains high when engaging in many social interactions.

Interacting with 25 people yields a 12% chance of exposure. 100 people? 41% chance of exposure, assuming no testing/isolation.

🧵3/11 Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 0.5% 2 1.0% 3 1.6% 4 2.1% 5 2.6% 10 5.1% 15 7.6% 20 10.0% 25 12.3% 30 14.5% 50 23.1% 75 32.5% 100 40.8% 200 64.9% 300 79.2%
Read 11 tweets

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