Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Expert in weighing medical evidence, cancer, COVID forecasting & mitigation, health disparities, financial analytics. 120 publications. PhD program director.

Aug 12, 12 tweets

PMC COVID Dashboard, August 11, 2025 (U.S.)

The CDC says transmission is heating up.

"Very High" (3)
🔺Guam
🔺Hawai'i
🔺Louisiana

"High" (12)
🔺Alabama
🔺Alaska
🔺California
🔺Colorado
🔺Delaware
🔺Florida
🔺Indiana
🔺Mississippi
🔺Nevada
🔺S. Carolina
🔺Texas
🔺Utah

🧵1/12

Transmission is highest in these regions. Graphics note the CDC levels and PMC prevalence estimates.

🔥Louisiana (Very High): 1 in 19 actively infectious
🔥Guam (Very High): 1 in 26
🔥Hawai'i (Very High): 1 in 28
🔥Texas (High): 1 in 45

🧵2/12

Statewide transmission remains "High" in Florida, according to the CDC. PMC estimates 1 in 50 actively infectious.

Several cities report "Very High" transmission. Several sites are offline.

🧵3/12

Statewide transmission remains "High" in California, according to the CDC, but notice that transmission is "Very High" in many cities.

PMC estimates 1 in 56 are actively infectious statewide, and at least 1 in 40 in the dark red zones.

🧵4/12

New Today:

For each state, the PMC dashboard now lists CDC levels, prevalence estimates, and chances of an exposure based on gathering size.

This chart continues in the next post.


🧵5/12 pmc19.com/data

In addition to our new state-level table (continued here), you can always scroll down further on the dashboard to find links to more CDC and non-CDC data in your area (if available).

Direct link to those sources:

🧵6/12 pmc19.com/data/index.php…

Our forecast continues to show levels likely rising.

There are many sites offline and huge data lags, so these real-time estimates are imperfect. Notice the low versus high estimates in the forecast.

Much uncertainty. Track locally as best you can.
🧵7/12

Notice that current transmission (red) is closely tracking that of the Delta wave (blue, 4 years ago).

I cannot imagine transmission peaking much lower than that. With uncertainty (NY mostly offline), the peak could be marginally higher or wider.

🧵8/12

We remain in a pandemic. An estimated 1 in 93 are actively infectious today.

Expect the real-time estimates to bounce up or down a bit with the sites offline and lags in reporting. Biobot (20% model weight) took the week off entirely.

🧵9/12

Today in the U.S.

🔥More transmission than 53% of days from pandemic onset to present
🔥3.6 million weekly infections
🔥Actuarial-derived estimates suggest this week's infections will cause 1,300-2,100 excess deaths

🧵10/12

Register and join us Sunday for the "Back-to-School Health Forum."


Could you comment here with any questions you'd like me to answer on Sunday?

🧵11/12 bit.ly/MTAHealthForum

Find the full PMC dashboard online: pmc19.com/data

Please use/improve/share across platforms.

I'm on lG a bit more lately trying to boost C19 awareness, so find me there too.
instagram.com/michael_hoerge…

🧵12/12

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